by Ben Taylor

Growing concern over President Samia’s respect for democratic norms
After President Samia Suluhu Hassan took office in March 2021, there were signs that she intended to “re-open” the country, both politically and economically. Her predecessor, President John Magufuli, had restricted the activities of opposition parties, and anyone critical of his government, as well as applying a firmly nationalist approach to economics that discouraged investment.

“Tanzania is less sinister and less mad since she took over,” wrote The Economist earlier this year. Right from the start, however, questions were being asked as to how concerted President Samia’s new direction would be, particularly on politics. In part, this was because President Magufuli remained popular both with the public and with some powerful figures within the ruling party, CCM, and it was clear that any pro-democracy moves the new President introduced would meet with resistance – resistance that would also carry the temptation and/or promise of a relatively easy ride in forthcoming elections. Would the demands of holding the party together trump her supposed democratic instincts? And in part, it was because President Samia’s own position was not well known. She had spent over five years as a loyal Vice President to her predecessor, without ever marking out her own position on key questions. How committed was she, truly, to moving the country in a more democratic direction?

A number of recent events and trends have led to rising concern that her commitment is lukewarm at best. One pan-African publication described this as Tanzania’s moment of truth, where “the red flags are getting redder.” Another went with “Back to bulldozer politics”.

A planned celebration in Mbeya in August of International Youth Day by the opposition party, Chadema, was blocked by the police. More than 500 young Chadema supporters were arrested as they attempted to gather in defiance of the ban. Several senior Chadema leaders – including secretary general John Mnyika, national vice chair, Tundu Lissu and central committee member Joseph Mbilinyi – were detained for 48 hours and allegedly roughed up by the police, and party leader Freeman Mbowe was also arrested. Police Commissioner, Awadh Juma Haji justified their actions by saying the police would do everything in their power “to resist such glaring threats to public order”.

Further, in recent months, numerous opposition figures have reportedly disappeared. In July, regional police in Tanga confirmed that they were holding Kombo Mbwana, a Chadema district leader – some 30 days after he went missing. He had not been presented before court, despite appeals by his lawyers. Two other party leaders – Dioniz Kipanya from Rukwa and Deusdedith Soka from Dar es Salaam – have gone missing in the past few weeks, with no word from authorities. In August, the Tanganyika Law Society (TLS) released a list of 83 people who had recently disappeared recently under mysterious circumstances.

There have also been other grounds for concern, too. There was the heavy-handed response to criticism of the controversial DP World contract to manage the port of Dar es Salaam (see TA136 and 137).

There was a recent announcement by Zanzibar’s police commissioner Hamad Khamis Hamad that they would review political speeches with the aim of identifying utterances made against the state or aiming to incite hatred. And there has been the reappointment of former close allies of President Magufuli to influential positions – most obviously the controversial Paul Makonda who was recently made regional commissioner for Arusha, after three years in the wilderness. He recently called himself the “favourite son of President Samia,” surely a knowing reference to the persistent rumours that he could be the illegitimate son of President Magufuli.

Even the reforms that the President herself had been strongly associated – such as establishing dialogue with opposition parties and forming commissions for criminal justice reform, constitutional reform and the running of elections – have slowed or stalled, showing little sign of progress in the past year. Recommendations are gathering dust on shelves, while local elections are due before the end of this year, and presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in October 2025.

Those elections are, of course, a major part of the context in which all of this is taking place. There is still an outside chance that President Samia may face a challenger in becoming the CCM presidential candidate. Having risen to the presidency through the untimely death of the previous incumbent, rather than through an election, as well as being the country’s first female president, President Samia could be forgiven for feeling nervous at the prospect of not delivering a victory as clear as that of President Magufuli. Indeed, such was the extent of his win in the 2020 official election results, she cannot hope to match that outcome, whether or not the country returns to a more credible democratic electoral process.

A second factor, particularly in the most recent developments, is the recent “Gen Z” protests in Kenya. Across several weeks, widespread protests by young Kenyans, organised on social media, piled pressure on President William Ruto to reverse tax changes. A heavy response by state security forces, which killed dozens, failed to quell the unrest, and eventually, President Ruto fired his entire cabinet and was forced to halt planned tax hikes.

When announcing the ban on Chadema’s youth day rally in Mbeya, Commissioner Haji specifically cited a statement by one Chadema youth leader that called upon opposition supporters to be “inspired by
our colleagues in Kenya”.

At the time of writing, the jury is still out on whether President Samia is genuinely committed to democratic reforms but having to proceed slowly in order to bring her party with her, or her stated commitment was only ever a strategy to buy herself time as the country’s new leader. What is clear, however, is that observers both within and outside the
country are becoming less willing to give her the benefit of the doubt, and that their doubts are growing.