by Ben Taylor

Growing concern over President Samia’s respect for democratic norms
After President Samia Suluhu Hassan took office in March 2021, there were signs that she intended to “re-open” the country, both politically and economically. Her predecessor, President John Magufuli, had restricted the activities of opposition parties, and anyone critical of his government, as well as applying a firmly nationalist approach to economics that discouraged investment.

“Tanzania is less sinister and less mad since she took over,” wrote The Economist earlier this year. Right from the start, however, questions were being asked as to how concerted President Samia’s new direction would be, particularly on politics. In part, this was because President Magufuli remained popular both with the public and with some powerful figures within the ruling party, CCM, and it was clear that any pro-democracy moves the new President introduced would meet with resistance – resistance that would also carry the temptation and/or promise of a relatively easy ride in forthcoming elections. Would the demands of holding the party together trump her supposed democratic instincts? And in part, it was because President Samia’s own position was not well known. She had spent over five years as a loyal Vice President to her predecessor, without ever marking out her own position on key questions. How committed was she, truly, to moving the country in a more democratic direction?

A number of recent events and trends have led to rising concern that her commitment is lukewarm at best. One pan-African publication described this as Tanzania’s moment of truth, where “the red flags are getting redder.” Another went with “Back to bulldozer politics”.

A planned celebration in Mbeya in August of International Youth Day by the opposition party, Chadema, was blocked by the police. More than 500 young Chadema supporters were arrested as they attempted to gather in defiance of the ban. Several senior Chadema leaders – including secretary general John Mnyika, national vice chair, Tundu Lissu and central committee member Joseph Mbilinyi – were detained for 48 hours and allegedly roughed up by the police, and party leader Freeman Mbowe was also arrested. Police Commissioner, Awadh Juma Haji justified their actions by saying the police would do everything in their power “to resist such glaring threats to public order”.

Further, in recent months, numerous opposition figures have reportedly disappeared. In July, regional police in Tanga confirmed that they were holding Kombo Mbwana, a Chadema district leader – some 30 days after he went missing. He had not been presented before court, despite appeals by his lawyers. Two other party leaders – Dioniz Kipanya from Rukwa and Deusdedith Soka from Dar es Salaam – have gone missing in the past few weeks, with no word from authorities. In August, the Tanganyika Law Society (TLS) released a list of 83 people who had recently disappeared recently under mysterious circumstances.

There have also been other grounds for concern, too. There was the heavy-handed response to criticism of the controversial DP World contract to manage the port of Dar es Salaam (see TA136 and 137).

There was a recent announcement by Zanzibar’s police commissioner Hamad Khamis Hamad that they would review political speeches with the aim of identifying utterances made against the state or aiming to incite hatred. And there has been the reappointment of former close allies of President Magufuli to influential positions – most obviously the controversial Paul Makonda who was recently made regional commissioner for Arusha, after three years in the wilderness. He recently called himself the “favourite son of President Samia,” surely a knowing reference to the persistent rumours that he could be the illegitimate son of President Magufuli.

Even the reforms that the President herself had been strongly associated – such as establishing dialogue with opposition parties and forming commissions for criminal justice reform, constitutional reform and the running of elections – have slowed or stalled, showing little sign of progress in the past year. Recommendations are gathering dust on shelves, while local elections are due before the end of this year, and presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in October 2025.

Those elections are, of course, a major part of the context in which all of this is taking place. There is still an outside chance that President Samia may face a challenger in becoming the CCM presidential candidate. Having risen to the presidency through the untimely death of the previous incumbent, rather than through an election, as well as being the country’s first female president, President Samia could be forgiven for feeling nervous at the prospect of not delivering a victory as clear as that of President Magufuli. Indeed, such was the extent of his win in the 2020 official election results, she cannot hope to match that outcome, whether or not the country returns to a more credible democratic electoral process.

A second factor, particularly in the most recent developments, is the recent “Gen Z” protests in Kenya. Across several weeks, widespread protests by young Kenyans, organised on social media, piled pressure on President William Ruto to reverse tax changes. A heavy response by state security forces, which killed dozens, failed to quell the unrest, and eventually, President Ruto fired his entire cabinet and was forced to halt planned tax hikes.

When announcing the ban on Chadema’s youth day rally in Mbeya, Commissioner Haji specifically cited a statement by one Chadema youth leader that called upon opposition supporters to be “inspired by
our colleagues in Kenya”.

