by Dr Hildebrand Shayo

Tanzania’s National Vision 2050: lessons to learn from China?
Dr Samia Suluhu Hassan, the president of the United Republic of Tanzania recently endorsed the process of soliciting public input for the National Development Vision 2050 (NDV). Among the eight directives she issued was a need to adhere to a strong emphasis on national integrity.

To create prosperity for all, the NDV 2050 places a strong emphasis on an inclusive economy that aims to reduce poverty, create jobs, and increase exports outside the nation to earn foreign currency. The endorsement took place in the nation’s capital, Dodoma, in front of international partners and development agencies who attended the launching of the process of preparing the new vision, showcasing their commitment to supporting Tanzania’s development journey.

For a trip like this to bear fruit, we must learn from our peers. There are lessons to be learned from China, for example, which has a remarkable record at eradicating poverty with a well-coordinated and capable, focused government. These factors made the country’s strategy for economic growth possible, as well as the carefully calibrated policies and programmes that produce the long-term gains that the rest of the world is currently experiencing.

Published Chinese data shows that from 1970 to 2017, the percentage of Chinese citizens living in extreme poverty fell from approximately 90% to 88% in 1981, 10.2% by 2012, 3.1% by 2017, and approximately 30.46 million at that time. It was stated in 2022 that only 0.7% of people were considered to be living below the poverty line. How China did this is a potentially useful lesson for Tanzania in its planning for NDV 2050.

Undeniably, China’s efforts to reduce poverty have depended on a series of dedicated and determined leaders, starting with Chairman Mao, followed by Deng Xiaoping (who implemented the National Economic Development Programme), and, more recently, President Xi Jinping, who has made the fight against poverty the centrepiece of his administration.

A large portion of the imperial economy was based on agriculture and agrarianism, which meant that generations of Chinese people had historically lived in poverty for tens of decades under the various Dynasties. But starting in 1949, the Chinese Communist Party made a significant effort to lessen extreme poverty and inequality, which resulted in land and economic reforms.

This measure was followed by investment in rural healthcare and education facilities, as well as farm irrigation systems. Throughout, the CCP was the catalyst for the nation’s efforts to reduce poverty.

The Chinese government’s subsequent initiatives to reduce poverty, a good lesson to Tanzania were based on two main factors. One, the economy must be transformed to create new opportunities and raise income levels; Two, policies and programmes to reduce poverty must target demographics that lack access to opportunities due to their geographic location.

Based on this, Tanzania could in its NDV 2050 adopt the four main strategies that China used to reduce poverty: improving urbanisation, which will encourage the development of industries and income potential; increasing agricultural productivity, which will help raise household and farmer incomes; continuing industrialization, which will result in a record number of well-paying jobs and an increase in foreign investment; and significant investments in infrastructure, particularly roads, which will help to improved access to markets and distribution networks.

Currently, one of the main tenets of President Xi Jinping’s governance policies is poverty reduction and this new phase of poverty alleviation in 2012 began when the sitting president took office, solidifying the record of at least seven hundred million people who had been helped by the CCP to escape poverty.

The government needed to identify the impoverished groups and determine the underlying causes of their poverty to implement relief policies and decide who could carry out the programmes at the central, municipal, prefectural, and county levels. This approach could give Tanzania a good start as it establishes the foundation for NDV 2050.

The Xi Jinping administration outlined 5 courses to alleviate poverty. These included: the economy’s continued growth to keep growth job availability or the developmental approach; the relocation of people from extremely impoverished areas to areas where they can find better livelihoods; the creation of environmentally friendly employment opportunities; the provision of quality education as a means of bridging intergenerational poverty; and the provision of social security for those unable to work, including insurance and medical care. All these offer potential as ingredients for Tanzania’s NDV 2050.

A good lesson for Tanzania, as it starts working on NDV 2050, is to know that a fundamental element in the accomplishment of China’s unparalleled efforts to reduce poverty was the presence of sound governance, resulting from devoted leadership, which made it possible for the economic growth plan and the well-targeted policies and initiatives to produce long-term benefits.

China’s success in reducing poverty can be rationalised as a growth story, illustrating how steady and quick economic expansion resulted in changes to the productive base of society, which were then linked to the strengthening of market incentives.

China’s rapid economic and social growth was facilitated by its long-term development plan, strength, and ruthless prioritisation of government goals. These factors attracted investment and provided incentives for growth in important sectors like infrastructure, agriculture, health, education, and technology, among others. The Development Vision 2025–2050 will promote stability, draw investment, and guarantee equitable growth, benefiting all Tanzanians. It will do this by acquiring from peers, especially from China and the United Kingdom.

by Ben Taylor
Rising growth, no fall in poverty

In its recent Country Economic Memorandum for Tanzania, the World Bank concluded that Tanzania’s economic growth model is not sufficiently inclusive and as a result is continuing to trap many in poverty. The report, entitled Privatizing Growth, stated that while many Tanzanians have come out of poverty in recent years, many others have fallen into it as well: “more than half of those in the lowest quintile of the wealth distribution in 2021 had fallen back from a higher quintile.”

The Bank said many Tanzanians are “exposed to frequent income shocks” and that they are “highly sensitive to such shocks as they tend to own few assets and have limited access to social protection”. Median consumption per adult in 2021 was more than 10% lower than in 2014 due to overlapping shocks that occurred after 2019, according to the report.

