ECONOMICS & BUSINESS

by Valerie Leach

Poverty Reduction
Much of the news about the economy and business suggests fast-mov­ing new developments. Some of them, notably prospects for gas, are reported elsewhere in this journal. Nonetheless, the Tanzanian economy is still characterised as a basic agricultural one, where rural households continue to live in poverty.
In a recent survey of opinions about the challenges they face, Tanzanians said that poverty, health and education remain the biggest challenges, with 63% reporting poverty to be the biggest challenge (up from 49% in 2012). (Twaweza: “Tanzania towards 2015: Citizen Preferences,” Nov 2014).

The recently released report of the 2011/12 Household Budget Survey by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that one third of the rural population live below the poverty line. (NBS, Household Budget Survey, Main Report, October 2014)

Food Poverty
Rural 13.7 (2007) 11.3 (2011/12)
Dar es Salaam 3.2 (2007) 1.0 (2011/12)
Other Urban 8.9 (2007) 8.7 (2011/12)
Tanzania Mainland 11.8 (2007) 9.7 (2011/12)

Basic Needs Poverty
Rural 39.4 (2007) 33.3 (2011/12)
Dar es Salaam 14.1 (2007) 4.1 (2011/12)
Other Urban 22.7 (2007) 21.7 (2011/12)
Tanzania Mainland 34.4 (2007) 28.2 (2011/12)
Percentage of Population Living in Poverty, Tanzania Mainland, 2007 and 2011/12

Income poverty has been reduced in all parts of the country, but particularly in Dar, and the difference in poverty rates between Dar compared with elsewhere is more dramatic than ever. While the reduction in rural income poverty is modest, living conditions and access to communication improved from 2007 to 2011/12. The percentage of households living in homes with a modern roof has risen from 55% to 68% and those with modern walls from 35% to 46%.

Mobile phones
57% of all households now report having a phone, almost all of them a mobile phone. In rural areas, ownership of a mobile phone increased from 14% in 2007 to 45% 2011/12. Mobile phone ownership reached 88% in Dar and 77% in other urban areas in 2011/12. (NBS, Household Budget Survey, Main Report, October 2014)

Macroeconomic developments
GDP growth rates continue to be strong – 7% in 2013 and estimated by the IMF to be at this same rate in 2014. In October 2014 the annual inflation rate was 5.9%, a fall from 6.6% in September 2014. The NBS has revised the estimates of GDP, increasing the overall estimate of GDP in the base year of 2007 by 28%; and of agriculture GDP by 26%. The revisions result in estimated per capita GDP for 2007 at TSh 699,127 compared with the old estimate of TSh 547,081.

Government revenue and expenditure for fiscal 2013/14 was below target and development expenditure will continue to be adversely affected by the withholding by aid donors of general budget support. Recurrent expenditure amounted to TSh 10,085.1 billion, or 91% of target, while development expenditure was 70% of estimate. The shortfall in development expenditure in 2013/14 was on account of lower disbursement of project funds and shortfall in external non-concessional borrowing.
(Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Review, October 2014, www.bot-tz.org)

Annual growth rates of GDP at constant 2001 market prices

Annual growth rates of GDP at constant 2001 market prices

An IMF mission to Tanzania in October 2014 concluded that, “Macroeconomic performance has been broadly in line with the pro­gram, although new challenges have emerged during the last three months. Economic growth was strong during the first half of 2014 and is expected to remain close to 7% this year… Despite significant revenue shortfalls in the 2013/14 fiscal year compared to the original budget assumption, the fiscal deficit was contained to 4.4% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)…. However, reflecting continued weaknesses in the ability to control expenditure commitments, this performance coincided with further accumulation of expenditure arrears… Combined with delays in the disbursement of budget financing from development partners, related to the Independent Power Tanzania Limited (IPTL) case, this has been a challenging backdrop for program implementation. .. The expected implementation of VAT reforms in early 2015 should help bolster the revenue base. The mission welcomes the government’s intention to address comprehensively arrears to suppliers and pension funds. (IMF Press Release No. 14/490, October 29, 2014)

Investment and Business
Within the East African Community, Tanzania recorded the highest Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in 2013, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) World Investment Report 2014. Tanzania’s inflows stood at $1.872 billion followed by Uganda at $1.146 billion. Direct investment from UK was the largest share, at 23% of the total. Recently discovered gas reserves in Tanzania are propelling investor interest. The report also noted that underdeveloped infrastructure has made the country a high-cost location for doing business. (The East African, 27 September 2014)

Tanzania is determined to float a planned $700 million bond in the international market. The government is hoping to capitalise on the investor appetite and stable markets that saw Kenya raise $2 billion in June at fairly affordable terms. Tanzania intends to fund the $1.23 billion Mtwara gas-pipeline project, a $10 billion port at Bagamoyo, new roads, railways and power plants. (The East African, 20 September 2014)

