CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM

by Enos Bukuku

Will Tanzania get a new constitution? Referendum postponed
In January I wrote about the opposition challenge to the proposed constitution. By “opposition” I was referring to the informal alliance of opposition party members who call themselves Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi (usually translated as the Coalition of Defenders of the People’s Constitution), better known by the acronym “UKAWA”. It looks likely that UKAWA will play a pivotal role in the upcoming elec­tions, using its dissatisfaction with the constitution making process as a springboard to challenging the government on much broader issues.

The referendum on whether to adopt the draft constitution had been scheduled to take place on 30 April 2015. Cynics suggested that the reason for the referendum to be pushed through quickly was so that the government could take the credit for a new constitution before the general elections and to avoid the embarrassment of its opponents convincing the public to vote against it.

In the event, the National Election Committee (NEC) eventually bowed to the inevitable and announced that the biometric voter registration process would not be complete in time and that the referendum would be postponed. This was confirmed by the government, with a future date “to be announced later”. It now looks a strong possibility that the referendum will not take place before the General Election.

Pressure had been mounting on the government for several months, with calls not only from UKAWA and the NEC, but also from religious leaders. This is not the first time that religious organisations have entered the debate, which recently prompted President Kikwete to criticise some of those leaders who called for voters to vote against the adoption of the proposed constitution. It must be worrying for CCM to see the opposition parties join together against it, apparently with the support of influential religious figures, in an attempt to undermine both the constitution and the ruling party.

One undeniable truth is that this process has created a considerable atmosphere of mistrust of the government. This mistrust has manifested itself as serious doubts about this government-endorsed document, which was supposed to herald a new era for Tanzania. For Tanzania to receive a new constitution, that trust must be restored very quickly.

ENERGY SCANDAL CLAIMS TWO SENIOR POLITICIANS

by Ben Taylor

The CAG report dominated front pages on Nov 27th (millardayo.com)

The CAG report dominated front pages on Nov 27th (millardayo.com)

For a week in November, the attention of Tanzania’s political scene was diverted away from the constitution and the 2015 elections and onto yet another energy sector corruption scandal – the IPTL Escrow case. The long-awaited report of the Controller and Auditor General (CAG) into the case was presented to the Parliamentary Accounts Committee (PAC) which in turn reported the key findings back to parliament.

That the report was presented at all was a triumph for parliamentary procedure and for a few determined MPs, including the Speaker, Anna Makinda, who resisted reported attempts by the judiciary, the Prime Minister and others to block the debate.

The scandal saw more than £116m taken from an escrow account at the Bank of Tanzania and transferred to offshore accounts held by private businessmen and government officials, according to Zitto Kabwe, the firebrand opposition (Chadema) MP and PAC chair. Kabwe presented the report to parliament together with the PAC deputy chair, Deo Filikunjombe (CCM).

The escrow account was opened in 2006, following a disagreement over charges to be paid by Tanesco, the national energy utility, to IPTL for emergency power generation. Tanesco was to deposit money in the account until such a time as the disagreement over charges could be resolved.

The ownership of IPTL has since changed hands, and a Tanzania-born Kenyan businessman, Harbinder Singh Sethi, now claims to be the legitimate owner of the firm, and that the funds in the escrow account were rightly his.

The case hinges principally on two issues: who is the rightful owner of IPTL, and did any or all of the money in the escrow account belong to the government and/or Tanesco?

The Parliamentary Accounts Committee said that irregularities in the sale of IPTL to Sethi’s company, Pan-African Power Solution (PAP) meant he was not the proper owner of the firm. Citing the support of the Controller and Auditor General, the Director General of the Prevention and Combatting of Corruption Bureau (PCCB) and the Commissioner of the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA), the committee argued that most of (or all) the funds in the escrow account were the rightful property of Tanesco.

Attorney General Frederick Werema, Minister of Energy and Minerals Professor Sospeter Muhongo, Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda and later President Kikwete all disagreed, arguing that Sethi was the owner of IPTL, and that the escrow account funds were his.

The case has already brought a heavy financial toll to Tanzania. In addi­tion to the money allegedly stolen from the public purse, the UK and eleven other international donors have suspended $490m in general budget support for the current financial year, citing the slow pace of investigations into the case. More recently, the Millennium Challenge Corporation, a US aid agency, indicated that they were monitoring developments closely and warned that their decision on a new fund­ing agreement – potentially several hundred million dollars – would depend on the Tanzanian government acting swiftly and decisively to combat corruption.

In presenting his committee’s report, Kabwe drew both shock and laughter as he explained that the Director General of PCCB had confirmed that people had collected funds in cash from the Mkombozi and Stanbic bank branches in plastic carrier bags, cardboard boxes, and sisal gunny sacks. As much as Tshs 73.5bn ($45m) was reportedly withdrawn on a single day in January 2014.

In his response to the parliamentary debate and resolutions, delayed by his health condition, President Kikwete spared the Minster of Energy and Minerals, Prof Muhongo, though parliament had called for his sacking. Instead, the President said that he has formed a team to investigate the Minister, and will make a decision once the team has reported back to him.

Prime Minister Pinda also survived when parliament revised the initial recommendation of the PAC that he should step aside.

In December the scandal claimed two senior scalps. Attorney General Werema, resigned on 17 December, though he denied any wrongdoing and said he was stepping down because his legal advice had been misunderstood. A few days later, President Kikwete sacked the Minster of Lands, Housing and Human Development Anna Tibaijuka for accepting a $1m payment from a Tanzanian businessman James Rugemalira, linked to the case.

Rugemalira had sold his 30% stake in IPTL to Sethi for $75m, and is alleged to have then transferred significant money into accounts held by a long list of public figures, including $1m to Mrs Tibaijuka. She does not deny receiving this amount, but claims that she was merely channelling the money onwards to a school. Other reported beneficiaries of Rugemalira’s generosity were senior political figures such as former Attorney General and veteran of the BAE-radar scandal, Andrew Chenge, two former Ministers of Energy and Minerals, William Ngeleja and Daniel Yona, and board members and employees of Tanesco, the Tanzania Revenue Authority, the Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC) and the Registration, Insolvency and Trusteeship Agency (RITA), as well as two judges and two bishops.