At the time of writing, the jury is still out on whether President Samia is genuinely committed to democratic reforms but having to proceed slowly in order to bring her party with her, or her stated commitment was only ever a strategy to buy herself time as the country’s new leader. What is clear, however, is that observers both within and outside the
country are becoming less willing to give her the benefit of the doubt, and that their doubts are growing.

by Ben Taylor

Thousands of Maasai gather to protest against evictions and are addressed by Arusha Regional Commissioner, Paul Makonda – Photo – IWGIA

Maasai evictions – and protests – and concessions
On August 18, 2024, hundreds of Maasai community members gathered to protest the denial of basic rights and the loss of their ancestral land in Ngorongoro, Tanzania. The protest is the latest in a series of actions against a government relocation plan aimed at moving 110,000 Maasai from Ngorongoro to Msomera, Sauni, and Kitwai, over 300 kilometers from their current homes.

Dressed in their traditional red clothing and holding leaves – as a symbol of peace recognized across many Tanzanian tribes – the demonstrators blocked the busy Ngorongoro-Serengeti Road. They carried posters, prayed, and marched, singing in the Maasai language to voice their grievances.

The government argues the relocation is essential to preserve the Ngorongoro Conservation Area, a UNESCO World Heritage site. “Due to escalating human-wildlife conflicts, overpopulation of humans and livestock, wide-spreading zoonotic diseases, shrinking wildlife corridor and grazing land, lack of safe water sources and poor sanitation, and the quest for socio-economic development of its citizens, the consensus was reached through a participatory and transparent process for a voluntary relocation program,” said Mudrik Ramadhan Soraga, the Zanzibar minister for Tourism and Heritage, speaking to a meeting of the World Heritage Committee in July in New Dehli, India.

Officials further maintain the relocation is voluntary, but residents have described the exercise as an eviction, pointing to the cutting off of essential services such as water and health to make their case. “Conservation is a good thing, we are not against it. We are against … discriminatory conservation, implemented in a militaristic way,” Maasai lawyer Denis Oleshangay told reporters. However, he said, “they are trying to make life so hard that no one will stay.”

The government has offered to build new homes to encourage “voluntary relocation” for those who agree to move to Msomera, as well as cash payments to support the move. The government reported having spent TSh 286 billion on the relocation effort, and said in early September that this has resulted in 9,778 residents moving since July 2022.

The immediate trigger for the latest protest appeared to be concerns that residents had been stripped of their right to vote in Ngorongoro. On August 3, some Ngorongoro residents alleged that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had transferred the names of voters from Ngorongoro to Msomera, a place where only 2% of Ngorongoro residents have relocated.

“We are shocked and saddened that the entire Ngorongoro Division, which currently has a population of 110,000, will not be voting at usual polling stations,” said James Moringe Mollel, Councillor of Loitile Ward. “They claimed the relocation was voluntary, but for example, I have been assigned to a hamlet in Msomera as my polling station, a place I’ve never even visited.”

Further, an official plan contained in the Government Gazette published on August 2, 2024, involved delisting 11 wards, 25 villages and 96 sub villages in Ngorongoro.

Prof Issa Shivji, one of Tanzania leading legal scholars, responded in a social media post that the villages’ delisting will have far-reaching legal and democratic implications for the people of Ngorongoro, and urged authorities to rethink their plan.

The protest than began on August 18th continued uninterrupted for five days, despite heavy-handed policing. According to some reports, this included the arrest of 39 members of the Maasai community. A week later, according to these same reports, the locations where the arrested were being held had not been revealed, and no charges had been brought.

The international human rights group, Amnesty, issued a statement calling on the government “to immediately disclose the whereabouts of the 40 arrested community members, grant them access to their lawyers, and due process, including being promptly brought before court to challenge the legality of their detention.”

Five days into the protest, the minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office responsible for Policy, Parliamentary Affairs and Coordination, William Lukuvi, addressed residents in Oloirobi Village, in Ngorongoro Ward. He was accompanied by the Minister of Constitutional and Legal Affairs, Prof Palamagamba Kabudi, Deputy Minister of Natural Resources and Tourism, Mr Danstan Kitandula, Arusha Regional Commissioner, Paul Makonda, and the Police Force’s Commissioner of Operations and Training, Awadh Juma Haji.