In August, the government announced that a project to construct a major centre to serve as a common entry point for imports from China will start before the end of this year. The centre will be run under a Public Private Partnership (PPP) arrangement with China represented by Yiwu Pan-Africa International Investment Corporation and Tanzania represented by EPZA. (The Citizen, 21 August 2014)

Trade Agreements
In September 2014, Tanzania joined Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda in rolling out the clearance of goods under the East Africa Community Single Customs Territory (SCT).The system seeks to eliminate dumping of goods in countries of transit, thus protecting industries and jobs. (The East African, 13 September 2014)

East Africa and the European Union (EU) have agreed on an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). As well as dropping customs duties, the agreement covers free movement of goods and cooperation on customs and taxation. More than half of the imports the EAC has agreed to liberalise are currently duty-free under the EAC Customs Union. Those subject to duty will be liberalised over a period of 25 years, with most of the cuts within 15 years. (The Citizen, 18 October 2014)

Free Trade Area
In December, the heads of state from 26 Eastern and Southern African countries are due to sign an agreement for a free trade area (FTA). Encompassing member states of the East African Community (EAC), Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and Southern African Development Community (SADC), the FTA will cre­ate a market of over 800 million people. The EAC, which is already a common market, has four member states in COMESA and one member — Tanzania— is in SADC. Ten countries in the region are already members of customs unions. (The Citizen, 19 November 2014)

Rural Communications and Access to Finance
An investment by a Vietnamese firm, Viettel, estimated to be of TSh 1.7trn will connect at least 4,000 villages, about 40% of the country’s total number, to a 3G communication network by 2017. The launch of the project in Coast Regions came after President Kikwete visited the company in Vietnam. The firm has been contracted to connect all dis­trict hospitals, police stations, post offices and District Commissioners’ offices, plus three government schools in every district. (The Guardian, 14 November 2014)

Improved telecommunications are expected to help farmers’ access to finance. At a conference in Arusha in November, Vice President Mohamed Gharib Bilal said that poverty cannot be seriously addressed without removing constraints on productivity, including financing of smallholder agriculture and agribusiness. Governor of the Bank of Tanzania Benno Ndulu, said over two-thirds of the working population derived its livelihood from agriculture. Limited access to finance was an impediment to farmers in adopting better technologies. Developments in communication technology are improving the situation; 57% of adults currently have access to formal financial services compared to barely 15% in 2009.

A new study by the Economist Intelligence Unit confirms that Tanzania has the most conducive conditions in sub-Saharan Africa for expanding access to financial services for under-served populations. The use of mobile technology facilitates payment services, including those who have been under-served or unbanked, with the adoption of compre­hensive and conducive regulation of e-money and mobile payments.
(The Citizen, 20 and 24 November 2014)

MOBILE MONEY

by Ben Taylor

Mobile money has revolutionised financial services in East Africa, starting with M-Pesa in Kenya and spreading from there. All Tanzania’s major mobile phone networks offer similar services, through which users can send money at very low cost to anyone in the country using a standard mobile phone.

The global association of mobile phone network operators, GSMA, has recently published a report on mobile money in Tanzania, with a chart showing the total value of mobile money transactions since 2007:

Graph showing yearly value of mobile money transactions. Source: GSMA, data from Bank of Tanzania & Central Bank of Kenya

Two points are worth highlighting here. First, though Kenya was undoubtedly the trendsetter, Tanzania is fast catching up, and looks set to overtake Kenya during 2014.

Second, take a look at the Y-axis label on the left. These figures are in billion US$. In other words, the total value of mobile money transactions in Tanzania in 2013 was US$17.7 billion. This is a huge amount – equivalent to over half (54%) of Tanzania’s GDP*. Which means in one sense Tanzania has already overtaken Kenya, where the value of mobile money transactions in 2013 was “only” 49% of GDP*:

graph_mobile

This raises the question: is Tanzania the first country in the world where mobile money transactions are worth more than half the country’s GDP? Quite possibly it is.

* GDP Estimates are from IMF (2013): Tanzania US$32.5bn, Kenya US$45bn

ECONOMICS & BUSINESS

by Paul Gooday

Municipalities in Dar and Tanga to raise capital through DSE
Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE) Chief Executive Moremi Marwa has said that the time has come for the municipalities intending to implement various economic projects to raise capital through stock market. The Capital Markets and Securities Authority (CMSA) initiated and supported the move and according to the Chief Executive officer of CMSA, Nasama Massinda, municipal bonds are soon to be a reality in three councils.

The government through the assistance of the World Bank sponsored a two-phase municipal bonds study. The study brought to light the fact that the prevailing government policy would not support efficient issuing of bonds by Local Government Authorities (LGAs) for public subscription.