The political impact of the scandal, particularly in terms of the forthcoming elections may be significant. Pinda, a leading candidate for the CCM presidential nomination, has been weakened in the public eye. Anna Tibaijuka is no longer a viable candidate. The Speaker, Anna Makinda, an outside possibility for the nomination, surprised many with her strong handling of the affair – standing up to powerful figures, protecting parliamentary independence, and chairing heated discussions with considerable dexterity.

Other leading potential CCM candidates for the presidency did their best to stay out of the fray. Edward Lowassa and Bernard Membe were notably quiet, in public at least, and January Makamba spoke only in general terms that corruption should not be tolerated.

Though Chadema (aside from their renegade member, Zitto Kabwe,) was late to exploit the case, the party is likely to pick up some votes from the affair, simply because it makes CCM look bad.

Beyond the presidential race, several MPs’ reputations were enhanced. David Kafulila (NCCR-Mageuzi) earned plaudits for his long-standing campaign to bring this case to public attention. Zitto Kabwe’s forensic skill and determined handling of the PAC has been noted, and there are signs of a possible thawing of his previously frosty relations with his Chadema party leaders. Deputy PAC chair Deo Filikunjombe (CCM), was visibly nervous in presenting the report, and spoke later of his discomfort in calling for the resignation of a Prime Minister who was seated just a few feet away. Though his public reputation has been enhanced, he has lost popularity with some senior party figures, and may therefore face a difficult re-selection process in his Ludewa constituency.

Anti-corruption investigators continue to look into the case, and promise prosecutions where appropriate. Despite the pressure being exerted by donors, this may or may not happen. Though two senior government figures have lost their jobs, the suspicion remains that many others – including senior figures within State House – have got off lightly.

In November the Executive Director of Tanzania Legal and Human Rights Centre Dr Hellen Kijo-Bisimba said President Kikwete failed to take a bold decision on the scandal and in turn acted “like an advocate of Pan African Power Solution.” Even Zitto Kabwe showed little appetite to take the matter further. “As Parliament we passed the resolutions by consensus, patriotism and avoiding being unfair to anyone. Parliament did its work ….and I’m leaving this matter to wananchi, they will make their own judgement,” he said.

The leader of opposition and chairperson of Chadema Mr Freeman Mbowe said by failing to sack the architects of the scandal the President showed the country that he is part of the wider corruption problem. “Anna Tibaijuka was but a branch of the scandal, so she was used as a scapegoat, while [those who] orchestrated the whole thing are yet to be touched,” he said.

A political science professor from Ruaha University College, Gaudence Mpangala, said the President did not arrive at decisions that were awaited by many in the country. “By saying that the escrow monies belong to IPTL, the President blew the whole thing away and that is very wrong,” he said.

TANZANIA & EXTRACTIVES ­- ANOTHER TWIST?

by Alan R. Roe
(This is a summary of a talk to the Britain-Tanzanian Society, November 2014)

In common with Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Sierra Leone and Uganda, Tanzania will soon enter the ranks of oil and gas producing countries. Tanzania’s discoveries are mainly off-shore in the Indian Ocean and dominated by gas rather than oil. These discoveries are large, and have excited expectations of greatly improved economic growth and incomes and of a windfall for the Tanzanian budget. The government recognises the need to manage expectations about what all this may mean.

The resurgence of gold and diamond production after 1999 was associ­ated with the first real signs of structural change in the economy since independence. Specifically, the turn of the millennium saw the longest sustained period of per capita income growth (1999-2014) since 1950 (fig.1), Tanzania as one of the top non-oil countries in Africa in terms of the volumes of foreign direct investment (FDI), the rapid rise of gold exports which quickly overtook traditional agriculture exports as a source of foreign exchange earnings (fig. 2), and a significant increase in government revenues from mining to $385 million (7% of all tax revenues) by 2012.

fig(1) Per Capita Income Growth: 1950 to 2007 (Angus Maddison and the University of Groningen)

fig(1) Per Capita Income Growth: 1950 to 2007 (Angus Maddison and the University of Groningen)

fig(2) The Growth of Exports: 1999 to 2008 (Bank of Tanzania)

fig(2) The Growth of Exports: 1999 to 2008 (Bank of Tanzania)

There is considerable controversy in Tanzania over many aspects of mining, as the windfall associated with gold and diamonds has not been managed in a way that might have yielded optimum benefits both to the nation and to the affected communities around Mwanza and Shinyanga. But the mining boom has certainly given the authorities significant experience of the issues associated with managing natural resources wealth.

How will the new gas finds change the situation?
The gas discoveries so far are on a scale far larger than anything ever seen in gold and diamond mining. Early estimates from just one of the 20 or more major companies currently licensed to explore for oil and gas, suggests that FDI from their project alone could top $5 billion in the peak year of construction some 5-6 years from now. This is some five times larger than the maximum annual FDI seen in the years of the gold resurgence.

In the short term (to end-2016) there seems certain to be some significant gains in Tanzania’s capability for electric power generation fuelled by the early stage on-shore gas at Mnazi Bay for which much of the com­mercial contracting has already been finalised.
In the longer term (after 2021) there are expectations of large gas exports in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with a variety of domestic uses in addition to electric power generation.

Short-term prospects

fig(3) Map of new 36” diameter pipeline (Wentworth)

fig(3) Map of new 36” diameter pipeline (Wentworth)

In the past three months Wentworth Resources of Canada, working with Maurel and Prom (a large French com­pany – the operator) and the state-owned Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC), have signed a gas sales agreement (GSA) with the government. This provides for the deliv­ery of up to 80 mil­lion cubic feet per day (mmscf/d) to the new Chinese-built Mnazi Bay pipeline to Dar beginning in 2015. This pipeline is much longer than the existing pipe­line from Songa Songa which currently delivers the bulk of Tanzania’s existing gas production (fig 3). By 2016 the Wentworth GSA provides for the delivery of up to 130mmscf/d to the new pipeline.

This development is highly significant. First, it will help to justify and partially cover the $1.2 billion costs of the new pipeline, which will have a large capacity (around 750mmscf/d).
Second, the GSA involves a gas selling price at Mtwara of $3 per million cubic feet (mcf), allowing TPDC to sell that gas to Tanesco in Dar at around $5. This should allow Tanesco to generate power at nearer 12 cents/kilowatt hour rather than current cost of around 35 cents using diesel, jet fuel etc. With Tanesco currently selling power at around 16 cents/kwh, the huge government subsidy to Tanesco (estimated at TSh 353 billion in 2013/14) should be significantly reduced.