The report found that between 2012 and 2018, poverty in Tanzania – measured against the national basic-needs poverty line – only decreased by 1.8 percentage points. Alongside relatively high GDP growth rates in this period, “the near-zero growth elasticity of poverty in Tanzania was one of the lowest in the world,” and “the number of poor Tanzanians rose by 1.3 million over the same period”.

Nevertheless, the report also pointed to Tanzania’s impressive rate of GDP growth in recent years, which has averaged 6.1% per year since 2000, raising Tanzania to Lower Middle-Income Country (LMIC) status in 2020. And this was accompanied by a lot of progress on broader human development: between 2000 and 2020, life expectancy rose from 52 years to 67 years and the average duration of school attendance from 3.8 years to 6.4 years, while in just the last decade the share of Tanzanians with access to electricity has increased from 5.6% to 39.9%.

This contrast – rapid growth without similar rates of poverty reduction – was the focus of much of the report. In particular, the report unpacked different elements that had contributed to the growth, most notably the changing role of exports. Between 2000 and 2012, Tanzanian exports grew by a massive 6.5 times, but more recently were stagnant afterwards, such that the exports-to-GDP ratio increased from 9.6% in 2000 to 20.9% in 2012, but fell back to 14.3% by 2021. The composition of exports changed too, from over 50% agricultural produce in the 2000s, to a very different situation in 2021, where extractives (mostly gold) made up more than half of all merchandise exports.

The report also found that the agriculture sector’s role in the economy had shifted in recent years. Between 2000 and 2014, the percentage of the labour force employed in agriculture fell from 76% to 67%, but more recently the figure has been rising again. The report points to economic shocks and policy factors forcing many who had previously earned a living in other ways to return to agriculture as a backup livelihood mechanism.

Earlier, speaking at the 27th Annual Research Workshop held in Dar es Salaam, the World Bank Africa Region Chief Economist, Andrew Debalen, emphasised that African countries should invest more in human capital. “To attain real transformation in Africa, the organisation of production has to change. Economies of skills are lacking. Large firms have to augment labour with innovation and technology to reach larger markets,” he says.

Speaking at the same event, the Minister for State in the Prime Minister Office, Professor Joyce Ndalichako said that the government has taken bold steps to strengthen the workforce by investing in education from early ages. “The government has increased the education budget and stepped-up enrolment to ensure that all children have access to education. We have built more classrooms, hired more teachers, and allocated more funds to the Higher Education Student Loans Board to enable more students to pursue higher education,” she said.
The former Chief Secretary, Ambassador Ombeni Sefue argued that despite Tanzania’s move towards the market economy, some Tanzanians still hanker for an outdated model that should be consigned to the past.

“Our entering into the market economy notwithstanding, we are still embracing the past economic model. We forget that our economy can grow through cooperation between the private and public sectors. This is where we should be heading,” he said.

“If the government doesn’t trust the private sector and vice versa, there can never be a conducive environment to build collaborations. We’ve always said that there ought to be channels for each party to listen to the other,” Ambassador Sefue emphasised.

by Dr Hildebrand Shayo

Should Tanzania be concerned about the UK and USA’s banks’ hike in interest rates?
When the Fed in the US or the Bank of England raises interest rates, what happens To Tanzania? Is Tanzania secure, bearing in mind the government’s commitments and government repayment to loans on the table, given like any other nation has borrowed from international financial institutions that use hard currency? If any further financial commitments and repayment are necessary, were these interest hikes anticipated in the nationally approved 2023/24 national budget? If not, how will this increase in interest rates affect Tanzania’s economy, which is already struggling to find enough dollars for imports of essential items like oil and other goods and services?

When the Fed or Bank of England raises interest rates, it is obvious that they intend to boost borrowing costs generally. The choice results in higher interest rates for everyone, raising the cost of loans for both businesses and consumers. Furthermore, this will result in a significant shortage of greenbacks, which will have an impact on many economies, including Tanzania, which depends on foreign exchange to facilitate trade.

Tanzania should be prepared to soon face the effects of US monetary policy, which will generally raise the cost of lending across the economy. Everyone ends up paying more in interest since higher interest rates make loans more expensive for both firms and consumers. Therefore, the crucial question is: Are we ready to withstand the sting of rising interest rates?

To ensure that everyone is on the same page, it is crucial to know for example that the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday 26th July 2023 increased its benchmark lending rate by 0.25% points to combat the US market’s prevalent above-target inflation. For the UK, the Bank of England envisaged hikes exceeding 200bps by year-end and a peak policy rate above 5% by early next year is something that cannot be overlooked in Tanzania. There are indications that the rate may be hiked higher to boost their economic prospects, according to the discussion that followed this US federal decision and the expected Bank of England decision rates scope.

Will this decision spare Tanzania, which like many other countries in the region is suffering from a shortage of the widely used trade currency, as evidenced by the recent shortage of the US dollar supply that prompted oil importers to voice their concerns to the government, even though this is likely to attract more investment into the US market?

Tanzania will have a difficult mountain to climb to manage the consequences of this rate increase. While it may seem like Tanzania should seriously consider increasing its domestic production by reviving its domestic industries that use local raw materials, or seriously consider switching over machines and engines that used imported oil to gas, or generally seriously consider achieving output that will mitigate this impact, this isn’t a one-day action.

As a nation, in my opinion, it is high time to face reality and accept that this shift would only strengthen the US dollar and damage other currencies, including the Tanzanian shilling. Changes in interest rates have an impact on how consumers and businesses access credit to make critical purchases and make financial plans. Even some life insurance policies are affected by it.