The first phase of the project strived to establish the feasibility and required policy changes for a thriving municipal bonds market in Tanzania. The second phase was to develop the legal and operational framework for the municipal bond markets in the country.

The former Dar es Salaam City Council director, Bakari Kingobi, was quoted as saying that the municipalities now qualify to issue loans. “Although we have not received the official go ahead from the Bank of Tanzania (BoT), the signs are promising,” he said adding that according to experts, it will help raise resources for development of schools, airports, hospitals and other facilities. Presently, all local authorities depend largely on subventions from the central government and taxation to raise revenue for their expenditures. (The Guardian)

Tanzania urges Chinese to build factories
The Minister for Industry and Trade, Dr Abdallah Kigoda, called on the Chinese business community to build manufacturing industries in the country to mutually benefit both nations. The call was made at the launch of Brands of China African Showcase 2014. The event brought over 100 Chinese companies showcasing products. Products displayed range from machinery, vehicles, home appliances, electronics and solar energy products, consumer goods, building materials, chemical, medical and comprehensive products.

Dr Kigoda said it is time for the Chinese nation to invest in the manufacturing sector which would add value to the country’s profile by reducing the exporting of raw materials which adversely affects the economy. “A great part of our exports are raw materials which after being processed outside, are then sold back to us. We are acting as a global supermarket for goods made from materials produced in our country,” said Dr Kigoda.

He said this has to change because it has adverse impacts on employment and the economy. He suggests that one way of addressing the challenge is through promoting value addition in the country. Dr Kigoda acknowledged the Chinese interest in doing business and investing in the country in different area such as a TSh16 trillion ($10 billion) investment in Bagamoyo Export Processing Zone. He also said the current efforts of laying down infrastructure in Kigoma Region will be an area that Chinese communities can invest in. (The Citizen)

ECONOMICS

by Paul Gooday

China biggest foreign investor in Tanzania
China’s total direct investment in Tanzania increased from US $700 million in 2011 to US $2.1 billion last year, becoming the biggest foreign investor in the country. Bilateral trade has soared in the same period, reaching over US $2.5 billion by the end of 2012.

According to Imara Equity Research, this investment is focused on railways, ports, road construction, gas pipelines and wind power farms. It has not only boosted economic growth but also created more than 150,000 direct jobs. Up to 19 projects worth billions of dollars include construction of the new port at Bagamoyo, set to be the largest and most modern in Africa. The harbour is expected to be in operation by 2017 and will handle 20 times more cargo than the Dar es Salaam, which is Tanzania’s current major import and export gateway in East Africa. Additionally, a Chinese US $1.2 billion soft loan for a 523km pipeline connecting Dar es Salaam and the Mtwara gas field was endorsed in September 2012 between the Tanzanian government and the Exim Bank.
(The Citizen)

Single Currency and Monetary Union
The East African Community (EAC) Monetary Union Protocol was signed in December 2013 by the five heads of state in Kampala, kicking off ambitious plans to have a common currency within 10 years. The single currency is aimed at enhancing trade in the region.

A few weeks later, however, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde, cautioned EAC member states against rushing the Monetary Union. Addressing the Kenya private sector she said the EAC was not yet ready for the move and needed to address key issues before uniting their currencies. The challenges include increasing non-tariff barriers, varying economies and different tax regimes. She added: “As a member of the European Monetary Union, I have to tell you that it is a very exciting and ambitious project. … make sure you learn from our mistakes, so that the East African Monetary Union can even teach the Europeans how to do it right.” (The Citizen)

Mobile Payment Transactions
Mobile money platforms offer instant money transfer using phones, which helps cut costs and saves time as compared to physically transporting money. The value of mobile payment transactions jumped more than three times in the twelve month period ended December 2013. This was due to increased use of mobile phones in payment of services such as utility bills. Further, several banking institutions have formed partnerships with mobile network operators to facilitate customer transactions, according to the regulator in its latest Banking Supervision report.
(The East African)

Debt dilemma
Tanzania faces a new debt crisis unless government moves fast to contain its current borrowing, which has seen national liabilities more than double in less than 10 years. Until around 2006, the public debt as a percentage of GDP was almost 70%. Debt forgiveness brought that ratio down to about 21% the following year, but since then it has been growing at an alarming rate.

“The national debt as a percentage of GDP is now about 38%. That is a manageable debt ratio,” said Prof Richard Mshomba, a Tanzanian economist based in the US. “However, what is alarming is that hat ratio has been steadily growing and Tanzania could find itself in a debt crisis.”

Some see that happening as early as next year, when the debt may hit TSh30 trillion, about three times what it was when the current government assumed power in December 2005. They warn that the crisis would derail economic prospects in the wake of huge gas discoveries and undermine efforts to alleviate poverty. (The Citizen)

LOW CONFIDENCE IN ECONOMY

by Ben Taylor

Though Tanzania has posted some enviable rates of economic growth in recent years – averaging around 7% in recent years – a new Africa-wide survey shows that Tanzanians are unconvinced by the state of the economy. The report, from Afrobarometer, found that Tanzanians were consistently much less positive about their country’s economic situation than people elsewhere on the continent.