The new gas will also more than double the volumes of gas currently available for power generation which could contribute significantly to attaining the Tanzanian “Big Results” target of 5 million more people with access to electricity.

Longer-term prospects
The new gas situation will also create new jobs and higher income for some local populations, new investment opportunities such as the integrated cement plant in Mtwara (to supply gas companies), and a welcome albeit small boost to government revenues. In the longer term the scale of the known and likely discoveries will be focused much more on the export of gas – processed into LNG.

The Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) already signed with gov­ernment anticipate that at least 5% of total production will be provided to the domestic market, which means up to 95% will be exported. Even a 5% share of a huge volume of gas will provide many opportunities to expand domestic power generation and open up petro-chemical indus­tries such as fertiliser production.

Based on data from three of the concession blocks in the Indian Ocean (Blocks 1, 3 and 4, operated by the UK BG Group in partnership with Ophir Energy and the TPDC), the broad orders of magnitude of the likely impacts in Tanzania from around 2021 onwards are likely to include:

• Between $3 and $5 billion of new export earnings from sales of LNG
to China and other East Asian countries by about the fourth year of production (circa 2025 depending on when final decisions are taken). Tanzania’s total exports in 2012/13 were $5.5 billion.
• An early addition to revenues (taxes, royalties plus production share)
equivalent to just under 3% of GDP – moving towards $2 billion per annum. This compares with Tanzania’s present total grant receipts from aid donors of around 3.3% of GDP and a budget deficit of 5%. It is several times more than the revenues currently received from gold and diamond mining.
• The creation of several thousand new jobs in the 4-5 years of project
construction, falling to several hundred new jobs in the years of regular production.
These potentially transformational orders of magnitudes are based on the likely outputs from only three concession blocks. At least another eight concession blocks in the Indian Ocean have exploration underway – Statoil of Norway, Ophir, Shell and Petrobras of Brazil (see TA 102 for a map of the concessions, and article below by Roger Nellist for information on latest discoveries).

Challenges and dangers
Exploitation of Tanzania’s natural gas presents a wide range of possible threats as well as substantial new opportunities. Several areas of policy need to be very well-managed over the next few years if the Tanzanian people are to obtain a real benefit. The government is well aware of the main issues and its Natural Gas Policy presented in 2013 contains ideas on most of these.

There are still numerous difficult technical problems to solve in extracting gas from the Indian Ocean under 1,400 metres of water and a further 2,000 metres of variable sea bed strata. There is no guarantee that the concessionaires will be able to solve these problems at an acceptable cost.
There is still a question mark over whether the companies will be able justify the huge upstream and mid-stream investments that are required given the (changing) expectations of the global market e.g. the recent large falls in oil prices. One concessionaire alone is anticipating a full investment cost of well over $20 billion.

Can the government and TPDC finance the large infrastructure and investments needed to ensure the delivery and effective usage of the available gas? Who will coordinate the efforts of the different govern­mental players and prospective investors?

Will the global demand and supply situation remain favourable to exploiting the Tanzanian resources over the very long period (circa 30 years of more) anticipated by the off-shore projects?
A communications strategy is needed immediately to manage expec­tations in government, in the affected local communities and in the country more generally. The 2013 Gas Policy refers directly to this matter, but the government is handicapped by the fog of ignorance (and rumours) about the true magnitudes and timing of benefits.

Public sector capacity
Much will need to be done to develop skills in both the private and public sectors. Although few direct jobs will be created there are large opportunities for indirect job creation through linkages to the rest of the economy. The problem is that most of the jobs become in the construction phase. To be filled by Tanzanian workers, a large skills training programme needs to start very early – as indeed it has but on a relatively small scale.

Tanzania now has some effective and well qualified civil servants and specialists. But the depth of the skill base is often thin, for example in the areas of contract negotiation, regulation of the sector, contract man­agement, and management of the fiscal regime.

Attention needs to be given to the strengthening of a National Oil and Gas Company (NOC) based on the present TPDC – building its financing, its specific roles, its capacities. The division of roles between government and the NOC has been a source of much difficulty in other countries.

The government needs to exercise caution on the macroeconomic fundamentals to avoid exchange rate appreciation and damage to tradi­tional export activities – the Dutch Disease problem.

Should Tanzania establish a Sovereign Wealth Fund? What stabiliza­tion arrangements, if any, should be set up to guard against the future volatility of oil and gas prices and to ensure that other sectors are not left behind?

The emphasis must lie in building human capacity in all sectors with transferable skills from oil and gas. Tanzania is fortunate to discover gas now. They can learn lessons from other countries on the importance of transparency and good governance. Above all, how to protect this unique opportunity from political opportunism and mismanagement, especially with an election in 2015.

KIKWETE TREATED FOR PROSTATE CANCER

On 8 November, Tanzanian President Kikwete underwent a successful operation to remove a cancerous prostate. The operation was conducted at the Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore, USA. The President remained in the US for three weeks for recuperation before returning to Tanzania.

President Kikwete thanked all Tanzanians for praying for him and commended the media for conveying the right message away from distortion. “In September, last year, I went for a medical check-up and doctors diagnosed me with prostate cancer. They told me that since it was still at a manageable level, an operation could remove it completely and stop it from spreading to other parts of the body. Before going for the operation, I wanted to ‘put the house in order’”, he added, explaining that he had been waiting for the Constituent Assembly to complete preparation of the proposed new Constitution.
“Although I looked normal and continued with my duties, the illness remained a source of ‘inward misery.’ It took eight months to inform my wife but she is great and encouraged me to undergo treatment. I am glad am cancer free. Doctors said that after such an operation a patient could survive for 30 years depending on one’s age,” he said.

President Kikwete explained that since the 1990s when he served as the minister for energy and minerals, he cultivated the culture of undergoing regular medical check-up. He appealed to ‘wananchi’ to emulate that way of life.

AGRICULTURAL MARKETING-MAKE OR BREAK?

by Andrew Coulson

There are two iron laws of agriculture:
1.If there is no market for a crop, don’t grow more than you can store and eat.
The second makes the same point from a national perspective:
2.If you are trying to promote expansion of an agricultural product, then you will fail if the marketing arrangements do not work.

