by Ben Taylor

Six months into the presidency of President Samia Suluhu Hassan, it remains unclear what her leadership will bring. In some areas she has shown a clear change of direction compared to her predecessor, while in others the difference brought about by the change of leader has been barely discernible.

There are three areas where the change is considerable. The first of these is her handling of the Coronavirus pandemic, where she has abandoned some of the more idiosyncratic approaches employed by President Magufuli [see separate article].

Second is her diplomatic outlook. Her predecessor rarely travelled outside the country and delivered a pugnacious style of foreign policy, based on the starting assumption that everyone else’s intentions towards Tanzania are malign. In contrast, President Hassan has employed a more open style and a gentler touch. And she has travelled more: already visiting Uganda (twice), Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia, meaning she has made as many foreign trips in her first six months as President Magufuli took in his entire time in office.

She has taken steps to patch up relations with Kenya, particularly over trade in agricultural produce. A Presidential visit to Kenya delivered a bilateral deal to abolish the restrictions that Nairobi had imposed on Tanzanian maize, which in turn led to a reported six-fold increase in maize exports to Kenya.

Under her leadership, the Tanzanian government has also ratified the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. This is expected to attract more investors and provide access to a large market for the country’s produce and workers. If implemented successfully, the newly formed free trade area will unlock a regional market of 1.2 billion people with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of $3.4 trillion for international investors. The AfCFTA agreement, signed in March 2018, hopes to double intra-African trade. The official start of trading was delayed in 2020 by the Coronavirus pandemic, but it began officially on January 1st 2021. Tanzania now joins 41 other countries as part of the agreement.

The third area of difference is her attitude towards economics, and business in particular. President Magufuli’s “bulldozer” style encompassed his approach to economic matters, including a no-nonsense stance on taxation and an aggressive posture towards the business interests of those he perceived as working against him. Foreign investors complained that the business environment had become more difficult. The economic effects of these positions are hard to assess with confidence, particularly given how politicised official economic data became under his Presidency – to the point where the IMF and World Bank pointedly stopped trusting official figures. Nevertheless, the effects are widely perceived to have included both a tightening of economic conditions and an increase in tax revenues.

President Hassan, in contrast, has made overtures to investors and business leaders. She has said that henceforth, tax collection would focus on compliance instead of coercion and intimidation. She has also promised that her government will actively listen to business leaders, so it can understand and address their complaints.

At the same time, the new President has attracted criticism for the way her government has turned its tax-raising attention to ordinary citizens – through the mobile money tax [see Economics and Business section in this issue], and through other measures that hit the poor hardest, such as refocussing building taxes on renters rather than landlords.

On domestic political matters, the extent to which President Hassan has diverged from President Magufuli’s heavy-handed style remains highly uncertain. Despite initial signs of a relaxation of restrictions on political activity and freedom of expression, more recently there have been growing concerns among pro-democracy groups that the new President’s approach may have more in common with her predecessor’s than previously thought.

Most obviously, the arrest and detention of opposition leader Freeman Mbowe on terrorism charges [see separate article] provoked such concerns. The extent to which the President was involved in the decision to charge Mbowe is unclear, but it is unlikely that it would have gone ahead without her approval. She has also spoken about the case, telling the BBC that the charges were not politically motivated and arguing that the country remains very democratic. She added that while the case is in court she is not at liberty to discuss it in detail, and advised that the judiciary should be left to do their job.

Similar concerns have been prompted by the suspension of two newspapers. In early September, Raia Mwema, a leading Swahili-language weekly, was suspended for 30 days, for “repeatedly publishing false information and deliberate incitement,” according to Gerson Msigwa, the government’s chief spokesperson. He cited three recent stories, including one about a gunman who killed four people in a rampage through a diplomatic quarter of Dar es Salaam. The article linked the gunman to ruling party Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM), according to Msigwa, adding that the article violated the 2016 Media Services Act.