Fewer Tanzanians (8%) were positive about the current state of the economy than in any other country. Twice as many Tanzanians said that they thought the economy had got worse in the past twelve months (51%) as said it had got better (25%). Fewer Tanzanians (22%) said that they expected the economy to improve in the coming twelve months than in any other country.

1) How would you describe the present economic condition of this country?

1) How would you describe the present economic condition of this country?

2) Looking back, how do you rate economic conditions in this country compared to one year ago?

2) Looking back, how do you rate economic conditions in this country compared to one year ago?

3) Looking ahead, do you expect the economic conditions in this country in 12 months time to be better or worse?

3) Looking ahead, do you expect the economic conditions in this country in 12 months time to be better or worse?

BRITISH AID – NEW DIRECTION

by Ben Taylor

Prime Minister Pinda with Justine Greening (extreme right), British High Commissioner Dianna Melrose and the head of DfID Marshall Elliott

Prime Minister Pinda with Justine Greening (extreme right), British High Commissioner Dianna Melrose and the head of DfID Marshall Elliott

The British International Development Secretary, Justine Greening, signalled a shift towards a more pro-business approach for British aid in Tanzania while visiting the country in November. She was accompanied by representatives of 18 British and international business and social enterprises, including Unilever, JCB (construction equipment), Mott Macdonald (engineering consultants), Diageo and SABMiller (brewers), and Swire Pacific Offshore (oil and gas services). It is the first time DfID has hosted such a delegation.

“The Chinese government has invested and it’s time the British government makes sure we’re helping British businesses have that advantage to invest in Africa too,” Ms Greening said.

Investments in agriculture
The Department for International Development (DfID) will invest £20m in four new partnerships with businesses and not-for-profit organisations working in Tanzania. DfID will collaborate with social enterprise and business with loans and equity, generating a return that can be reinvested. The largest partnership is with Unilever, the Wood Family Trust and the Gatsby Foundation.

DfID will invest £7.5m in “a major new tea plantation” in the southern highlands. A second investment in tea production will go to the Tanzania Tea Packers (TATEPA) Wakulima Tea Factory in Rungwe district. DfID will provide up to £2.5m to fund a hydro-power plant that will reduce energy costs and increase the factory’s productivity. Further investments are to Kilombero Plantations Ltd (£6.7m) to finance a rice husk gasification plant and £3.3m to Equity for Tanzania, to enable small agri-businesses and farmers to access finance for agricultural equipment.

These investments were announced by Ms Greening at the launch of a new High Level Prosperity Partnership (HLPP), which was attended by the Tanzanian Prime Minister, Mizengo Pinda. Tanzania is one of five countries to be part of the partnership, alongside Angola, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Mozambique.

DfID hope that the partnership will see the UK and Tanzania create even closer commercial links and will “double the number of UK companies doing business in Tanzania in the renewable energy and agriculture sectors by 2015.” The partnership will focus primarily on four sectors: oil and gas, renewable energy, agriculture and strengthening business environment. The London Stock Exchange Group will provide training to financial professionals, regulators and government officials in Tanzania. Prime Minister Pinda expressed his hope “that this Partnership will open a new window of opportunity to these important areas of cooperation”.

Transport and trade
Later in her visit, Ms Greening announced initiatives aimed at reducing transport costs within East Africa. Following a visit to the Dar es Salaam port, she launched a £10.5m fund to support a scheme run by TradeMark East Africa, called the Logistics Innovation For Trade (LIFT) fund. The LIFT fund will provide match grants to encourage private sector investment in freight and other logistics technologies and busi­ness processes in East Africa. The aim is to reduce transport time along the main transport corridors in East Africa, stimulate further research and create systems for tracking industry performance and efficiency.
East Africa currently has some of the highest freight and transport costs in the world.

A new direction
Justine Greening was keen to emphasise that this initiative represents a change of direction for DfID. “For too long the development world has seen the skills and potential of the private sector as something separate to its own efforts,” she said. “I want to take a different approach. The only way for developing countries to end their dependency on aid is to create more jobs, growth and tax receipts. In the end, for individuals too, a job is the only sustainable route out of poverty. Business can bring much needed investment and innovation at a scale that can be transformational, providing prospects and economic opportunities for communities. It is sensible for us to work with business to make sure their plans help local communities. This is also firmly in our own interest, as we are helping to open up markets for British goods.”

The new approach has attracted criticism that it would benefit the wealthy more than the poor. Christine Haigh, from the World Development Movement said: “It’s clear that this initiative is very much about finding new markets for UK companies and very little about reducing poverty for the majority of Tanzanians”.