Farms – large or small – are businesses. Farmers make choices, about what crops to plant, how much of each, when to plant them, where, when to weed and how often, whether to use inputs such as fertilizers and insecticides, and so on.

Small farmers need money – for school uniforms and school fees, agri­cultural tools, food items that they cannot produce themselves, medical costs, clothes and shoes, cooking utensils – and if at all possible, cement and wood for houses, bicycles, mobile phones, lamps, bus fares, and all that we can imagine that makes a better life. They are therefore integrated into national, and indeed international, economies. It is misleading to call them peasants, or to imply that they can be entirely self-sufficient. They cannot exist if they are paid very little, paid late, or not paid at all.
Large farms are also businesses, and face many of the same risks as small farmers: failures of the rains, attacks by insects, birds or animals, plant diseases, and unexpectedly low prices.

Until the 1970s many farmers were organised in cooperatives, which purchased their crops and took responsibility for repaying credit. Much of what was produced was sold by marketing boards. But by the time of liberalisation in the 1990s most of these arrangements had broken down and agricultural marketing was left almost entirely to the private sector. The result has been a series of disasters so bad that farmers only continue growing crops when they have no other plausible alternative.

For cotton, businessmen purchased ginneries and employed buyers to purchase the crop from the farmers. Farmers had a choice of where to sell. If one buyer rejected their cotton because of poor quality they could sell to another. If they took credit from one buyer, they could sell their cotton to another and avoid paying back the credit. Buyers travelled over large areas to buy cotton – and one consequence was that the varieties which had been specially bred for the North and the South of the cotton area got mixed up. The position now is that many farm­ers are adulterating their cotton with sand, water, or even hygroscopic chemicals – and Tanzanian cotton sells at a discount on world markets when once it sold at a premium. To get back to a position where qual­ity could be achieved, the government promoted “contract farming”, where farmers contract with a single buyer who also supplies credit for inputs; in the central cotton areas this was opposed and ultimately sabotaged by small ginners who did not have access to the capital to provide credit to farmers.

The position with coffee is much the same. A sharp decline in quality, a failure to manage credit, and low prices.

Cashew nut farmers produced a bumper crop in 2011/12. The local pro­cessing factories were swamped. The buyers had insufficient money to buy it all in the short window when Tanzanian cashew nuts can be sold to India, before the Indian crop is harvested. So they paid for the cashew nuts with IOUs. Many of those farmers are still waiting to be paid.

Rice production has been one of the success stories. But just when farmers were doing well, the Bank of Tanzania approved imports of cheap rice which depressed the prices, and many farmers who have taken credit to buy fertilizers or sprays could not pay back their loans.

Maize is another success story, with record harvests in the Southern Highlands, Songea and Sumbawanga. According to the Citizen on 1 December, the surplus is more than 2 million tonnes, although the National Food Reserve Agency will only purchase 200,000 tonnes. There are good harvests in Malawi, Zambia and parts of Congo, so no easy export markets. Many farmers may not get paid. Some will try and store their maize, but without modern stores much of it will succumb to post-harvest insects, especially the large grain borer or Skanya bora, unofficially named after the lorries which transported food aid in the early 1980s.

One of the main planks of “Big Results Now”, the most recent govern­ment planning strategy, is the “Warehouse Receipt Schemes” where a farmer takes the crop to a store and, provided the crop is of good quality, he or she can be paid in cash or in credit. If the latter, and crop prices rise later in the season, what they have sold will be given the higher value – and payment to the farmers may be made either in cash or in the form of seeds or fertilizers for next years’ crops. This is fine in principle, not so easy in practice, where corruption can creep in. The system fails altogether if the warehouses are full or the manager does not have sufficient cash.

There are also problems with the marketing of sugar, where unexpected and perhaps corrupt imports have discouraged new local projects to increase production.

Tanzania should be celebrating its small farmers (who have shown that they can produce surpluses of cashew nuts, maize and rice), not making them angry by not buying what they have produced.

Crop marketing is a specialist skill. It is much more than an admin­istrative task. One consequence of liberalisation has been the loss of the expertise and contacts learnt in the days of the marketing boards. Since most crops are sold without the crops themselves being visible, it requires good contacts and above all trust, which can only be built up between individuals, and over time. Moreover, to achieve good quality, the marketing must be regulated: buyers who accept low quality must be driven out of the market, along with buyers who buy from farmers who have contracted to sell to someone else. The banks must know the reliable buyers, and lend them sufficient money to purchase the crops. Farmers unable to sell their crops on time and for fair prices cannot be blamed if they choose not to grow those crops in the future.

CONSTITUTION

by Enos Bukuku

Opposition challenge to proposed new constitution
The Constitutional Assembly (CA) was disbanded in October 2014 after delivering the final draft of the proposed Constitution to the President, who has invited the public to endorse the document in a referendum to be held in April 2015.

Despite the heated disputes which have taken place among the political factions within the CA, the government announced that the required two-thirds majority for approval of the draft by the CA had been met. However, many members of the opposition have disputed this. A CA member from Zanzibar, Haji Ambar Khamis, claimed that even though his name was listed as approving the draft, he had not done so, and he reportedly collapsed whilst explaining himself. Four opposition parties (Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA), the Civic United Front, the National League for Democracy and the National Convention for Construction and Reform) have decided to join forces against the government and mount a joint challenge to the draft constitution on the grounds that the government failed to follow the legal procedures during the vote in parliament.

There is still some debate as to whether the new constitution can be considered a success even if it survives this possible legal challenge and is adopted after the referendum.

Those in one camp will say that this draft improves upon the current constitution by addressing the needs of all Tanzanians by including the nation’s children, women, the disabled and other minority groups. Changes to the constitution have been warmly welcomed by Tanzania’s Gender Coalition Group who have stated that approximately 90% of their proposals for reform to women’s rights have been adopted by the CA. One of the proposals which has received praise is for women to have equal land ownership rights which “gives every woman the right to obtain, own, use, develop and manage land under the same rules which are applicable to men”; the ability to confer citizenship to their children; better employment rights; and more advantageous representation in parliament.

The draft also seeks to redress the issue of exploitation of children by clarifying the definition of child as being a person under 18 years of age, which is relevant in combating child marriages. It also guarantees a right to primary education to every Tanzanian child. Minority ethnic groups, such as the Hadzabe and Akiye, are given further protection by the draft.

