by Ben Taylor

President Samia officially nominated as CCM candidate for 2025 elections

The ruling CCM party has formally nominated President Samia Suluhu Hassan, the country’s current president, as the party’s presidential candidate in the elections scheduled for October 2025. She is currently serving out the term of President Magufuli, who won re-election in 2020 but died a few months later.

The party’s national congress passed a resolution on January 19th, endorsing President Samia Suluhu Hassan and President Hussein Ali Hassan Mwinyi as its official candidates for the Union and Zanzibar presidential elections, respectively. The resolution was unanimously approved by all delegates and followed pressure from the floor and a recommendation from former President Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete.

“If we want to decide today that Samia is our candidate and Mwinyi is our candidate, we have the authority to do so,” Mr Kikwete told the delegates, to much applause.

Turning to President Samia, who chaired the congress, Mr Kikwete remarked: “Madam Chairperson, I am not sure whether I have clarified matters or made them more confusing. But the people have spoken. If they want you to continue, who else will say no?”

He then proposed that the congress formalise the decision through a written resolution to avoid ambiguity, which was then done. At the same meeting, President Hassan nominated Dr Emmanuel Nchimbi as her running mate for the upcoming elections. His nomination came shortly after Vice President Dr Philip Mpango requested to step down.

“After receiving Vice President Mpango’s letter, I consulted our elders and shared my thoughts,” President Hassan said. “Together, we agreed on one name that embodies experience and capability. That name is Dr Emmanuel Nchimbi.”

Dr Nchimbi, currently CCM’s Secretary-General, is well-versed in navigating high-stakes government and party leadership. He has a long CV both within the party and in government, as a former chair of the party’s youth wing, UVCCM, and former Home Affairs Minister (2012­13) under President Kikwete, among many other positions. He spent much of the last decade outside the country, as Tanzania’s ambassador to Brazil (2016-21) and then Egypt (2022-23).

He was a prominent support of Edward Lowassa in his 2015 bid for the CCM presidential nomination, though he did not follow Mr Lowassa to Chadema when his candidacy was rebuffed by CCM. Indeed, he was later seen as an important figure in efforts to negotiate a rapprochement, and some analysts have suggested that his ability to reach all parts of the party was a key factor in his nomination.

“By choosing someone like Dr Nchimbi, the party is not just prioritising competence but also signalling that it values unity and inclusivity,” said political analyst Faraja Kristomus of the University of Dar es Salaam.

Reading the runes – and the room
This is the earliest that CCM has settled on a presidential candidate. Indeed, it is believed to be the first time that there has been no procedure for collecting and submitting presidential nomination forms. And while the calls for the various nominations were apparently driven by delegates to the meeting, there can be little doubt that this was a pre-planned move. Some analysts suggested the vice-president’s letter announcing his intention to step down was choreographed.

This suggests that President Samia has become more adept in navigating the intricate dynamics and factions within CCM, effectively cutting off any potential obstacles to her candidacy in the 2025 elections before such shoots were able to emerge. It may also indicate that senior figures in the party are keen to project an image of unity as they approach the 2025 elections. The contrast with the current situation at the main opposition party, Chadema, is stark – see article below.

Nevertheless, the manoeuvre is not without risks. It doesn’t exude confidence if you need to launch a surprise raid while your potential opponents are unprepared. More seriously, those with presidential ambitions within the party will have to wait for another five years, and some may decide that their prospects look brighter outside CCM. Or they may feel that their time would be better spent in the background, preparing for 2030 rather than lining up behind President Samia’s 2025 campaign.

“Today we have finished the work. If there is someone who dreams of running for the presidency, forget it. Today is the end of the work. And if there is someone who had those dreams, maybe he should run for his mother’s party, but for the CCM, the work is done and completed,” said one delegate, Mr George Ruhoro, the MP for Ngara.

Those with dreams may also find that Dr Nchimbi now starts the race for the 2030 nomination in pole position. However, they will not give up hope, as the party’s practise on presidential nominations has generally been to recruit from those in mid-level ministerial experience rather than sitting vice-presidents or prime ministers.

Chadema power struggles
While the ruling party’s 2025 nominations process has concluded early, more than nine months ahead of the likely election date, the leading opposition party, Chadema, finds itself focussed on in-fighting. Specifically, the party’s previous presidential candidate, Tundu Lissu, is seeking to take over as party chair from the long-standing incumbent, Freeman Mbowe.

Supporters of Lissu argue that after 21 years under Mbowe’s stewardship without significant electoral success, Chadema needs fresh leadership. Meanwhile, Mbowe’s followers have accused Lissu of being divisive and breaching party confidentiality.

The accusations and counter-accusations from both camps, as well as the strong rhetoric employed by the candidates’ supporters, have only served to raise tensions and concerns. Observers worry that the process could deepen internal fractures, especially given the passionate support both candidates command.