The move is the latest evolution of British aid policy in Tanzania since the Conservative-led coalition took office in 2010. There was a reduction in the aid provided as General Budget Support (from 66% in 2010/11 to less than 30% in 2013/14), but an overall increase in total aid linked to the promise to spend 0.7% of British GDP on aid. In 2010/11, DfID spent £150m in Tanzania and this will rise to £192m in 2014/15.

When Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Tanzania earlier in 2013, he signed a $500m bilateral trade deal with Tanzania and agreed a $10bn investment in a new port in Bagamoyo.

TANZANIA’S ISOLATION IN THE EAST AFRICAN COMMUNITY

by David Brewin

Once again Britain and Tanzania seem to be facing a similar dilemma
– how do you join a multilateral organisation aiming to bring neighbouring countries together in the common interest without sacrificing important parts of your own sovereignty? In Europe, Britain was originally forced to delay its entry into the European Union because another member state, France, objected that the country was not ‘European enough’. Then Britain was allowed to enter and it subsequently signed several treaties which were clearly aimed at the ultimate creation of a European Federation. It was many years before Britons began to understand what was happening and how its sovereignty was being undermined. But at the same time, for many the EU offered attractive features in trade and free movement of people that Britain did want.

Over the years the Conservative party almost broke into two on the issue and the anti-EU UKIP party rapidly gained support. The British government has now decided to hold a referendum in 2017 (if it wins the election in 2015) on whether Britain should abandon its close ties with the other EU countries and go it alone.

The ‘Coalition of the Willing’
To the surprise of many, and quite suddenly, Tanzania finds itself facing the same kind of dilemma as Britain, and also a growing isolation. Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda have become known as the ‘Coalition of the Willing’, pushing ahead with political, economic and infrastructure projects, leaving Tanzania side-lined from important discussions. Tanzania was not invited to (or decided to stay away from) several recent EAC meetings. As this issue of TA went to press the ‘Coalition’ were discussing the draft of a federal constitution. Many Tanzanians believe (not without some justification) that Tanzania is not like the other EAC members, so during recent months the government has been trying to put a brake on the rush towards a political federation.

Reactions in Tanzania
At the end of October East African Cooperation Minister Samuel Sitta said that any decision concerning the EAC federation reached only by the ‘willing countries’ would not be recognised by Tanzania. On 7 November, as the crisis escalated, President Kikwete told parliament that Tanzania would never quit the East African Community, and called on her neighbours to be more accommodating. “We have come too far… to give up now….Tanzania has done nothing wrong against any EAC member state…. some leaders are said to be accusing Tanzania of dragging its feet on the integration of the EAC…..we do not have problems fast-tracking the proposed Federation. But this must be done according to the ‘Federation Protocol’…. nowhere is it said that we should skip any of the preparatory steps. But these friends of ours have decided to do so. We want to avoid what happened in 1977 [when the first EAC collapsed].” In an echo of the European Union controversy, he added: “We must bear in mind that economic gains are among the attractions for member states to remain members. If this is not done the political federation will be under threat”.

Contentious issues
The Ugandan newspaper New Vision in October listed other ‘sticking points.’ They included Tanzania’s recent expulsion of refugees; its imposition of a 35% increase in work permit fees on residents of other EAC states; a $200 fee on vehicles crossing into its territory; and its opposition to the use of national identity cards as travel documents within the EAC (because Tanzania had not completed issuing these documents to its own people).

The paper claimed that during the September 2013 terrorist attack on the Nairobi Westgate supermarket, the EAC HQ in Arusha was unable to mobilise and transfer blood to Nairobi because ‘of the complexities of moving such a delicate matter as blood’; and President Kikwete was not present at a meeting in October when Uganda abolished work permit fees for Kenyans and Rwandans. (Thank you Kenneth Mdoe for sending this – Editor)

In early August – in the East African Legislative Assembly, which meets in rotation in member countries – some members had wanted to oust the Tanzanian Speaker who was alleged to favour meeting permanently in its Arusha HQ as a way to save money.

Some observers believe that there is a power struggle going on. Kenya’s economy has always been stronger than the other EA countries, but things are now changing. Foreign investment in Kenya now lags well behind Tanzania and Uganda. Tanzania benefitted from its much longer trade relations with China, dating from when China constructed the TAZARA Railway; and China has now agreed to finance a massive port at Bagamoyo with a capacity far greater than Mombasa and Dar es Salaam put together. Kenya needs a ‘coalition of the willing’ to hang on to the huge trade prospects in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, the DRC and now South Sudan.

The land issue comes first
The first meeting of the Presidents of Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda, without Tanzania, was in Entebbe in June 2013; the second in September in Mombasa. It was revealed that, for Tanzania, land was the major issue. The country has just over half of the land mass of the EAC but less than half under agriculture. With a population explosion under way, Tanzania feared that, under a new Federation, there could be great pressure on it to open its gates to workers from neighbouring countries and its land to foreign buyers or leaseholders.