I do recognise that as a country we might be tempted to look to raise money through Euro bonds on the global market, but if this is going to be the only solution, we need to be ready because there will be significant charges with higher interest rates as the markets all over will react to the Federal Reserve decision.

In a way, our desire to create more jobs for young Tanzanians graduating from colleges and universities as well as those who want to start their businesses will be unable to obtain bank credit and likely be severely hampered by the gradual reduction in borrowing by businesses or the failure of new businesses to access credits at reasonable affordable rates.

When the Fed or Bank of England adjusts interest rates, it’s crucial to consider the effects on the economy, including lending and borrowing, consumer spending, and the stock market. My reflection aims to spark conversation about how we can assist the government in working with the central bank to find workable solutions because these changes will soon have an impact on how Tanzanian consumers will pay more for the capital needed to make purchases and when businesses will face higher costs associated with expanding their operations and funding payrolls.

The use of many strategies, in my opinion, including loans, swaps, exports of products and services, promotion of tourism, closer coordination of remittances, or attracting more FDIs, can help Tanzania overcome this difficult and challenging time in our development history.
While these actions may seem great, I believe there is one area that needs extra attention – specifically purchasing gold, that can be utilised as a hedge in this situation – but mistakes and lessons of the past when the government through the central bank was involved in purchasing gold must be considered.

It is more crucial for the government to set aside money to assist projects that promote exports and import alternatives. In this regard, policy banks like the TIB Development Bank or commercial banks can carry out the export guarantee plan, but caution must be exercised to prevent misuse by learning from lessons from the past where such government support was seriously mismanaged at the expense of Tanzanians.

Unquestionably, an increase in interest rates in the US or in the UK will induce or persuade investors to place their capital in equities and bonds and assets on the US market in search of big returns.

Changes in interest rates have a ripple effect on many aspects of the economy, comprising mortgage rates and consumer credit and consumption, and stock market movements. Nonetheless, due to the impact of interest rate changes on the global economy, most commodities traded on the international market, such as oil, will cause Tanzania to experience greater economic hardship if the proper strategies and actions are not taken on a timely and strategic basis.

My main concern is how interest rate instruments are being utilised while also thinking about what needs to be done to calm markets and prevent potential bank runs. I will go into more detail about this in the next issue and how strategically Tanzania can overcome this global challenge. But first and foremost, I worry that higher interest rates will increase pressure on Tanzanian banks, which will restrict lending. This will in turn undoubtedly damage small companies and businesses and other borrowers that seek sanctuary in this sector of the economy that is considered a major source of tax revenue for the government and importantly job creation for the army of young graduates from colleges and universities.

by Ben Taylor
February saw the maiden Tanzania-EU Business Forum in Dar es Salaam, bringing together over 600 business leaders from the EU and representatives of the Tanzanian government and business community.

Speaking at the event, Tanzania’s Vice-President, Dr Philip Mpango, invited investors from the 27 EU member states to explore untapped investment and business opportunities in Tanzania. He cited potential areas for investment as agriculture and agro-processing for value addition of local farm produce, as well as tourism, energy, mining, real estate, transport and logistics.

Dr Mpango, also a former Finance Minister, assured delegates of a conducive environment for trade and investment. “Just last year, the government repealed the Investment Act of 1997 and enacted new legislation that offers more incentives to strategic investors,” he said, adding that Tanzania is among the fastest growing economies in the sub-Saharan Africa at present.

At the same event, Dr Mpango urged Tanzanian businesspersons to also explore and take advantage of investment and trade opportunities in the EU.

Tanzania and the EU have been enjoying more cordial relations since President Samia Suluhu Hassan came to power in March 2021. In February 2022, the President visited the European Commission (EC) headquarters in Brussels and met with Commission President, Ursula Von der Leyen. Shortly after this meeting, the EU head of delegation to Tanzania, Mr Manfredo Fanti, stated that investors in the 27-member European bloc were happy with initiatives that the East African nation was taking to improve its business climate, saying this would foster increased Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows.

According to the 2022 EU Investment in Tanzania Report 2022, imports to Tanzania from the EU were valued at €856 million in 2021, representing 12% of Tanzania’s imports, while exports stood at €456 million (10%). The report, which was jointly prepared by the EU Delegation and the European Business Group (EUBG), also found that over 100 companies from the EU have invested in the country, creating an estimated 151,000 jobs.

by Dr Hildebrand Shayo

2023/2024 budget amid thorny audit report
Tanzania’s national 2023/2024 budget debate is gaining thrust at a time when numerous flaws have been exposed by the 2021/22 report of the Controller and Auditors General (CAG), in addition to the global economic outlook that remains thought-provoking, flimsy, and unclear. The Russian vs Ukraine situation that is impacting other major economies might make this year’s 2023/2024 budget tricky.

The 2023/2024 national budget debate likewise is taking place at a time when capital markets are not functioning efficiently, and unemployment continues to persist as a major concern both at the national and global levels, but nationally at the time when the sixth phase government has been more transparent and embarrassing openness something which led to exposing the number of losses in government expenditure and revenue collection.

In these circumstances, advanced economies and important emerging nations such as Tanzania will be facing difficult policy choices, to strike a balance between the imperative of fiscal consolidation and the need for sustainable economic recovery and growth.

For emerging and rising economies, the road to a sustained recovery will continue to be challenged by several key concerns comprising capital inflows volatility, risks of domestic credit and asset price bubbles, commodity price instability, especially fuel and food prices, and inadequate resources. This will be coupled with limited fiscal space and large development needs, containing the need to achieve the MDGs.