The other suspension, introduced several weeks earlier, arguably hints at perhaps the greatest challenge President Hassan faces. In this case, the CCM-owned Uhuru newspaper was suspended for 14 days, after publishing a front page story under the headline: “I Don’t Have Intentions to Contest for Presidency in 2025 – Samia.”

A power struggle underway?
To suspend her own party’s newspaper, particularly given the subject of the offending article, suggests an internal struggle for control within CCM. President Magufuli had built up a party machinery filled with his supporters. Many of these are uncomfortable with some of the changes President Hassan has brought in. Others are more pragmatic, adjusting their stances to align with the new circumstances. Yet more are looking anxiously (or ambitiously) towards 2025, when the next Presidential elections are due.

The constitution is clear: President Hassan is entitled to run again for President in 2025. President Magufuli would not have been eligible to do so. (Unless he had brought in constitutional change to term limits, which had looked possible but which is now a moot point.) Thus any party figure with presidential aspirations faces the probable reality that those ambitions will have to be delayed by five more years. There are no doubt some prominent and influential figures and their supporters who are frustrated by this, some of whom may have wished to foster an expectation President Hassan should merely serve out President Magufuli’s second term and then step down in 2025.

Internal power struggles within CCM are nothing new. President Magufuli himself became leader of the party without a strong base of support – essentially a compromise candidate – and it took some time (and a strong will) before he was able to stifle the grumblings of internal dissent and shape the party in his own image. The popularity he gained with the public for his no-nonsense approach and vocal patriotism made it hard for opponents within the party to stand up to him, and he came down hard on anyone who expressed critical views.

Nevertheless, President Hassan faces an even more difficult challenge. Having become President on the basis of being Vice President at the time of her predecessor’s untimely death, and having essentially been hand-picked for Vice President by a tiny group of party insiders rather than by the membership at large, she starts with an even weaker power base than President Magufuli had. She is yet to prove herself with the public. And she has to contend with two large sets of party members who are pre-disposed to remain lukewarm towards her: die-hard Magufuli supporters and those with presidential ambitions of their own.

These challenges may also be showing up in President Hassan’s handling of other matters – such as Covid-19, or even the arrest of Mbowe. Would she be inclined to do things differently if she didn’t have internal party management matters to consider? Is she picking her battles carefully, choosing where to apply her limited political capital and where to let things go?

Even beyond politics, Covid, diplomacy and economics, there are other matters of significance where the President is yet to make her direction clear. Will she maintain President Magufuli’s hard-line approach to corruption and waste in government, or might we see the return of these problems that plagued the country in earlier periods? How will she handle the legacy of the mega-projects – the Stiegler’s Gorge dam, the purchase of aircraft for Air Tanzania – that may prove more complicated to manage than to introduce?

No-one is yet in a position to conclude with confidence what President Hassan’s style or focus will be. To date, this could perhaps be summarised as a gentler and more open version of Magufuli-ism. But isn’t a compassionate bulldozer a contradiction in terms?

by Ben Taylor

On July 21st, Freeman Mbowe, the leader of Tanzania’s largest opposition party Chadema, was arrested. The arrest took place at 2.30am at his hotel in Mwanza, hours before Mbowe was due to speak at a conference calling for constitutional reforms. Ten other party members, including some holding leadership positions, were also arrested.

Mbowe was charged five days later. He appeared before Kisutu Magistrate’s Court where he was charged with conspiracy and the provision of funds to commit terrorist acts under Tanzania’s Economic and Organized Crime Control Act and its Prevention of Terrorism Act, respectively. As these are terrorism-related charges, Mbowe does not have the right to apply for bail under Tanzania’s Criminal Procedure Act.

Prosecutors explained that the charges do not relate to the constitutional reform forum Chadema had planned to hold in Mwanza, but to alleged offences dating from 2020 in another part of the country.

“Moments like this take Tanzania a step backwards,” said James Mbatia, leader of the NCCR-Mageuzi opposition party. “The president’s wisdom is needed so that we move forward,” he added.