Addressing Chadema’s National Executive Council in Dar es Salaam on January 20th, Mbowe urged members to remain steadfast in their commitment to the party’s mission.

“We have not come to Dar es Salaam to divide ourselves but to build and strengthen this party to fulfil the dreams of Tanzanians,” Mbowe said. He warned against succumbing to external forces seeking to destabilise Chadema and stressed that differences should strengthen rather than weaken the party.

“The whole world is watching. Our opponents are observing us, and our friends are waiting in anticipation. Let us demonstrate that Chadema is united and part of God’s plan,” he added.

Nevertheless, Mr Mbowe’s campaign took a heavy blow the same day when one of the party’s most prominent former MPs, Godbless Lema, previously an Mbowe-loyalist, declared his support for Tundu Lissu.

Lissu is well-known for his strong anti-corruption stance both within and outside the party. This endears him to the public, which is tired of corruption and other forms of malpractice in the running of public institutions. His clear commitment to transparency and accountability further strengthens his appeal as a leader capable of driving meaningful change.

In contrast, Mbowe has often appeared to struggle with the contrast between his demands for transparency and accountability from government on the one hand and his own domineering approach to party leadership on the other, though he has recently taken some steps to address internal governance issues under his leadership. STOP PRESS: After writing the above, on January 22nd, Tundu Lissu was elected as chair of Chadema. Mr Mbowe conceded defeat, writing on X: “I fully accept the decision of the General Assembly election of our party, Chadema. … I congratulate Hon. Tundu Lissu and his team for being entrusted with the party’s leadership. I wish them all the best as they move the party forward.”

Opposition, the media and activists face pressure
In October 2024, three of Tanzania’s leading newspapers – The Citizen, Mwananchi and Mwanaspoti – had their website licenses suspended by the government after publishing an animated video deemed to overstep the line in its criticism of President Samia Suluhu Hassan.

The three papers – all part of the same media house – were banned from publishing anything on their websites, on YouTube or social media for 30 days. The Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA) said the video violated the Electronic and Postal Communications (Online Content) Regulations of 2020. Specifically, the regulator said the content “threatens and is likely to affect and harm national unity and social peace of the United Republic of Tanzania”.
The animated video depicted a female character who resembled the President with her signature hijab. It showed the character switching between different TV stations. On each one there was someone complaining about the killing, abduction or disappearance of a family member. At the end, the character appears upset by all the complaints.
Mpoki Thomson, The Citizen’s managing editor, said the animation depicted “events that raised concerns regarding the safety and security of individuals in Tanzania”.

A (possibly political?) murder, and a presidential response
As reported previously (see TA139), the issue raised in the video – that of disappearances of activists and opposition leaders – is genuine. Indeed, it was particularly pertinent at the time of the video’s publication, coming as it did, shortly after the brutal killing of a senior member of the main opposition party Chadema, Ali Kibao.

Mr Kibao, 69, was a retired military intelligence officer and had joined Chadema in 2008. He was forced off a bus by suspected security agents while travelling from Dar es Salaam to his hometown Tanga in early September, 2024. The post-mortem found that Mr Kibao had been “severely beaten and had acid poured on his face”, party chairman Freeman Mbowe told the AFP news agency.

Hundreds turned out for Mr Kibao’s funeral in Tanga, where people interrupted Home Affairs Minister Hamad Masauni as he tried to address the mourners. “Where is the government? People are being abducted and there’s no action,” they said. “Resign, resign, resign,” they shouted at the minister.

Mr Mbowe, who was also at the funeral, intervened, urging the crowd to allow the minister to complete his speech.

The US Embassy in Tanzania voiced their support for an “independent, transparent, and prompt investigation” into the killing of Mr Kibao. “Murder and disappearances, as well as last month’s detentions, beatings, efforts to disenfranchise citizens ahead of elections, should have no place in a democracy”.

The President herself addressed such criticism angrily in a speech in mid-September, at which she took several swipes at foreign government interference in internal matters, and contrasted the reaction to this particular murder with the lack of media and diplomatic attention for other recent acts of violence. Her speech is worth quoting at length:

“It is surprising that the death of our brother Kibao has stirred up such a huge outcry of condemnation, grief, and accusations of calling the government murderers. This is not right. Any death is just death. What we Tanzanians must do is stand together and condemn these acts, to stand firm against such behaviour. The blood of a Tanzanian should weigh on us; we should not shed blood without cause.”

“When others wish to show their compassion, we urge them to do so by adhering to the agreements of international diplomatic relations as outlined in the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of 1961. … I believe that the statement made is not the directive of the heads of state from where they came.”