Evaluation of economic trends and performance signals that the global economy will continue to struggle financially. Despite the realisation of unprecedented macroeconomic policy responses, including monetary and fiscal measures undertaken, uncertainties will continue regarding the path to economic recovery partly coping with the effects of Covid and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.

Global headwinds
All is happening when the global economy continues to grapple with financial market fluctuations and macroeconomic imbalances, that is leading to increasing vulnerabilities in global economic recovery and weakening employment prospects across many economic sectors.

Against this setting, world output growth is projected to decelerate from an estimated 3.0% recorded in 2022 to 1.9% in 2023, indicating the world will have one of the lowest growth rates in recent decades. This makes the world economic situation and projection for the remaining 2023 present a gloomy and uncertain economic outlook.

Similarly, growth in cutting-edge economies has already declined from 5% recorded in 2021 to 3.8% in 2022 and 2.3% projected in 2023 a pace that, while moderating, will be satisfactory to restore output and investment to cope with the post-pandemic trend and impact of the on-going war in Russia and Ukraine.

Economic output in the US is expected to slow early this year in response to last year’s sharp rise in interest rates. Nonetheless, the output is expected to start growing again during the second half of 2023 as falling inflation might permit the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which would likely cause a rebound in sectors of the economy that are sensitive to interest rates. Further, US domestic consumption, the major driver of economic growth, is still sluggish as the foreign inflow starts to decline wary of emerging market uncertainty after the failure of three banks in the US during the last month of March 2023.

In Europe, the weak banking sector limits credit supply and hampers the pace of economic recovery. Households and firms across the euro area are currently feeling the effects of higher inflation and weaker economic activity, amid the ongoing energy crisis prompted by the war in Ukraine.

According to the European Central Bank’s November 2022 financial stability review, the deterioration in economic and financial conditions has increased the risks to euro area financial stability and how this might negatively affect emerging markets and developing countries through trade and financial channels thus adding to domestic weaknesses.

GDP growth in Germany, the largest economy in Europe, has increased by 1.8% in 2022. Notwithstanding high inflation, growth has been supported by the boost in demand that followed the post-pandemic reopening of the economy, and in particular, services although by the third quarter of 2022, investment and private consumption had not yet reached their pre-pandemic levels that led to a decreased in the fourth quarter with real GDP contracting by 0.2%. The weak private demand is the main factor behind this weak performance and the prolonged output gap.

On average, the BRICS group of five major emerging economies-Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa has grown strongly since its inception in 2006. Accounting for 23% of the global economy, 18% of trade in goods and 25% of foreign investment, BRICS nations have formed an important force that cannot be ignored in the world economy. BRICS economies imply that the irresistible rise of emerging markets and developing countries has injected strong impetus to the reform of the global economic governance system that will have a considerable impact on other nations’ planning.

National challenges
Tanzania’s 2023/2024 national budget partly relies on development partners’ support, which is of course affected by global dynamics. And in addition, the recent CAG’s report has recommended serious action to be taken since currently, global economic growth is slowing amid a gloomy and more uncertain outlook.

Tanzania’s parliament will debate budgeting issues of respective sectors for a few months when the world’s three largest economies are stalling, with important consequences for the global outlook with inflation remaining a major concern.

Inflationary risks will remain high due to both external and domestic influences. The external risks will be associated with the possibility that the international financial crisis may persist, while the domestic risks will be associated with a context of slower demand due to the slow growth in private sector activities and low-capacity utilisation in many sectors.

All in all, higher-than-expected, although global inflation has been revised in part due to rising food and energy prices, especially in the United States and major European economies, will continue to trigger a tightening of global financial conditions and this will have further negative spill-overs from the war in Ukraine and as a result, global output will be affected enormously.

This year, inflation is anticipated to reach 6.6% in advanced economies and 9.5% in emerging and developing economies. Inflation has also broadened in many economies, reflecting the impact of cost pressures from disrupted supply chains and historically tight labour markets. These issues are critical to Tanzania as honourable MPs debate national budget for 2023/2024.

by Ben Taylor
Pro-business moves by President Hassan
President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s business-friendly outlook is sending positive signals across the globe, with Moody’s Investors Service chang­ing Tanzania’s outlook from stable to positive.

“The outlook change to positive reflects Moody’s view that political risks have lessened under the government’s new approach to promot­ing economic development and engagement with the international community,” Moody’s says in its latest change on Tanzania’s rating which was published in October.

Ratings such as those for Moody’s are used by investors globally in deciding on where and why they should invest their money in any particular economy.

President Hassan took over at a time when relations between the gov­ernment and some investors were somewhat uneasy. The sentiment then was that the country was excessively regulating foreign investors, and that Tanzania’s business climate had abruptly become unpredict­able.

As a result, despite promoting industrialisation, a report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) found that inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) decreased by 24% between 2015 and 2017.

Later, relations between the government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) soured when the latter criticised the former for its unpre­dictable economic policies and unreliable statistics. An IMF report in 2019 warned Tanzania of unpredictable and interventionist policies that worsen the investment climate and could lead to meagre [or even nega­tive] growth, was blocked from being published in the country.

But almost 18 months since the change of guard at State House, Moody’s said the government’s efforts to improve the business and investment climate and attract FDI, most notably in the mining and hydrocarbon industries, offers the prospect for higher potential growth and improv­ing international competitiveness. “Tanzania’s re-engagement with the IMF also has the potential to support higher government revenue generation capacity and unlock greater concessional financing from development partners, supporting debt affordability and increased social spending,” Moody’s said. “Initial steps to improve the business and investment climate include relaxing regulations for foreign work permits, streamlining VAT refunds, and tabling legislation that supports local businesses,” Moody’s noted.