Mr Lukuvi said in his speech that he had been sent by President Samia Suluhu Hassan, and that he had been instructed to ensure health and education services must continue to be adequately delivered. “Education services must be fully provided, and hospital services must be fully available. I want Mr Makonda to ensure that in all areas where services have been suspended, they are restored so that residents do not face difficulties in accessing social services,” he stated.

Mr Lukuvi also said that President Hassan has directed that local government elections, scheduled for November, should be held in Ngorongoro, and preparations should proceed accordingly in the area as per existing boundaries. “The President has sent us to assure you that your rights to vote in the forthcoming elections remain intact. The director of Elections (from the Independent National Electoral Commission) will ensure all polling stations are set up to enable citizens to exercise their constitutional rights,” he said.

At the same meeting, Prof Kabudi affirmed that all Tanzanians are equal and assured the residents that they will receive the same rights and treatment as those in other regions.

Map showing Msomera relative to the Ngorongoro Conservation Area – data from openstreetmap.org

“Our country was founded by the Father of the Nation, Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, as one united nation built on love, peace, and unity. President Hassan upholds these principles and urges you to preserve peace and stability while safeguarding the nation. Let us embody the spirit of peace and love, just like all other Tanzanians,” he said.

In a separate development, the Arusha High Court has blocked implementation of the Government Notice that formally dissolved wards, villages, and hamlets, including those in the Ngorongoro District, until further court notice.

Thanking the government on behalf of the residents, Ngorongoro legislator Emmanuel Shangai said in the previous four years, residents have seen no leaders visiting the area, but today the President has sent them. “I urge you to trust the government because the President is for all Tanzanians. It is possible that some of her subordinates misled her, which is why these issues arose,” he said.

The government case
A series of articles in the (Tanzanian) Guardian newspaper presented the government case on the Ngorongoro issue, highlighting the legacy of a 1959 land use policy. Initially designed to accommodate human and wildlife populations, the policy aimed to harmonize their coexistence within the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA).

The Maasai were allowed to graze their livestock within the conservation area, maintaining their cultural practices and livelihood. And in return, certain restrictions were imposed to ensure that wildlife habitats were preserved and that the ecological integrity of the region was not compromised. These restrictions included prohibiting permanent structures and agricultural activities that could disrupt wildlife habitats.

However, over time, the growth of both human and wildlife populations has intensified the competition for scarce resources like water and grazing land. Pressure on wildlife habitats intensified, leading to more frequent and severe human-wildlife conflicts.

Recently, the Tanzanian government, through the Ngorongoro Conservation Authority Area (NCAA), announced its goal to improve the living conditions of residents in the Ngorongoro division, especially those within the conservation area. This aims to separate human and wildlife habitats to enhance conservation efforts.

by Ben Taylor

In August, President Samia Suluhu Hassan announced her fourth cabinet reshuffle of 2024 and her fourteenth since taking office in March 2021.

The latest reshuffle sees the return of former ministers Palamagamba Kabudi and William Lukuvi to the cabinet, while two other ministers, Angela Kairuki and Ummy Mwalimu, have been removed. Kabudi, who has been reappointed as the Minister of Constitutional and Legal Affairs, and Lukuvi takes up the post of State Minister at the Prime Minister’s Office, overseeing Policy, Parliament, and Coordination. This role effectively makes him the Chief Whip in Parliament.

Lukuvi’s appointment reflects the trust President Samia places in him. Prior to this ministerial appointment he had been a key political advisor to the President since January 2022.

Jenista Mhagama, who was replaced by Lukuvi, has been reassigned to the Ministry of Health, where she takes over from Ummy Mwalimu, who has been completely removed from the cabinet. Mwalimu’s depar­ture is widely attributed to recent challenges at the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF).

Pindi Hazara Chana has also been reappointed, in her case to the Ministry of Tourism and Natural Resources, replacing Angela Kairuki, who has been made an advisor to the President. Chana, who was removed from the Ministry of Tourism in February 2023 and later served in the Ministry of Sport and Culture and then Constitutional Affair Minister, now returns to her former role.

President Samia also announced the appointment of Hamza Johari as the new Attorney General succeeding Dr Eliezer Feleshi who has been appointed as a Justice at the court of appeal. Johari, who previously served as the Director General of the Tanzania Civil Aviation Authority, played a key role in negotiating the Dubai-Tanzania port agreement, which granted multinational DP World a 30-year contract to run, oper­ate, and develop Dar es Salaam port.