Dream dashed
Tanzanian columnist Jenerali Ulimwengu wrote in The East African newspaper that moving ahead on EAC integration without Tanzania would amount to trying to “stage Hamlet without the prince”. He also said: “Some of us fear the dream of integration of our countries is in danger of being dashed once again….Our leaders need to stop singing themselves lullabies. If they cannot engage with their natural partners, they will not be able to engage with the artificial ones they have tried to cobble together,” (referring to suggestions about Tanzania’s approaches to the members of the Southern African Development Communty (SADC) as an alternative to the EAC). Ugandan journalist Paul Busharizi wrote in New Vision: “Whatever the reasons at the top, the people of East Africa would hate to see the Community break up again”. In The East African, Tanzanian columnist Elsie Eyakuze wrote that “It is hard to tell how we have fallen into this area of mild disgrace….we are steadily dropping off every popularity chart imaginable”. Like the UK in Europe!

The original concept
The original East African Federation came into being in June 1967. It established joint ownership and operation of services managed by the East African Railways and Harbours; the East African Airways; the East African Posts and Telecommunications; the Inter-University Council for East Africa; and the East African Currency Board. There was also a Court of Appeal for East Africa and an East African Legislative Assembly. It ended when Idi Amin seized power in Uganda and when Kenya became more capitalist and Tanzania more socialist.

Although the EAC is in stormy waters at present, it has some positive achievements to its credit. It has set up a Customs Union and a Common Market. In November it was due to complete a ‘Single Customs Territory’ and work is underway on a Monetary Union. This will be implemented over 10 years, with a single currency to be launched at the last stage, which will culminate in the integration of member states’ financial markets.

New measures bring EAC countries closer
At an extraordinary summit meeting attended by all five EAC Heads of State in Kampala on November 30 some progress was made in bringing Tanzania back on board.

Tanzania argued that its slow decision making was dictated by the need to get input from its citizens. However, all five presidents signed a Monetary Union Protocol and agreed that all the partner states should conclude the ratification of this by July 2014. They also agreed that the East African passport be launched on November 2014. According to the Uganda Sunday Monitor, the Tanzanian President sat closest to his Burundian counterpart throughout the summit. All participants agreed that it would be necessary to sensitise East African citizens about the benefits of the Union. President Kenyatta said ”Let us all put an end to unnecessary rumour mongering” and President Museveni was said to have lashed out at people who employed tribalism and religion to divide the population.

But, in spite of this, Tanzania has now announced officially that it is starting a new economic partnership with Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The three countries met in Burundi and agreed to develop road, rail and water transportation infrastructure. Meanwhile Kenya with Uganda and Rwanda (now plus South Sudan) has launched a plan to develop a new 500-kilometre standard gauge railway line starting in Mombasa.

The East African is now writing about two competitive ‘coalitions of the willing’ as a possible blessing in disguise to trigger faster development in all seven countries.

TRANSPORT

by Ben Taylor

Air travel
A direct flight linking Dar es Salaam with China has been promised by Hainan Airlines of China. This was announced by the company chairman, Chen Feng, during a visit to China by the Tanzanian Prime Minister, Mizengo Pinda. Dar es Salaam should aim to become a hub airport for passengers from across Africa travelling to China. (Daily News)

The recent emergence of FastJet as a low cost airline continues to shake up the domestic scene, offering one-way tickets from Dar to Arusha, Mwanza and Mbeya for as little as TSh 32,000. This price is comparable with bus fares, and brings the cost of flights within range for a much larger number of Tanzanians.

Perhaps as a result, Precision Air is struggling. A report by the airline’s auditors, Ernst and Young, presented to their AGM in November, found the company’s finances in bad shape. The company’s liabilities exceeded its assets by $53m, and it made a $18.7m loss in its last financial year. Previously, the company requested a government bailout of $32m, but this was rebuffed. (East African)

Innovations in Dar es Salaam

Map of Dar-es-Salaam showing the Kigamboni bridge location

Map of Dar-es-Salaam showing the Kigamboni bridge location

Construction of the 6-lane road bridge connecting Kigamboni with Dar es Salaam city centre is well under way. The first of two pylons needed for the 680m long cable-stayed bridge has been completed. It will connect Kurasini and Vijibweni, upstream of Dar es Salaam port, at a reported cost of Tsh 200bn. There are also plans for a new satellite city in Kigamboni [see “Tanzania in the international media” section]. (Daily News)

The sustainability of Dar es Salaam’s experiment in commuter trains has come into question. It has been found that the 12km line between Ubungo and the city centre is running at a daily loss of Tsh 2m. The initiative [see TA 104] was the brainchild of Minister of Transport, Harrison Mwakyembe, and carries an estimated 5,000 passengers per day, each paying TSh 400 (£0.15). (Citizen)