Government officials and some analysts say the government has indeed managed to effectively tell the world that Tanzania was open for invest­ments and that its policies were predictable. “This change is a clear indication that the government’s efforts to create an enabling business environment were being noticed….This will instil confidence to investors that their money will be safe when they invest in Tanzania,” said the Deputy Minister for Investment, Industry and Trade, Mr Exaud Kigahe.

He said the government will keep on creating a friendly-business and investment climate to convince investors that investing in Tanzania could make them be sure of their tomorrow.

Dr Daud Ndaki, an economist from Mzumbe University, echoed this view, noting that the sixth phase government has achieved a remark­able milestone in building investors’ confidence. “This is a positive development. With this positive outlook, we are likely to attract more investors,” he said.

Separately, World Bank Vice-President Victoria Kwakwa praised President Hassan’s “economic miracle,” where key macro indicators showed a strong post Covid-19 position compared to many countries.

Indeed, growth data showed a healthy 5.4% annualised growth rate early in 2022, ahead of earlier projections. The Bank of Tanzania said money supply and private sector credit growth continued to rise swiftly, with the trend being attributed to monetary and fiscal policy accommodation, an improved business environment and recovery of private sector activities from the effects of Covid-19.

Private sector credit growth improved significantly in July and August, reaching around 20%, compared with the projection of 10.7% for 2022/23.
Further, Tanzania appears to have dodged the worst inflationary impacts of the war in Ukraine. Official estimates saw inflation reach 4.6% in August 2022, well below the double-digit figures seen in many countries, and below Tanzania’s own upper-range ceiling of 5%.

Economist and business analyst, Dr Donath Olomi, said there is positive change in perception towards investment and the business environment in Tanzania, which has been influenced by President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s government. “The economic potential has yet to be fulfilled, but we have come far, and there is this confidence as far as doing business in Tanzania is con­cerned. Trust has recovered, and the trajectory is good,” he said.

Census data published

November 2022 saw the publication of the first findings from the 2022 national Population and Housing Census. The main headlines were drawn by the overall total population figure of 61.7 million, up by more than a third from 44.9 million in 2012, representing an annual growth rate of 3.2% since the previous census.

The population of Dar es Salaam has risen a little more slowly over the same period, from 4.4 million in 2012 to 5.4 million in 2022, an annual growth rate of 2.1%. Mwanza meanwhile has grown from 2.8 million to 3.7 million, an annual growth rate of 2.9%.

The overall population figure for 2022 is a little lower than the United Nations Population Division had projected (63.6 million at the end of 2021). Nevertheless, the annual growth rate over the past ten years is considerably higher than had been the case in the previous decade (3.2%, up from 2.7%).

In launching the initial report, President Samia Suluhu Hassan said it was estimated that by 2025 Tanzania will be home to 68 million people and that by 2050 there will be 151 million in the country.

Commenting on the figures, some economists said that rapid popula­tion growth makes it more difficult for low-income and lower-middle­income countries like Tanzania to afford the increase in public expendi­tures on a per capita basis. This, they say, makes it increasingly difficult to eradicate poverty, end hunger and malnutrition, and ensure univer­sal access to health care, education, water and other essential services.

Dr Wilhelm Ngasamiaku, an economist from the University of Dar es Salaam, said it will be important for the economic strategies of the coun­try to take into account the age structure of the population. “In previous census for example, we have seen that people below 18 years account for the majority of the population. This means as a coun­try, you must invest more on social services as demand for health and education will increase,” he said. “But if the majority is in the working age group, 15-59 years, it means we are going to need to re-strategise economically to make sure we create more decent job opportunities,” added Dr Ngasamiaku.

Others say a large population translates into more workers and more consumers who make a good market for locally-produced products for the general good of the economy.

Dr Lutengano Mwinuka, an agricultural trade economist from the University of Dodoma (UDOM), said the population growth provides an opportunity by providing a bigger pool of human capital. “For instance, in agriculture we have a lot of unutilised land across the coun­try. From the census data we can identify the size of the working age group and skills composition and thus we can appropriately develop economic development strategies,” he said.

The initial census data released in November does not include the age profile of the population. This data is expected to be released in 2023.

by Dr Hildebrand Shayo

Highlights on President Samia’s FY 2022/23 and what could be budget’s effect on business and investment
The total budgeted expenditure in the 2022/23 budget is TSh 41.5 trillion (USD $18bn). What does this budget mean? How is this budget going to be financed, and is this budget likely to speed up business’ growth, maintain or attract new investment to Tanzania ?

This FY2022/23 budget was tabled at a time the Tanzanian economy is growing at 4.9% compared to a growth of 4.8% in 2020. The increase was attributed to diverse efforts taken by the Government, including the execution of the Tanzania Covid Socio-Economic Response Plan and strategic investment, especially in energy, water, health, education, roads, railway, and airports infrastructure.

The economic activities with the highest growth rate at the time the FY2022/23 budget was tabled were arts and entertainment (19.4%); electricity supply (10.0%); mining and quarrying (9.6%); and information and communication (9.1%).

In 2021, the GDP at the current prices was TSh 161.5 trillion compared to TSh 151.2 trillion in 2020. Tanzania’s mainland population was estimated to be 57.7 million people in 2021 compared to 55.9 million people in 2020. Per capita GDP was TSh 2.79 million in 2021, compared to TSh 2.7 million in 2020. Further, the inflation rate increased to 3.8% in April 2022 compared to 3.3% in April 2021.