However, the proposed constitution has removed notable sections from the previous draft, including new checks and balances on presidential power, and has watered down sections proposed by Warioba’s Constitutional Review Commission (CRC). In particular, the proposal to establish a three-government structure – Zanzibar, Mainland, Union – is replaced with a two government structure that closely resembles the current system.

Whilst there was an attempt to include a provision for dual nationality in the final draft, unfortunately for many of the Tanzanian diaspora overseas, this was eventually omitted. Instead, by way of a compromise, a “special status” will be given to former Tanzanian citizens.
Those of the “this-new-constitution-won’t-change-a-thing” camp argue that the whole lengthy process has been a monumental waste of time, money and ultimately, dominated by the government. CCM has been accused of bullying and “hi-jacking” the process.

The drafting of a new constitution was supposed to be a civilised exercise in cross-party consultation, and all parties were supposed to set aside their differences for the greater good and for the benefit of generations of Tanzanians to come. This ideal was once again challenged on 2 November 2014, when a youth group of CCM supporters disrupted a meeting convened by the Mwalimu Nyerere Foundation to hear the Constitutional Review Commission (CRC) members, and in particular CRC chairman, retired Judge Warioba. An eagerly anticipated speech by a well-respected politician, quickly turned into an ugly scene more suited to a Hollywood action film. It was reported that “fists and chairs were flung into the air, camera equipment destroyed and journalists beaten up”.

It now remains for the public to voice its opinion as to whether the Constitution should be adopted. For the new constitution to pass, majorities are needed in both parts of the union. CCM should have no trouble winning a majority on the mainland, but whether they can deliver the same on Zanzibar is more questionable.

POLITICS

by David Brewin

Elections approaching
It is now only about four months to the parliamentary elections in Britain which are going to be hotly contested. It is about ten months before the presidential and parliamentary elections in Tanzania which will also be hotly contested. And, surprisingly, in neither country are political experts sure what the results will be. All this contributes to a growing political fever, even though political parties in both countries have increasing difficulty in persuading people to vote.

The ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party
The largest and longest serving party in Tanzania, the CCM, with its great strength, particularly in rural areas, is still fairly confident about remaining in power for another five years. Its popularity rests on its stability and its preservation of peace and order unlike most neighbour­ing countries.
However, the unsatisfactory finalisation of the Constitution-making process (as explained by Enos Bukuku), the apparent government decision to ignore strong feelings in Zanzibar and say no to a third government, plus the increasing political tensions in parliament over demands for more transparency in the awarding of mining contracts (see Roger Nellist below) and the rising discontent about corruption (see Ben Taylor’s article on the ITPL scandal) must be causes of concern to many voters.

The opposition
The second largest party, CHADEMA, had great hopes of increasing its position substantially in the elections, but the attempts to expel their leading radical MP and anti-corruption campaigner, Zitto Kabwe, could have damaged its chances. CHADEMA’s leadership wants to get rid of Kabwe because of his reluctance to accept the party’s policies but Kabwe retains the powerful position of Chairman of the Public Accounts Committee of the National Assembly and thus remains of great interest to the media. He also attracts the support of many among the younger generation of potential voters.

Opinion poll

Mwananchi coverage of the opinion poll results (http://millardayo.com)

Mwananchi coverage of the opinion poll results
(http://millardayo.com)


An opinion poll by Twaweza in November showed no clear front runner. Former CCM Prime Minister Edward Lowassa had the support of just one in eight voters, 13%; current CCM Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda, who announced his decision to stand in a BBC interview in London, had 12%; with 11% favouring the leading opposition candidate, Wilbroad Slaa from CHADEMA – a candidate for the presidency in 2010.

But party loyalties remain strong. According to the poll, the ruling CCM party is supported by 47% of voters. Amongst the growing numbers of young voters under 35 years old, 44% claim CCM affiliation with 34% supporting CHADEMA.

There are plenty of other CCM aspirants for the presidency, all except one of whom will be eliminated at CCM selection conferences early in 2015. They include Foreign Affairs minister Bernard Membe (with 5% support), East African Cooperation minister Samuel Sitta (4%) and Works minister John Maghafuli (3%) plus Defence minister Shamsi Nahodha.

A rising star and one of the latest additions to the list of CCM presidential hopefuls is January Makamba, the Deputy Minister of Communications, Science and Technology and a CCM MP in Lushoto District. A close aide to President Kikwete for five years, at 40 years old he is much younger than most of the other aspirants.

He says that it is diffi­cult to see how those who have been in politics for 40 years, ‘who are steeped in the ways of a (for­mer) one-party state, a rigidly planned economy and con­trols on freedom’, can contend with the unique challenges of a rapidly changing country. Asked by the media what precisely he wanted to change, he said “Many things, but the first will be our mindset. It is important that Tanzanians believe that it is within their ability to achieve great things both individually and as a country….. We want to establish very high standards for public servants. There will be zero tolerance of corruption and bad government.”

If the CCM candidate selection process results in a stalemate, a possible compromise might be Chief Justice Augustine Ramadhani, from Zanzibar who is a practising Anglican Christian and might attract a following in both Zanzibar and the mainland of Tanzania.

“I don’t know”
The sagacious political commentator Elsie Eyakuze pointed out in The Citizen that in her view “by far the most interesting finding in the poll was that a full third of the respondents, when asked whom they would vote for, replied that they didn’t know”. She went on to say that “a significant portion of voters is willing to step away from Tanzania’s ‘strong-man formula of politics’ and consider alternatives such as better government!” She went on: “A grimmer interpretation could be that we have got ‘indecision paralysis’ because the options all look a bit unwelcome”. Eyakuze said that she hopes that the numbers of uncommitted voters will grow and grow. Unable to conceal her feminist views, she also pointed out that the most popular contenders in the elections “will all be men of a certain age. No one with a uterus or direct personal experience of the Twitterverse is going to get within sniffing distance of the office of President”.

Memorandum of Understanding
In a sensible move which will help the two smaller opposition parties to survive, a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has been signed between the two big opposition parties – CHADEMA on the mainland and CUF in Zanzibar and two small parties, NCCR-Mageuzi and the NLD, all of which have MPs in the National Assembly. Under the MOU the parties will field and support only one candidate (at all levels including the presidency) in the elections. This move should help in the survival of the two small parties and might even attract a few CCM candidates who are disappointed not to have been selected in the party’s candidate selection process.