Work continues on preparing Morogoro Road and connected major arteries for the Dar Rapid Transport scheme. Under this scheme, large commuter buses will replace daladalas, and will operate along dedicated lanes [see TA 98]. Phase 1 links Kimara, Ubungo and Morocco with Kariakoo and Kivukoni – a total of 21km – and is scheduled to begin operating in July 2015. Phase 2 (Kilwa Road) and Phase 3 (Nyerere Road) will follow. (Daily News, the Guardian)

Ongoing works on the DART

Ongoing works on the DART

Rail expansion
In what could become the biggest overhaul and expansion of Tanzania’s rail network for a generation, several schemes are in various stages of development. This has been prompted in part by China’s re-emergence as a major player in Tanzania, and in part by political and economic competition within East Africa.

A competitive tender has been launched for a railway line connecting Mtwara with the Chinese-owned Liganga-Mchuchuma mine complex in Ludewa district, Njombe region. It will pass through Songea, and will include a branch line to Mbinga and Mbamba Bay on Lake Nyasa. Newspaper reports of the expected cost range from $1.5 billion to $3.6 billion. (Citizen, Daily News)

Plans are also under discussion to upgrade and/or extend the country’s three major existing lines, though they have been met with scepticism by observers. The Minister of Transport, Harrison Mwakyembe announced a plan to upgrade the Tanga-Arusha line and to extend it as far as Musoma. Japanese support for the central line has been promised, with the eventual goal of upgrading the line to standard gauge; and there has even been talk of an extension from Isaka to the Rwanda capital, Kigali. A Chinese-supported upgrade of the TAZARA line is already in motion, with six new diesel engines delivered in November. (Daily News, Guardian)

ECONOMICS

by Paul Gooday

Economic update
According to the International Monetary Fund, the Tanzanian economy grew at 6.9% in 2012, and is projected to achieve an over 7% growth rate in 2014.

The National Bureau of Statistics announced that in the second quarter of 2013, Tanzania’s economy grew 6.7% (compared to 6.4% in the same period of 2012). The sectors that grew markedly included agriculture, electricity, construction, transport and communication.

Dr Honest Ngowi, business economics lecturer at Mzumbe University, commented that there were more indicators of growth than setbacks currently in Tanzania, that at 6.1% inflation was decreasing and that oil and gas licensing may stimulate further growth. (Tanzania Invest)

Tanzania and China promote partnership
On a recent visit to China, the Tanzanian Prime Minister signed five Memorandums of Understanding in Beijing with his Chinese equivalent. The agreements include partnerships in science and technology, tourism, textile manufacture, cotton production, and the construction of a new Chinese Embassy in Dar es Salaam.

The Prime Minister expressed his gratitude to the Chinese government for the ‘soft’ loans provided to Tanzania, explaining that in comparison to loans from other countries, the terms have been easier. Tanzania would begin to pay China back a US $24.6 million loan that was used to renovate the Tanzania-China Friendship Mills.

Tanzania and China have also signed seven contracts, totalling US $1.7 billion, for investments in electricity, construction, and research. These include a renewable energy research centre and construction of residen­tial housing and business centres throughout Tanzania. (Tanzania Invest)

Bank of Tanzania treasury bond
The Bank of Tanzania has for the first time floated 15-year treasury bonds with a 13.5 % coupon aimed at further development of the country’s financial markets. This will raise funds for long term development projects and also be a point of comparison with market instruments such as mortgage financing and corporate bonds. (The Guardian / IPP)

Protests against Electronic Fiscal Devices
The government continued to pursue its policy of insisting on the use of Electronic Fiscal Devices (EFDs) by traders although businesses had objected to the tax recording machines. Traders in Kariakoo and elsewhere closed their business for several days in protest. The Ministry of Finance and the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) said they were looking into reducing the cost of the device, but reiterated that businesses could not avoid using the EFD system as it was the best way to get accurate tax calculations and keep records.

Traders are against the EFDs, explaining that the device is too costly at TSh 800,000 per piece. The TRA said the actual price ranges between TSh 600,000 and TSh 778,000, depending on the model and type. The Deputy Minister for Finance noted that these are cheaper in comparison to other countries and were made specifically for Tanzania.

The parliamentary economic and trade committee has proposed a joint committee with traders to address the problem. The House team asked that the taxman raise public awareness, and the option of paying for EFDs in instalments was also proposed. The committee requested the government to remove import duty on the devices so as to lower costs. (Citizen)

Rapid rise on Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange
Data from the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange in late November shows that the value of all 12 local listed companies – as measured by the domestic market capitalization – more than doubled to TSh 5.96 trillion (US $3.7 billion) at the close of trading from TSh 2.94 trillion (US $1.87 billion) at the close of last year.