The rise in inflation was an outcome of reasons beyond the Government’s control including disruptions in the production and distribution chains of goods and services in the world market because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The total proposed expenditure in the 2022/23 budget is TSh 41.5 trillion (USD $18bn) for recurrent and development expenditure. Out of that amount, TSh 26.5 trillion (USD $11.5bn) is allocated for recurring expenditure, equivalent to 63.8% of the total budget and TSh 15.0 trillion (USD $6.5bn) for development expenditure. The sources of funds are government domestic revenue (including LGAs own sources) estimated at TSh 28.0 trillion (USD 12.1bn), equivalent to 67.5% of the total; external grants and concessional loans estimated at TSh 4.65 trillion (USD $2.0bn) equivalent to 11.2% of the total; and domestic and external non-concessional loans TSh 8.8 trillion (USD $3.8bn) equivalent to 21% of the total.

The theme for the 2022/23 budget is Realising Competitiveness and Industrialization for Human Development. Priority sectors include agriculture, livestock, fisheries, energy, investment, and trade. Tanzania theme is very well in line with the EAC Partner States’ budget theme for 2022/23, which is Accelerating Economic Recovery and Enhancing Productive Sectors for Improved Livelihoods.

The budget however for FY 2022/23 aims to achieve macroeconomic policy targets of real GDP growth rate of 4.7% in 2022 and 5.3% by 2023; holding inflation between an average of 3.0% to 7.0% in the medium term; domestic revenue collection of 14.9% of GDP in 2022/23; tax revenue collection is projected at 11.7% of GDP in 2022/23; and maintaining foreign reserves sufficient to cover at least four months of imports of goods and services.

In FY 2022/23, the Minister for Finance and Planning further proposed several changes in tax laws including the Income Tax Act, the Value Added Tax Act, the Tax Administration Act, the Excise (Management and Tariff) Act. The Minister proposed amendments to existing provisions as well as new provisions in tax laws.

Tax and related changes
The Minister proposed the following amendments to the Income Tax Act, 2004:
• Introduction of a tax rate of 3.5% for taxpayers with turnover exceeding shillings 11 million but not exceeding shillings 100 million in a year.
• Improvement of the Tanzania Revenue Authority payment systems, to enable payments of taxes through mobile wallets.
• Recognition of alternative financing as approved by the Bank of Tanzania to be the same as conventional borrowing to enhance financial inclusion and access to finance.
• Granting the Minister for Finance powers to waive income tax for strategic investors after approval by the National Investment Steering Committee, as indicated under the Tanzania Investment Act, and as subsequently approved by the Cabinet.
• Abolishment of withholding tax exemption on rent paid by individuals for residential houses, apartments, and commercial premises. The Commissioner General for Tanzania Revenue Authority will enter an Agency Memorandum of Understanding with the President’s Office Regional Administration and Local Government on the administration and collection of this tax.
• Capital gain tax exemption on any transaction involved on the entry into force and implementation of agreements involving the transfer or surrender to a joint venture company of any project; or the authorisation, issue, distribution, or transfer to the Government of the free carried interest shares.
• Capital gain tax exemption on equity shares freely surrendered to the Government through the Treasury Registrar.
• Withholding tax exemption on coupon for corporate and municipal bond.
• Reduction of the withholding tax on service fees paid to nonresidents in the film industry from 15% to 10%.
• Introduction of 2% digital service tax on the turnover of non-resident service providers.
• Introduction of 2% final withholding tax on payments made to small scale miners.
• Introduction of an annual income tax of TSh 3.5 million per truck and passenger bus and
• Introduction of an advance income tax of TSh 20 per litre for retailers of petroleum products.

In relation to VAT, the Minister proposed exemptions on various items including the following:
• Raw materials and Machinery under Chapter 84 and 85 of the East African Community Common External Tariff solely and directly used in the manufacturing of fertilizers by an approved manufacturer. Exemption will be granted upon approval by the Minister for Agriculture.
• Unprocessed green vanilla pods for equity purpose as treatment of other unprocessed agricultural products that are exempted from VAT.
• Locally manufactured sisal twine.
• Ultra-High Temperature (UHT) milk and yoghurt, and dairy packaging materials.
• Pasture seeds (grass seeds) and pasture legumes seeds.
• Machines and tools solely and directly used by the military and armed forces. The exemption will be granted upon approval of the goods by the Minister responsible for defence and security. VAT exemption is proposed to be abolished on the supply of air charter services, as well as on smartphones, tablets and modems.

Other proposed VAT amendments:
• Treatment of alternative financing arrangement as conventional borrowing to enhance financial inclusion and accessibility of financial services.
• Zero rate for one year, locally manufactured double refined edible oil.
• Zero rate for one year, locally manufactured fertilizer.
• Grant power to the Minister for Finance to grant VAT exemption on strategic investments after approval by the National Investment Steering Committee (NISC).
• Expand the list of capital goods that qualify for VAT deferment to include tractors, trailers and semi-trailers, and other vehicles not mechanically propelled.

Changes proposed to the Local Government Finance Act include exempting crop cess on seeds to provide relief to farmers and enhance productivity, and reducing forest produce cess from 5% to 3% to provide relief to forestry traders and support growth of forestry sector.