The effect of the referendum
The referendum on the new constitution, according to present plans, will take place on 30 April 2015, six months before the presidential and parliamentary elections. It is difficult to forecast how this will affect the outcome of these elections. The Presidential Communication Directorate proposes to spend a large sum of money on the campaign for a “Yes” vote in the referendum and there will be a media blitz to persuade people to vote ‘Yes’. If they vote ‘No’ Tanzania could be in a constitutional crisis.

Zanzibar
Zanzibaris (one million people compared with some forty million on the mainland) tend to take elections very seriously and are likely to vote in large numbers in the constitutional referendum as well as in the elec­tions which will follow. But there have been rumblings of discontent about the way in which the constitution favoured by the CCM seems likely to be pushed through. Many Zanzibaris hoped that, if the alterna­tive three-party government had been accepted, Zanzibar would have a much greater influence in the future government of Tanzania.

There is also the future of the Government of National Unity between Zanzibar’s two main parties CCM and CUF to be decided. The coalition government, installed in 2010 following years of political violence, has succeeded in maintaining political peace in the Isles for five years. This could prove to be popular with many voters especially in view of the political turmoil which many of Tanzania’s neighbours have suffered since independence.

Biometric voting registration
Tanzania intends to prepare the way for the use of new electronic voter registration technology, using Biometric voters’ kits. The Treasury has made funds available for pilot schemes in Kawe, Katavi and Kilombero constituencies but there has been some delay because the relevant people have not yet been trained. The National Election Commission intends to train personnel from 169 districts in readiness for the nation­wide registration exercise.

FOREIGN RELATIONS

by David Brewin

Becoming more friendly
There are signs that Tanzania is changing its rather distant relationship with other members of the East African Union. During recent months it has allowed its citizens to move money across its borders. However, on environmental and natural resources management, Tanzania is holding back. It appears to have been doing its ‘homework’ more thoroughly than the other partner states. Before the signing of binding agreements on the use of Lake Victorian waters and other scarce water and pasture resources, Tanzania argued that a protocol on such issues, already ratified by Kenya and Uganda, contradicted the provisions on trading in minerals. Tanzania stressed that access to and the use of land and premises should be governed by national policies and laws and that the protocol included provisions on marketing and trading in minerals which should have been restricted to protection of the environment.

Tanzania also noted that tourism should be removed from the protocols as it would be better covered under another accord now being negoti­ated. The EAC Secretariat was instructed to study the issues raised by Tanzania.

Burundi-Tanzania border
The border between Tanzania and Burundi was originally demarcated in 1924 during the colonial period. But, over the years, some natural border references such as rivers have changed their courses or dried out. Sometimes officials have demarcated part of the border by just marking trees. Although the African Union has declared that states wanting to make changes should do so by 2017, the presidents of the two countries are reported to have met to reaffirm the border between their countries.

Pressure on human rights in Tanzania
The European Union has begun to step up its pressure on Tanzania to change its laws on human rights. The Head of the EU Delegation, Ambassador Filibert Sebregondi, has advised the Tanzanian govern­ment to increase the minimum age of marriage for girls from 15 to 18 years, eliminate polygamy and abolish the death penalty and corporal punishment in schools.

WORLD WAR I IN EAST AFRICA “WHO CARES ABOUT NATIVE CARRIERS?”

by Ben Taylor

On 8 August 1914, the Royal Navy bombarded the German wireless relay station in Dar es Salaam. War had broken out in Europe just days earlier, and already it had come to East Africa.

In the shadow of the horrors of western Europe, space in the popular memory for the East African theatre of the First World War is limited. Such room as there is tends to be dominated by Boys’ Own tales of derring-do, successes against the odds and heroic failures.

The madcap British scheme to gain naval supremacy on Lake Tanganyika is Exhibit A. Two 40 foot motorboats, HMS Mimi and HMS Toutou, were shipped out to South Africa and transported 3,000 miles by land (including being dragged for 146 miles through the jungle of the Belgian Congo) to reach the lake. It should never have succeeded, and yet it did, capturing one German vessel and sinking another before forc­ing the Germans to scuttle their 220-foot flagship Graf von Götzen (now the MV Liemba).

This inspired C.S. Forrester’s novel, The African Queen, a film of the same name starring Humphrey Bogart and Katherine Hepburn, and, more recently, Giles Foden’s book Mimi and Toutou Go Forth. Partly as a result, though the military significance of the Battle of Lake Tanganyika was negligible, the story became arguably the most well-known episode of the Great War in East Africa.

Or perhaps that accolade should go to the sinking of the German battle-cruiser SMS Konigsberg. Just before outbreak of war, the ship had given the British navy the slip from Dar es Salaam harbour. She frustrated the British in the Indian Ocean for well over a year, sinking ships including City of Winchester and HMS Pegasus, before eventually being cornered and sunk in the Rufiji Delta.

The Germans began the war with a well-trained force of some 5,000 men under the leadership of Lieutenant Colonel Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck. They launched an early attack over the border into British East Africa (now Kenya) to disrupt the Mombasa-Nairobi railway, capturing an area around Taveta and Tsavo. This was the only British territory anywhere worldwide to be occupied during the entire First World War. During one skirmish, a German sniper is said to have hidden inside a hollow baobab tree; locals still claim the tree to be “the most shot at tree during World War I.”

In November 1914, a British/ Indian Expeditionary Force launched a disastrous attack on the port of Tanga, the terminus of the strategically important Usambara railway to Moshi. There was an agreement that guaranteed the neutrality of Tanga, so the British gave the Germans 24-hours’ notice that the agreement was cancelled. Lettow-Vorbeck thus had time to bring reinforcements down the line from Moshi. When allied troops were landed, they struggled against a swarm of bees. The Germans faced similar problems, but they prevailed in what inevitably became known as the “Battle of the Bees”.

Guerrilla tactics and impossible logistics
These episodes have a place in the history of the Great War in East Africa. But they do not tell the full story – far from it – for this was a brutal war.