Earlier, in July, Tanzania’s information minister Nape Nnauye was removed from his post following an outcry over comments he made suggesting that elections could be rigged. He was filmed at a rally saying that he would help a fellow ruling party MP win in the 2025 election, and that “election results are not necessarily those in the ballot box, rather they depend on the person counting and making announce­ments”. He will now be replaced by former land and housing develop­ment minister Jerry Slaa.

At the same time, foreign minister January Makamba was also sacked, with Tanzania’s ambassador to Italy, Mahmoud Thabiti Kombo, chosen as his successor. This means that between 2021 and 2024, Tanzania has had five different foreign ministers, a post that the President describes as “the heart of the government.” The Ministry has not had any Minister who has stayed in the ministry for more than a year since President Samia Suluhu came into power.

Many observers have associated Makamba’s sacking with his political ambition for the Presidency. “She saw the previous minister was going against her expectations,” argued political analyst Thomas Kibwana. He added: “If the new minister is to serve for a long time, it is essential that they do not have excessive political ambitions that can detract him from the current responsibilities.”

In announcing the changes, President Samia did not mention specific reasons for her decisions but emphasised the need to put the national interest first. “Your own interests as a human being are secondary, but the nation’s interests come first,” she said. She referenced a Swahili proverb, saying that “positions of power are like borrowed clothes. If you use them well, and the owner sees you wearing them properly, looking neat, and not misbehaving they might let you keep the clothes for a while. But if they find that you are misbehaving with the clothes they lent you, they will not wait; they will take back their clothes.”

Since January, when Makamba had represented President Samia at the Italy-Africa summit, he had been on the receiving end of a social media campaign claiming that he used the trip to set up a network for his own bid for the Presidency.

Finally, the Director of the Prevention and Combating of Corruption Bureau (PCCB), CP Salum Hamduni, has been appointed as the Regional Administrative Secretary for Shinyanga Region. Hamduni, who was appointed as PCCB Director in May 2021, leaves the organization amid an ongoing public awareness campaign against election-related corrup­tion. Crispin Chalamila, a senior official from the President’s Office, has been appointed as the new Director of PCCB.

by Ben Taylor

Tundu Lissu announces presidential bid for 2025
Tundu Lissu, the vice chair of the opposition party Chadema, has announced that he has informed his party about his intention to run for the presidency of the United Republic of Tanzania through his party. He was also the party’s presidential candidate in 2020.

“I have indicated my intention as a presidential aspirant through my party officially,” Lissu explained in an online interview in August.

In 2020, Tundu Lissu was a presidential candidate representing Chadema, competing against the late President John Magufuli. In that election, which many described as the most flawed election in Tanzania’s history, Lissu received 1,933,271 votes, while President Magufuli was declared the winner with 12,516,252 votes.

Lissu’s announcement comes after various signs suggest some tension with the party, between him and the party chair, Freeman Mbowe. This rift was reportedly heightened during Chadema’s recent internal party elections, where Lissu said that there was a lot of corruption fuelled by money coming from the ruling party, CCM.

Taxing cryptocurrency
In the 2024/25 budget, Tanzania has announced a 3% tax on digital assets transactions. The new measure defines digital assets as anything of value that is intangible, including cryptocurrencies, token codes, and numbers held in digital form generated through cryptographic or other means.

The Act specifically targets non-resident individuals or entities that own platforms or facilitate the exchange or transfer of digital assets. This means the law will require crypto exchange sites and brokers to register in Tanzania’s tax system and withhold a tax rate of 3% when making payments to a resident as a result of transfer or exchange.

While the global market value of cryptocurrency stands at an estimated USD $2.46 trillion (2.2% of global GDP), Tanzania does not yet have a specific legal framework for digital assets. However, in 2019, the Bank of Tanzania issued a public notice against the use or trading of crypto­currency in the country.

Nevertheless, various reports indicate that a significant number of Tanzanians own cryptocurrencies. One report by a Singaporean cryp­tocurrency research firm, Triple A, estimates that about 2.3 million Tanzanians own cryptocurrency. A separate survey within Tanzania, conducted by Financial Sector Deepening Tanzania (FSDT), found that 1.7% of Tanzanian adults – equivalent to over 580,000 people – have invested in cryptocurrencies.