The international community were also alarmed at developments. “We have expressed our concern about the treatment and imprisonment of the opposition leader Mbowe,” said Victoria Nuland, US Under-Secretary for Political Affairs. Nuland was speaking at the end of a visit to Tanzania during which she met President Samia Suluhu Hassan and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Liberata Mulamula, as well as opposition leaders, part of a tour of several African countries.

Human rights group Amnesty International called on the Tanzania government to “substantiate the charges” against Mbowe or to release him. “His arrest and continued detention appears to be a tactic to silence critical voices as part of a growing crackdown against the political opposition,” they added.

On the occasion of his first court appearance, in early August, riot police broke up a demonstration by Mbowe supporters. They held banners “Mbowe is not a terrorist” and “Free Freeman Mbowe”.

“Freeman Mbowe, parliamentarian for 15 years, leader of the official opposition in parliament for 10 years and head of the largest legal opposition party for 17 years is not a terrorist,” said Tundu Lissu, Chadema’s deputy chairman.

Amid tight security, the trial at the high court in Dar-es-Salaam opened on August 31st. Most journalists were banned from the courtroom by police.

The government had warned foreign diplomats against turning up to the court to follow the case without notifying the foreign ministry, citing Covid-19 regulations and security concerns. Nevertheless, representatives from the British High Commission and US Embassy were present at the hearing, which was also attended by Chadema’s senior leaders.

Chadema have described the case as a throwback to the repressive era of President Magufuli, and said it represented the loss of hope that the new President would sweep away many of her predecessor’s restrictions on democratic political activity.

In a pre-trial hearing, Mbowe’s lawyers had argued that his initial arrest and detention had been unlawful, as he and his co-accused had been held for five days without being charged or being able to see his lawyers. “They told the court that they were tortured and humiliated and forced to record such statements,” said Mbowe’s lawyer, Peter Kibatala, after the hearing. He added that “These were not voluntary statements.” The court dismissed these objections and allowed that the trial should proceed.

Chadema has said prosecutors accuse Mbowe of conspiring to attack a public official, and of giving 600,000 Tanzanian shillings ($260/220 euros) towards blowing up petrol stations and public gatherings and cutting down trees to block roads.

STOP PRESS: As the trial began in early September, Regional Police Commander for Kinondoni (Dar es Salaam), Ramadhani Kingai, told the court that Freeman Mbowe had sought to recruit retired or expelled army commandos to carry out acts of terrorism in various part of Tanzania. He claimed that Mbowe and a group of others were planning to blow up fuel stations and markets and block vehicles on highways so that they could conduct robberies. He also claimed that the alleged criminal group planned to carry out these acts in the run up to the 2020 general election, with the intention of showing that Tanzania was ungovernable.

At the time of writing, the case has been adjourned to allow for a hearing on whether statements taken from the accused outside the 8-hour time limit for cautioned statements should be admissible.

by Ben Taylor

Among the many changes to Tanzania’s political landscape brought about by the change in top-level leadership, second only to Covid in prominence is perhaps the revival of debates about the country’s constitution. President Magufuli had made it clear that he had no intention of revisiting the topic, but perhaps President Samia Suluhu Hassan would see things differently. As a Zanzibari, she would certainly be expected to have a different perspective on the matter.

This was certainly the hope of both the two main opposition parties, ACT Wazalendo (with its weighty former-CUF contingent – see previous issues) and Chadema. Almost as soon as President Hassan was sworn into office, they began calling for a new constitution review process. The Chadema leader, Freeman Mbowe, publicly stated in May that his party would boycott the next general elections in 2025 unless a new constitution is in place.

“I have told Madam Samia that the constitution is not a personal issue but for the country and we will demand and fight for it with blood and sweat so that we get it before the General Election in 2025,” he said. It remains unclear what response she gave, but it certainly seemed to encourage the opposition parties that the change of President had opened a door to the possibility.

The most recent efforts to rewrite the country’s mother law had stalled in 2015, when time ran out on preparations for a referendum on a constitution drafted over the previous few years. President Kikwete’s second term of office came to an end in November of 2015, and President Magufuli saw no reason to move forward with what had become a very controversial matter, so the “proposed constitution” has never been put to a public vote. Nor was the “Warioba draft”, prepared by the Constitutional Review Commission under the leadership of former Prime Minister Joseph Warioba.