Schutztruppe in German East Africa - German Federal Archive Bild 134-C0265

Schutztruppe in German East Africa – German Federal Archive Bild 134-C0265

In contrast to the immobile trench warfare in western Europe, the war in East Africa was one of mobility and guerrilla tactics: brief battles and long marches. The allied troops launched an offensive in early 1916, after which Lettow-Vorbeck conducted a guerrilla war for two and a half years around the south of German East Africa (Tanzania), the northern part of Portuguese East Africa (Mozambique) and finally in Northern Rhodesia (Zambia).

Lettow-Vorbeck by 1916 had around 20,000 troops – mostly Africans with German officers – while the allied combatants numbered around 150,000, under the command of South African General Jan Smuts. Smuts’ troops were drawn from Britain, the British colonies in East, West and Central Africa, South Africa, India and the Belgian Congo. By the end of the war, the allied force was almost entirely African.

Troops and carriers would often walk twenty miles a day, every day for a month, exposed to tropical weather of intense heat and drenching rain. Two King’s African Rifles battalions marched 1,600 miles in seven months, in the process fording 29 large rivers and fighting 32 engagements. Much of this was done with virtually no rations, subsisting on what could be found locally. Disease killed more British troops than combat. On returning from the field, soldiers were described as “resembling the victims of famine.”

In the words of one South African quartermaster, the war “involved having to fight nature in a mood that very few have experienced and will scarcely believe.” Another stated that “there is no form of warfare that requires so much inherent pluck in the individual as bush fighting.” And an officer who had fought on the Western Front wrote: “what wouldn’t one give for the food alone in France, for the clothing and equipment, and for the climate, wet or fine”.

A Malawian veteran described the experience: “Think of lying on the ground where the hot sun is beating directly on your back; think of yourself buried in a hole with only your head and hands outside, holding a gun. Imagine yourself facing this situation for seven days, no food, no water, yet you don’t feel hungry; only death smelling all over the place. Listen to the sound from exploding bombs and machine guns, smoke all over and the vegetation burnt and of course deforested. Look at your relatives getting killed, crying and finally dead. These things we did, experienced and saw.” (Page, cited by Samson).

Supply chains for food, medicines and munitions were impossible to maintain. Historian Edward Paice describes the logistical challenge: “As the availability of livestock for transport proved incapable by mid­1916 of matching the depredations of disease, the onus fell on the only alternative – human porterage. The mathematics are sobering. … 16,500 carriers were required to transport a single ton of supplies – enough to feed 1,000 askaris and their camp-followers for one day – for the simple reason that 14,000 of them were needed to carry food for the column while 2,500 carried the food for the troops. … The troops required more than a million carriers to keep them in the field.”

The German troops largely abandoned efforts to maintain a supply chain, and instead appropriated crops and livestock without payment. They recruited some 300,000 carriers, again largely without payment.

The effect of all this on the civilian population was devastating. Agriculture became more and more difficult, leading, by 1917-18 to famine in much of East Africa.

Map of the Great War in East Africa based on that by Mehmet Berker, wikipedia

Map of the Great War in East Africa based on that by Mehmet Berker, wikipedia

And for what?
M’Inoti wa Tirikamu, a carrier from Meru, “wondered why white men hate each other so much. They looked so much like brothers. We asked ourselves: Do they fight for land, or for the power to rule, or is it because they are all white, or why?”

Odandayo Mukhenye Agweli, an askari of the King’s African Rifles had similar thoughts: “To this day, I still do not know why we fought the Germans and how the war began. Though we admired the European ways of fighting, we were still left wondering why so many people had to die. In our tribal wars, the number of the dead was never very big.”

There is no answer to these questions that can possibly justify the war. Lettow-Vorbeck saw the role of his army as a drain on allied resources – drawing men and weaponry away from more important battles in Europe. Though he evaded capture until the war had ended, at which point he surrendered in Northern Rhodesia, he never really drew significant manpower away from Europe. The allies fought the war mostly with African soldiers.

Historian Edward Paice sees the war in East Africa as “the final phase of the Scramble for Africa”, which “epitomised the vainglorious imperial ambitions which helped to trigger – and certainly prolonged – World War I”. The British gained a League of Nations Mandate over Tanganyika and the Belgians gained one for Rwanda and Burundi. But the war laid bare the human vulnerability of the white man as never before, and sowed seeds of a demand for independence. The First Pan-African Congress was held in Paris in 1919, to coincide with the Versailles Peace Conference. It called for Africa to be granted home rule, and for Africans to take part in governing their countries as fast as their development permits.

The real cost
In contrast to the (relative) glamour of a small British navy expeditionary force on Lake Tanganyika, the real story of the war in East Africa is far more brutal. The vast majority of war deaths were among carrier units – an estimated 95,000 on the allied side, probably well over 50,000 among the German carriers. Around one in eight of the adult male population of British East Africa – today’s Kenya – lost their lives either as askaris or carriers. And an estimated 300,000 civilians in German East Africa died as a direct result of the war and the 1917-18 famine. The official death toll among British combatant and support units was over 105,000 men. This equalled the number of American war deaths, and was almost double the numbers of Australian, Canadian or Indian troops who lost their lives during the war.

Disgracefully, however, the official death toll does not include carriers. According to Paice: “There were many British combatants in East Africa who paid tribute to the carriers on whom they were utterly dependent for survival … But when the mortality rate became common knowledge in Whitehall it was deemed a “bloody tale” best ignored, or even suppressed, as Britain sought colonial prizes in Africa at the Paris Peace Conference. As one colonial official put it, in particularly arresting terms: the conduct of the campaign “only stopped short of a scandal because the people who suffered the most were the carriers – and after all, who cares about native carriers?””

And yet, somehow, the worst was still to come. In September 1918, as the war was coming to an end, Spanish Flu reached sub-Saharan Africa. In British East Africa, probably as many as 200,000 died, nearly 10% of the total population of the country. In German East Africa, the death toll from Spanish Flu may have been as high as 20% of the population. “There came a darkness” is a much-repeated phrase in oral histories of the time. This was a war with an immense human cost: on the troops and on the carriers, and most of all, on the civilians.