Further, the Minister proposed to reduce the Workers’ Compensation Fund contribution rate from 0.6% to 0.5%, to align the rate payable for private and public sector employees; to reduce the rate of royalty from 3% to 1% on coal used as energy raw material in factories, to encourage investment; to introduce an export levy of 30% or USD$150 per metric tonne (whichever is higher) on copper waste and scrap metals, to protect local manufacturers.

On the Insurance Act, the Minister, expanded the scope for mandatory insurance to include public markets, commercial buildings, imported goods, marine vessels, ferries, and pontoons. On the Foreign Vehicle Transit Charges Act, he reduced transit charges for vehicles exceeding 3 axles from USD 16/100 km to USD 10 or its equivalent in convertible currency for every 100 km. On the Bank of Tanzania Act, he increased the limit on Government borrowing to not exceed 18% of approved domestic revenue in the current fiscal year instead of the current rate of one eighth of the domestic revenue collected in the preceding fiscal year.

Sources: MOFP budget speech for FY2022/23- presented at parliament-Dodoma, Tanzania. Effectiveness of the 2022/23 budget start 1st July 2022

by Arrad Tabandeh
Arrad is a TDT Volunteer currently studying at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)

IMF approves more funding for Tanzania to deal with the effects of pandemic and war
In July the IMF Executive Board approved a forty month $1.05 billion extended credit facility (ECF) arrangement with Tanzania. This type of support is designed to provide financial assistance to countries with protracted balance of payments problems, and is part of a broader reform at the Fund to make their financial support more flexible and better suited to the needs of countries requiring more diverse assistance. It is seen as a major tool in providing medium-term support to Tanzania and its economic programmes aimed at stability and sustainability.

This follows the Fund’s emergency support to Tanzania in 2021, as overall financing since the start of last year is now equivalent to 300% of the country’s special drawing rights (the IMF’s own currency used as an international reserve asset and allocated between countries). The arrangement is expected to accelerate further bilateral and multilateral financial support.

The purpose of this ECF is to assist Tanzania with the spill-over effects from the war in Ukraine which is stalling the country’s gradual recovery from the pandemic. The programme draws from the key priorities of the government’s Five-Year Development Plan which commits to the improvement of living conditions through measures aimed at building a “competitive and industrial economy for human development”. The authorities will therefore use this additional funding in accordance with the Plan and invest in infrastructure, skills-training, as well as strengthen the business environment to facilitate private sector success. Contributions are also thought to be made towards scaling up vaccination efforts.

The IMF has forecasted Tanzania’s GDP to grow 4-5% each year from a base of about $65 billion in 2021, with the current account deficit floating around 4% of GDP. Therefore, while financing of $1 billion across nearly four years covers a relatively small amount of the deficit, it is still sufficient in driving reforms and building a sustainable base for future revenues and growth.

Speaking to “Daily News”, a cross-section of economists said they were optimistic that the credit will offset the rising prices of commodities. They also suggested that the fund should be used to provide subsidies on imported fertilisers, to reduce prices of the soil nutrient encouraging the country to become more self-reliant. It is hoped that this could go some way in alleviating the worsening cost of living crisis.

Mr. Bo Li, Deputy Managing Director at the IMF mentioned how executive directors “commended authorities for their economic response to the pandemic and the policies enacted to mitigate the spill-overs from the war in Ukraine”, but also referred to the “considerable development and reform challenges and external headwinds” that the country is facing. It is against this backdrop as well as “recognising Tanzania’s strong track record in reform implementation” that the directors supported the country’s request for an ECF arrangement.

The directors also highlighted the authorities’ continued work in “rebalancing expenditure towards social spending and improving its efficiency and execution.” They welcomed the progress made in establishing fiscal transparency in the nation alongside emphasising the importance of raising government revenue to address priority spending, including the containment of rising food and fuel prices. This can also help pave the way for a more sustainable fiscal policy in the country, freeing up room for longer-term development.

Plans are in place to pay out $150 million immediately. The financing is Tanzania’s first IMF policy-reform funding programme in a decade and comes after the Washington-based lender raised the country’s risk of debt distress to moderate from low last year. For now the fund has encouraged the implementation of Tanzania’s ambitious reform agenda, alongside stressing the need to continue to address climate risks.

by Dr Hildebrand Shayo

Banks’ lending rates to business, and the effect on economic growth in Tanzania
The issue of banks in Tanzania being advised to reduce loaning interest rates is on the lips of politicians, government officials, the President herself, borrowers and loan seekers, whether small or large, seeking loans to run their businesses. Despite these efforts and calls, interest rates charged by lending institutions remain high, something that in-turn affects the growth of productive economic activities, business especially for SMEs and start-up businesses that offer employment on one hand but also tax base for government revenue. Why are interest rates not declining in Tanzanian market? Is the approach used to reduce rates wrong or inappropriate? Or is there a problem in the financial system and interest rates setting system in Tanzania? These are the issues that need reflection with an economic eye to assess why the situation remains the same despite countless calls to reduce the rates. This assessment described concludes with hints as to why it will be thought-provoking to bring down lending rates and what can be done.

Gain access to loans, interest rates and business lending setting panorama
As clamour to lower lending rates continues, Tanzanian borrowers, small or large should not expert reduced loans interest rates soon, notwithstanding lowered policy instrument rates and regular government officials’ reminders that include other strict measures issued by the Bank of Tanzania.

The conventional approach stems from the fact that interest is the return for the productive use of principal. Since physical capital is purchased with monetary funds, then, the rate of interest is taken to be the rate of return over capital invested in physical capital assets. Whereas the demand for investable capital draws from investment decisions of the business sector, the supply of capital results from supplies of savings derived from households. Loanable funds are the sums of money supplied and demanded at any time in the money market, where: funds available for lending are inclined by the savings of the people and the additions to the money supply (normally through credit creation by banks), while demand for loanable funds is determined by the need for investment plus desire for hoarding.

