by Ben Taylor

President Samia at the rain affected Union Day celebrations in Dar-es-Salaam. Photo State House

A season of heavy rain has caused havoc – and over 150 deaths – across Tanzania. Speaking in late April, the Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa said around 200,000 people and 50,000 households had been badly affected by the heavy rainfall. He warned that the rain could continue well into May.

“The heavy El Niño rains, accompanied by strong winds, floods, and landslides in various parts of the country, have caused significant damage,” he told parliament. “These include loss of life, destruction of crops, homes, citizens’ property, and infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and railways,” he added.

Similar devastation has been caused in Kenya as well, with 188 deaths reported.

To make matters worse, at the time of writing, a rare East African cyclone is anticipated for early May. “Hidaya Cyclone … is expected to dominate and affect the weather patterns in the country including heavy rain and strong winds in some regions near the Indian Ocean,” said the Tanzania Red Cross Society on X, formerly Twitter.

Hidaya, the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane, is the first of its kind to develop in eastern Africa, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Wind speeds of up to 100mph are expected, as well as coastal storm surges and heavy rain. Kenyan authorities have issued mandatory evacuation orders for residents near 178 dams and water reservoirs.

Chris Fawkes of BBC weather explained that one of the biggest drivers of the rains is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD – sometimes called the “Indian Niño” because of its similarity to its Pacific equivalent – refers to the difference in sea-surface temperatures in opposite parts of the Indian Ocean. When waters in the western Indian Ocean are much warmer than normal, this can bring heavier rain regardless of El Niño. However, this happens at the same time as an El Niño event, as was the case last year, the rains in East Africa can become extreme.