The Dar es Salaam bourse said market activity was skewed towards foreign investors, with local investors making a minimal contribution focused on the National Microfinance Bank (NMB) and the CRDB Bank (formerly the Cooperative Rural Development Bank).

BUSINESS & THE ECONOMY

by Paul Gooday

Overall economic outlook
Tanzania continues to do well in maintaining overall macroeconomic stability. Along with institutional and policy reforms, this has been a fundamental factor behind the strong economic growth rates. The main drivers of growth have been agriculture, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, transport and communication activities. Tanzania has also continued to record strong export growth and the country’s medium-term growth prospects are around 7%, significantly boosted by natural gas discoveries. (African Economic Outlook)

Banking on trade with China
Tanzanians doing business with China can now pay for their supplies using the Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY), thanks to an initiative by the National Bank of Commerce (NBC). The bank’s initiative enables Tanzanian traders and businesses to pay for goods and services sup­plied by Chinese firms directly by using the Yuan, thereby reducing the costs incurred through exchange rates from purchasing other cur­rencies. A recent survey released by, HSBC (based in Hong Kong) has stated that by 2015, one-third of China’s international business transac­tions will be made in Chinese Yuan. (The Citizen)

Bank of Tanzania (BoT) figures indicate that Tanzania’s exports to China, the world’s second largest economy, increased by nine times between 2005 (Tsh101 billion) and 2010 (Tsh908 billion). The total trade volume between the two countries reached USD 2.15 billion in 2011 and USD 2.5 billion in 2012. Analysts project that trade between China and Tanzania will continue to grow at more than 15 per cent annually. The BoT attributes the increase in trade volumes to receipts from travel and manufactured goods as well as traditional exports.

Chinese investment in Africa generally increased from USD900 million in 2000 to USD68 billion in 2010 aided by its ‘China-Africa’ policy – trading with Africa without any conditions.

Transport/Infrastructure
The African Development Bank (AfDB) has approved two loans totaling USD232.5 million for the 157.5-kilometre road project from Arusha to Taveta and Voi in Kenya, crossing the border at Holili (Tanzania), This aims to reduce the cost of transport and enhance access to agricul­tural inputs, larger markets and social services within the East Africa Community. Tanzania will be awarded USD120 million. The project, which is expected to be completed by December 2018, is also jointly financed by the Governments of Kenya and Tanzania. The Africa Trade Fund has extended a grant for a small component for trade facilitation at the Namanga border, bringing the total cost of the project to USD 262.2 million.

AfDB’s Regional Director for the East Africa Resource Centre confirmed that the road had been identified in the East African Regional Integration Strategy Paper (RISP 2011-2015) and the East African Transport Strategy and Regional Road Sector Development Programme of November 2011 as a priority. The East African Community (EAC) seeks to improve regional transport infrastructure to encourage economic and social development in the region, promote tourism and foster regional inte­gration, while reducing the cost of doing business by supporting cross-border and international trade.

The Arusha-Holili/Taveta-Voi Road is one of the transport corridors of the EAC region meant to increase competitiveness of the region on the global market and at the same time promote regional integration. The project road links the Northern Corridor to the Central Corridor across the common border of Tanzania and Kenya through Arusha, Minjingu (Lake Manyara) and Babati to Singida and Dodoma. The corridor at completion will link the port of Mombasa to northern and northwestern Tanzania and the landlocked countries of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo. (African Development Bank)

Tanzania becomes Japanese investment hub
The Japanese Minister for Economy, Trade and industries, Toshimitsu Motegi, announced that Japan had nominated Tanzania to be a major economic hub for business and investment in the African continent. The business community in the country have welcomed this development as a real opportunity to transform Tanzania into an industrial economy.

Among the projects lined up for implementation include the replace­ment of the central line railway network with the international gauge, and expansion of the port at Dar es Salaam to increase efficiency in service delivery. With the implementation of the plan, Minister Motegi said the industrial sector contribution to GDP, now below 20%, would more than double.

The Confederation of Tanzania Industries (CTI) chairman, Felix Mosha, stated that the governments’ efforts to improve the energy and infra­structure sectors were commendable but not enough. He reiterated that the budget increments in the energy and infrastructure sectors are welcome but remain small compared to the mounting demand for the services to reduce the cost of doing business. The sudden increases in certain charges and duties by regulatory authorities could discourage some potential investors.

If Tanzania is to achieve the Development Vision 2025, there would have to be improvements in the rules and regulations. Vision 2025 is aimed at developing the nation from an LDC (Lesser Developed Country) to a Middle Income Country. The Vision matches well with the Japanese plan to make the country a major economic hub for business and invest­ment throughout the continent. The CTI believes the Japanese plan will enhance the growth of local businesses and encourage economic development. (Daily News)