The two competing versions represent the controversy in the case. The Warioba draft proposed a substantive change to the relationship between Zanzibar and the rest of the country, with a “three government structure” comprising governments of Zanzibar, mainland Tanzania, and the United Republic. This was popular with the public on Zanzibar, including many CCM members and supporters, and with all the main opposition parties. Under President Kikwete’s guidance, however, this version was substantially edited late in the process by members of the CCM-dominated Constituent Assembly. The redrafting replaced the three government structure with something much more similar to the current two-government arrangements, motivated by concerns that the three-government approach was a ruse to split the union. It was this edited version that was set to be put to a public referendum in 2015, with results that looked set to be too close to predict.

The relationship between Zanzibar and mainland Tanzania is not the only issue prompting opposition parties to call for change. Chadema and ACT Wazalendo would each like to see changes that trim the powers of the Presidency, provide a strong and independent foundation for key bodies such as the National Electoral Commission and the judiciary, and strengthen protections for freedom of expression, freedom of assembly and freedom of association.

Nevertheless, the two competing visions for the country’s future governance, as represented by the two draft constitutions, present a serious sticking point for restarting discussions: which version should be brought back to the table? Positions on the two drafts have been deeply entrenched, and finding a way forward that allows all parties to sit together and consolidate them will not be easy.

“The President should own the process and pick a team of experts who will harmonize issues from the Second Draft Constitution and those in the Proposed Constitution,” according to Deus Kibamba of the Tanzania Constitution Forum, a civil society group.

Nor will it be easy to reach agreement that such a process should even be attempted. CCM secretary of Ideology and Publicity Shaka Hamdu Shaka, said in June that constitutional matters were not the party’s priority, that instead the ruling party was focused on national development.

President Samia Suluhu Hassan made her views on the matter known on June 28, arguing that the issue should wait so that she could have more time to guide the country to a full economic recovery from the Coronavirus pandemic. She used the term “chokochoko” (provocations) to describe the calls.

Warioba had thoughts on this: “The President has asked to be given more time, it is true, I agree, but until when? I think it is upon leaders themselves to agree on when the process of a new constitution should continue.” He suggested a referendum could be held concurrently with local government elections scheduled for late 2024.

“My advice is that these leaders should meet not to confront one another, but to have discussions on the problems facing the country: on how we deal with the Coronavirus, on a new constitution, on how we can boost our economy,” he suggested.

by Ben Taylor

The UK Minister for Africa, James Duddridge, met and held talks with President Samia Suluhu Hassan and Foreign Minister Liberata Mulamula on a visit to Tanzania at the start of June. The Minister also travelled to Zanzibar to meet with President Hussein Mwinyi and First Vice-President Othman Masoud Sharif, to discuss the Government of National Unity and the progress being made on political reconciliation.

In a meeting with the Minister for Industry and Trade, Kitila Mkumbo, and Minister for Investment, Geoffrey Mwambe, Mr Duddridge discussed the potential for increased UK investment in Tanzania and sought reassurances that improvements to Tanzania’s business environment would be implemented.

Mr Duddridge also visited sites where UK aid has delivered improvements to schools and hospitals.

Speaking at the end of the visit, Duddridge said he was “pleased that my first visit to Tanzania since the inauguration of President Samia Suluhu Hassan has been productive and mutually beneficial. I welcomed the President’s commitments on international cooperation, working with the business sector and seeking advice from Tanzanian experts on COVID-19 and I encouraged decisive action to tackle the effects of the pandemic in Tanzania. I look forward to engaging further as these areas progress.”

British High Commissioner to Tanzania, David Concar said “the visit of a UK Minister to Zanzibar after many years to assess progress in the unity government is an important reminder of the rich historic relationship between the UK and the islands, and demonstrates the UK’s desire to see sustained progress towards an inclusive, representative Zanzibar governed for all.”