“The government has worked very hard to restore the freedom of political parties, the freedom of the media, and the freedom of citizens in general. Those who were in exile returned to the country; … those who had criminal cases we turned a blind eye to; those who were in prison, we released them. Now they are free and are continuing with their activities, including political activities. Our goal was to bring people together to build our country.” “Now, when those same people forget all this and engage in actions or statements that harm or set us back, we will not be willing to allow it, we will not allow it. We will protect the peace and stability of our country at any cost. Just as other countries protect theirs, we Tanzanians will protect our country at any cost.”

“I will show no leniency toward anyone who seeks to disrupt the peace of our nation,” she concluded. “We have been tolerant on many issues, but when it comes to protecting this nation’s peace, I will show no leniency to anyone involved in such matters, whether they are coordinating, participating in, or executing these evil plans.”

And another abduction

Maria Sarungi speaks at a press conference in Nairobi on 13th January, the day after the abduction.

More recently, in early January, prominent freedom of speech advocate and government critic, Maria Sarungi, was abducted in Nairobi. She later told a press briefing that she had been manhandled, choked and shouted at by four unknown assailants who forced her into a vehicle in Kenya’s capital. The activist said she was freed several hours later and left on a “rough road, in a dark place”.

“I am sure that the reason for abduction was to get access to my social media and [because of] the whistleblowing job that I do,” she said, as her abductors kept asking how to unlock her phone.

Ms Sarungi is a staunch critic of Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan, and has accused her government of “bringing tyranny back”. She fled to Kenya in 2020, seeking asylum after facing increasing threats, she, says, from the government of late President John Magufuli.

She blamed the Tanzanian government for what happened but said she thought the abductors were both Kenyan and Tanzanian. Officials from neither government have commented on the incident.

Change Tanzania, a movement founded by Ms Sarungi, said in a statement on X it believed she had been taken by Tanzanian security agents “operating beyond Tanzania borders to silence government legitimate criticism”. It added that her “courage in standing up for justice has made her a target”.

There is some history of abductions of foreign activists in Kenya. In 2024, Ugandan opposition leader, Kizza Besigye, was kidnapped in Nairobi, allegedly by Ugandan security officials, and taken across the border for trial by a court martial. The Ugandan government said Kenya helped them in the operation, but the Kenyan government denied this.

by Ben Taylor

What a second Trump presidency means for Tanzania
Much of the whole world waits in trepidation (as well as excitement for some) for the implications of Donald Trump’s second presidential term, and Tanzania is no exception. After all, during his first stint in the White House, he reportedly referred to some African nations as “shithole countries”.

In November, President Samia Suluhu Hassan was quick to congratulate President Trump on his election victory. She posted on Twitter: “On behalf of the Government and the people of the United Republic of Tanzania, I extend my heartfelt congratulations to His Excellency Donald Trump, President-elect of the United States of America on your election victory. Mr. President-elect, you have my best wishes.”

There are many possible global implications of a Trump presidency – not least for global security, the climate crisis and international trade and economics. However, here we will focus on the more direct implications for Tanzania.

First, among the many actions taken by the new president in his first days in office was one that will be felt almost immediately in Tanzania: the suspension of foreign development aid. This executive order was signed by Mr Trump on his first day in office, suspending aid for 90 days to allow for an evaluation of its effectiveness and alignment with his foreign policy. “All department and agency heads responsible for U.S. foreign development aid programmes are to immediately halt new activities and expenditures for development aid,” the order stated.

This includes assistance from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which has been instrumental in supporting various projects, including the provision of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs to combat HIV/AIDS.

During his first term from 2017 to 2021, President Trump proposed slashing nearly a third of the U.S. diplomacy and aid budgets, including significantly reducing funding for United Nations peacekeeping operations and international agencies. However, Congress at the time resisted Trump’s proposals.

Second, strict immigration rules may limit opportunities for skilled Tanzanians to visit, work, or study in the US, as well as the potential deportation of Tanzanians who are currently living there. Precise numbers of Tanzanians who might be affected are hard to come by. However, in 2023, the number of African migrants recorded at the US-Mexico border was 58,000, and according to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) there are thought to be over 70,000 Tanzanians currently residing in the US, with a wide variety of immigration statuses.

It remains unclear how concertedly the new president will carry out his pledges to deport migrants. Nevertheless, given that Tanzanians living in the US already play an outsized role in Tanzanian domestic politics – largely through their vocal social media output mainly in support of opposition parties – the prospect of many of this group returning to Tanzania could have an outsized impact on political discourse within Tanzania.

Third, President Trump’s policies when it comes to trade are likely to have some – though limited – impacts directly on Tanzania. In particular, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has enabled eligible African countries to export some of their produce to the US without paying taxes since 2000, is a source of concern for many countries. It is due to expire in 2025, and Mr Trump has previously stated that he will not renew. Further, he has announced his intention to introduce a universal 10% income tariff on all foreign-made goods.

However, Tanzanian producers have never taken much advantage of AGOA and exports from Tanzania to the US are low compared to many other countries in Africa.