Within this theoretical background, although BOT practises different measures such as reducing statutory reserves money (SRM) lowering Repos, lending to banks, and reducing yields for debt instruments, these efforts have not yet translated into effective lowered lending rates as anticipated.

Actual lending rates remain at around 16% by most banks, except one bank that recently announced the reduction of rates for personal loans targeting farmers. This makes it harder for borrowers to access loans, and indeed the cost of finance makes it challenging to make profit.

High rates are good for the banks and their shareholders but damaging to viable economic activities that are vital for county’s economic growth. High banks rates also discourage prospective borrowers from applying loans, as others have opted to borrow from individual private lenders or family members.

Presently, there are some banks which lend up to 21% – four times of the BOT policy rate – while maximum mortgage lending rates in Tanzania is 19%. Digital lenders issuing loans through mobile money services, which are assumed to be cheaper due to lower operating costs, lend at a fixed cost between 11% and 15% of the loan among. This is repaid within a much shorter time period: up to a month. When annualised, rates charged by telecoms are a killer, though many users do not realise on how is expensive the loan through mobile phones can be.

Research on informal lending market finds loans at rates that are higher than mobile lenders or banks, as the cost of funds are ranging from 30% to 50% per month. Here risk of non-payment is the key driver.

The main drivers of high lending rates in Tanzania’s lending market are high operating costs, non-performing loans, and cost of funds. Interest income is the major earning stream for all banks.

Tanzanian banks’ operating costs are related to employee salaries and benefits, which account for an average of 44% of the banking industry operating costs and have been increasing over time. Folks familiar with banking industry supposes that maximum monthly salary of large bank CEO is TSh 60m (around USD $25,000), very roughly equivalent to a profit of a bank branch. Likewise, monthly pay for CEO of other medium and small bank ranges between TSh 15-30m.

The implications of these, is simple that efforts should be directed at improving operation efficiencies aiming at reducing banks operating costs. The key areas of attention are with respect to employees’ salaries and how to improve bank’s productivity.

Another notable cost that is not often taken seriously is the cost of premises and equipment – rent, transport fleet, equipment and utilities – which together constitute another 16% of the banking industry operating costs. In this case, ICT advancement in the country in service provision could bring these costs down somewhat.

As far as non-performing loans (NPLs) are concerned, this has become a major problem for most banks. Factors affecting NPLs comprise global financial crises, credit screening weakness, a decrease in supply of loans partly, and capital enhancement measures. In Tanzania, banks are aiming to comply with the regulator’s benchmark of at most 5% of NPLs. Some banks have gone beyond this figure due to various genuine reasons, including economic uncertainty and instability of the labour market, as well as unethical practices among loan officers. Each of these drivers nonetheless are subject to discussion as each might have its own story.

Cost of funds is another factor that keeps banks’ lending rates high, banks cannot lend money at lower rates than they themselves pay. According to BOT, in Tanzania, the overall interbank cash rates which banks uses to lend each other, up to the period of seven-day ranges between 4.4% to 4.5% while overnight was at 3.72%. Here, some banks that have good relationship with each other usually outsource expensive funds outside the country when there is liquidity shortage locally and vice versa.

Regulator’s role and financial market dynamism in Tanzania
In recent years, the BOT has announced various policy measures to ease lending rules which include lowering the statutory minimum reserves requirement, lowering the discount rates as well as providing regulatory flexibility on restructuring of loans. For instance, in 2021, the central bank lowered its benchmark lending rates from 7% to 5% to cushion banks from Covid-19 impact. This together with the policy change aimed at to provide additional space for bank to borrow at a lower cost, hopes to encourage lower rates by banks. To spur liquidity, the regulator correspondingly resolved to lower statutory minimum reserve to 6% from 7% effective June 8, 2021.

Various initiatives as stated in this analysis are now being practiced by various financiers including commercial banks. Initiatives such as cluster marketing where employees of the government established parastatals and corporate establishment are able to enjoy good, lowered lending rates may inspire many to get loans at costs that are low compared to what banks charges, but for how long? These tactics exclude important economic groups such as traders, farmers and businesspeople. And importantly they do not target help at start-ups and SMEs viewed as riskier prospects, though these could benefit from lower rates.

Policy Implications
Attempts examined in this article to help deal with high lending rates alone on the other hand will not bear fruits without political will. As such, top government officials, including President Samia Suluhu Hassan on various occasions, have made an appeal to the banks to rethink and consider lowering lending rates telling them that they are part of the wider economy. Likewise other leaders also have from time to time have been calling for banks to reduce lending rate, but this is unworkable in real sense.

The implications of the analysis expressed in this article are that high interest rates signal banking sector inefficiency, and when that occurs it hampers not only financial development but also economic growth and potential productivity enhancement.

In June 2021, the President said, “financial institutions need to cut real interest rates in line with measures implemented by the BOT,” and suggested that rates for short term loans should be lowered to below 10%. Will banks in Tanzania heed the President’s call, or will they turn a deaf ear?

Hildebrand Shayo, BA (hons) MA, PhD, is currently a manager, responsible for Economic Research and Planning at TIB-DFI Development Bank, wholly 100% owned by the Government of Tanzania. TIB development bank is one of development financial institution responsible for financing long-term infrastructure and development projects with development impact.