Sources
Great War in Africa Association http://gweaa.com/

Edward Paice – How the Great War razed East Africa, Africa Research Institute http://www.africaresearchinstitute.org/publications/counterpoints/how-the-great-war-razed-east-africa/

Edward Paice – The Great War and the size of the butcher’s bill, The Africa Report
http://www.theafricareport.com/Columns/the-great-war-and-the-size-of-the-butchers-bill.html

Anne Samson – When two bulls fight
http://thesamsonsedhistorian.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/when-two-bulls-fight.pdf

Anne Samson – The numbers game: how many men fought in Africa?
http://thesamsonsedhistorian.wordpress.com/2014/06/13/the-numbers-game-how-many-men-fought-in-africa/

Wolfgang H Thome – Battlefield East Africa, 98 years and counting http://wolfganghthome.wordpress.com/2012/06/24/battlefield-east-africa/

World War I in Africa: What happened in Africa should not stay in Africa http://wwiafrica.tumblr.com/
Wikipedia – East African Campaign (World War I) https://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/East_African_Campaign_(World_War_I)
Wikipedia – Battle for Lake Tanganyika https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_ for_Lake_Tanganyika
Wikipedia – Battle of Tanga https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Tanga
Wikipedia – Schutztruppe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schutztruppe

POLITICS

by David Brewin

Yet another political party
As if Tanzania did not have enough political parties – there are twenty – there is now another one! This party, now going through the processes of official registration, bears the name; ‘The Alliance for Change and Transparency’ (ACT). It is believed that it has been set up by former members of the leading opposition party Chadema, which is the only party to have a chance of defeating the ruling CCM party in the 2015 elections. CCM has been in power for more than 50 years. ACT’s interim chairman said that the party would be guided by five principles – patriotism, equality, accountability, transparency and true democracy.

‘Traitors’ in Chadema
The main opposition party Chadema, which did well in the 2010 elections, is now being torn apart by internal dissension. According to The Citizen, a group of its members have written to the Registrar of Political Parties on alleged illegal amendments to the party’s constitution, and to the Controller and Auditor General requesting an audit of the party’s accounts. Others have apparently accused the party of removing illegally a section on term limits for presidential candidates in Chadema’s constitution which could have made the party’s two main leaders ineligible for leadership posts’.

Some observers think that these events are simply ‘business as usual’ in Tanzanian politics ahead of elections. Many of these members have defected before – mainly from CCM to Chadema or other smaller parties.

Potentially more damaging is the revolt of perhaps Chadema’s most ambitious and charismatic former Deputy Secretary General, Zitto Kabwe, MP for Kigoma. Kabwe has been virtually expelled, together with other party members in the Kigoma and Tabora regions. He played an important role (see TA 108) in establishing the party’s growth, especially among the younger generation.

CCM in trouble too
In the case of CCM, too many people want to put themselves forward as candidates for the presidency. But the party has severely frowned on this premature campaigning and is threatening severe penalties for those engaged in it.

All this is disheartening for those wanting Tanzania to develop into a democracy on the British model where governments change from time to time to reflect the changing views of the electorate. But most Tanzanians regard security and peace as their highest priorities. People continue to vote for CCM in large numbers because, unlike the situation in all its neighbours, Tanzania and CCM have given the country peace and a relatively good state of law and order.

Calm before the storm
The present political scene, and especially the highly contentious debate on the constitution, could lead to stormy times in the next few months. With most politicians installed in Dodoma for the deliberations of the Constituent Assembly, the ruling party and the opposition parties have begun to worry seriously about the forthcoming 2015 elections. For the first time, three main opposition parties have come together in a ‘Coalition of the Peoples Constitution’ (UKAWA). Unless the CCM drops its determination to continue with two governments, Chadema has threatened to boycott further meetings of the Constituent Assembly (see separate article).

Chadema goes much further in threatening not to take part in the 2015 elections under the current constitution because they claim (perhaps with some justification) that the present law favours the CCM. Chadema is concerned to ensure that the nearly six million new young voters will be correctly registered before the 2015 elections. It fears that the country could go to the polls before a new and fairer constitution comes into effect. It wants to see the setting up of a new; independent (of government) Electoral Commission which will not receive orders from any government authority and will have only members not belonging to any political party. It also points out that, although over 20 million people registered to vote in the last election in 2010, only 8.6 million actually voted.

Municipal elections are due in October this year but the present National Electoral Commission says that it cannot afford to update the register twice between the two elections and is seeking funds to buy a biometric system with which to update the permanent voter register for both the constitutional referendum and the 2015 general election (but not for the local elections this year).

Salim retires from the ring
Respected Tanzanian ‘elder statesman’ Salim Ahmed Salim, who is highly qualified for the presidency and reached the last stage of the presidential primary contest in 2005, has indicated that he no longer plans to stand for the presidency in 2015. He is believed to have been disillusioned by ‘political machinations’ at that time. He said that a good track record in leadership had not been enough to guarantee him victory. He is now 72 and says that younger blood should get the chance.

What next for President Kikwete?
President Kikwete has received much praise following his recent recognition by the African Leadership Magazine as Africa’s ‘Most impactful Leader of the year 2013’. In a rare interview with the press, the President told The East African that when he returned to private life he would look after his cattle and expand his pineapple farm.

The costs of democracy
The Tanzanian government has released the amount of subsidy it paid, during a recent four-year period, to the political parties. The figures correspond to the strength of the party representation in the National Assembly and the Zanzibar House of Representatives.
The amounts received were as follows:
CCM – $31.8 million
CHADEMA – $5.75 million
Civic United Front – $3.93 million
NCCR Mageuzi – $423,125
Tanzania Labour Party – $135,025
United Democratic Party – $20,625
APT Maendeleo – $ 6,875
Democratic Party – $2,062

The quality of financial control exercised by the parties left much to be desired and the Parliamentary Public Accounts Committee revealed that none of the political parties had kept proper financial records. Some parties did not even have bank accounts! Presumably, in these cases, the money went in to private accounts. The then chairman of the committee, Zitto Kabwe, was quoted in the East African as saying that political financing was the largest single driver of large-scale corruption. “It has taken four years for this audit to be implemented but it has been done and we have shown that fighting corruption must start with political institutions. A foundation has been built for cleaner politics.”

The immigration problem
As in Britain, immigration is becoming a major political issue in Tanzania. Legislation is being considered for possible action on foreign workers. President Kikwete has said that the number of foreign workers has reached an “alarmingly high figure” and that a bill will be introduced in Parliament in October to limit the number of work permits issued to foreigners, even if they come from other parts of East Africa. The other members of the East African Community seem likely to oppose this.