by David Brewin

Anti-corruption Summit

Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa (fourth right) with Prime Minister Cameron at Lancaster House May 2016 (Photo: Prime Minister’s Office)

Prime Minister David Cameron hosted a landmark international Anti-Corruption Summit in London in July which was attended by repre­sentatives from 40 countries. The UK Government had applauded the strong anti-corruption drive by the Tanzanian government and invited President Magufuli to participate. However, he had a prior engagement in Kampala at the inauguration of Ugandan President Museveni for another term in office. He sent a strong delegation to London led by Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa. Apparently only one other African country was invited to the summit: Nigeria.

The meeting agreed the first ever ‘Global Declaration Against Corruption’, and those present committed themselves to work together to expose, punish and drive it out. The Summit Communiqué stated that “no country is immune from corruption and governments needed to work together, and with partners from business and civil society to tackle it successfully”. The Communiqué included concrete actions aimed at exposing corruption; punishing the corrupt; supporting those who have suffered and driving it out. In addition to the Communiqué, countries made specific commitments in their country statements.

A new partnership between Tanzania and the UK’s National Crime Agency was launched to share expertise in audit, financial regulation and anti-corruption investigation. The UK Crown Prosecution Service agreed to assist in establishing Tanzania’s Special Anti-Corruption Division of the High Court. The UK Department for International Development agreed to support Tanzania’s institutions of accountabil­ity, including the PCCB and the National Audit Office.

Rwanda and Tanzania

PHOTO President Magufuli greets Rwandan President Paul Kagame as he arrives in Dar-es-Salaam on his maiden state visit (Photo: State House)

The visit by President Magufuli in May to Rwanda attracted large friendly crowds. At the same time a first ‘Tanzania-Rwanda Trade Forum’ was held in Kigali. It lasted for a week and has apparently sweetened relations between the two countries. It also gave Rwandan President Paul Kagame the chance to call on Tanzania to do something about the theft of Rwandan minerals being exported via Tanzania to the outside world. Dar es Salaam remains the main port for land-locked Rwanda, handling 70% of the country’s imports and over 90% of its exports.

Tanzania has installed cameras and boosted security at the port. Rwandan traders who were not allowed access to the container station now have complete access. Rwandan minerals are stored in a special parking zone and transporters are also allowed access to the yards where the containers are held. Minerals are escorted by armed security personnel from the time they arrive to the time they leave the port.

Human trafficking
According to a spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and East African Co-operation, the recent action amongst East African states to stop human trafficking of young women between 18 and 24 years old, who are seeking work in the Far East and Middle East, is not working properly.

After imposing restrictions on Tanzanian jobseekers at all Tanzanian International Airports, a syndicate of human traffickers began arrang­ing flights of young girls through Kenyan and Ugandan airports.

Between March and May, Tanzanian embassies in India, Malaysia and Oman made efforts to repatriate girls who had been forced to work in brothels.

In Britain, newly appointed Prime Minister Theresa May indicated that she wanted to give top priority to stopping human trafficking world­wide.

BREXIT
The result of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union caused sur­prise and some consternation in Tanzania. Bank of Tanzania’s Governor Benno Ndulu said that Brexit was likely to affect markets but it was a bit early to say and they were following developments very closely.

by David Brewin

After the independence of Zanzibar in 1964 and the subsequent violent revolution, a pattern was established under which the Zanzibar government was re-elected every five years. There were only two significant parties – the ruling CCM or ‘revolutionary party’ which was the majority party in the main and larger Unguja island and the only significant opposition party – the Civic United Front (CUF) which always won a few seats in the House of Representatives in Unguja but had overwhelming support in the other smaller island of Pemba.

Zanzibaris tend to take elections very seriously and the atmosphere during elections is usually intense. In each election a few incidents of violence were witnessed. The CCM won each time, usually with a very small majority and always with complaints from CUF that the CCM had rigged the elections.

After the elections of 2010, the two parties finally came together in a ‘Government of National Unity’ which reduced much of the interparty animosity.

However, during the largely peaceful 2015 elections, the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) suddenly stopped the counting of votes saying that there had been irregularities, especially in Pemba. Both sides claimed to have won [see TA 113 and 114].

The CCM then said that there would be another election on March 20th 2016. CUF decided to boycott this and were joined by a group of very small parties. CUF wanted the results of the previous (2015) election to be accepted.

In the second election the number of people voting was only about 15% of the electorate and CCM got an unprecedented 91% of the vote. Nine out of 14 small parties joined CUF’s boycott. Another new feature was that three smaller, previously hardly known parties, won seats and subsequently supported the CCM in the Zanzibar House of Representatives, enabling it to claim an element of legitimacy for a continuation of its rule.

CUF’s difficult position
CUF is now in a very difficult position as it has no MPs in the House of Representatives and the population of Zanzibar is only about 1.5 million compared with the massive 45 million on the mainland supported by a substantial army.­

The CUF delegation with Seif Sharrif Hamad (second left) and Ismail Jussa (third left) arriving at Dules airport Washington DC on June 11.

CUF is taking various actions to help it to survive; It is trying to launch a campaign of civil disobedience and has produced a report titled: “Human Rights Violations by Security Organs against the Opposition in Zanzibar 2015-2016.”

It said that it was going to file a case at the High Court against the Inspector General of Police and the Minister for Home Affairs for what it termed as ‘atrocities committed by police and other security organs against its supporters during the election’. Taking journalists through the report, CUF’s Acting Director for Human Rights, Ms Pavu Juma Abdallah, said that more than a thousand people had been directly affected by the ‘atrocities’ which she said had been committed during the election campaign. She added that it had all started on March 24 last year, when a CUF office in Dimani was torched. Five days later a militia attacked CUF supporters on their way from a rally in Makunduchi. A number of CUF supporters were said to have fallen victim to a wave of attacks including from uniformed police officers and other security operatives, which left six people with gunshot wounds. According to her, the data that CUF collected from the ground indicated that 300 people had been arrested by security officials. Some hundreds were said to have been beaten, 70 houses belonging to CUF supporters were destroyed. CUF said that it would use these figures to speed up the pro­cesses of helping The Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) to open investigations against “all those who perpetuated the atroci­ties.” CUF intends to send evidence to President Magufuli, and all local and international human rights organisations to give them a first-hand account of the alleged abuses.

In July-August, there was a visit by a CUF delegation, led by Secretary General Seif Sharrif Hamad, to the USA, Canada, Britain and other European countries to explain the dangers which might lie ahead. He repeatedly warned of unrest in the isles if the present situation contin­ued; Radicals would find an opening in Zanzibar, an archipelago with a 98% Muslim population.

Zitto Kabwe, MP for Kigoma and the leader of the small opposition ACT-Wazalendo Party, told The African Report that Zanzibar was “boiling”. There was is no legitimate government in Zanzibar and “I am worried that people will go to the streets”.

Many political analysts said that leaving CUF, which had been a pow­erful opposition force in the past 20 years, out of politics, could have serious repercussions on democracy and peace.

A statement issued by 16 high commissioners and ambassadors to Tanzania, condemned the ZEC decision to annul the Zanzibar election.

European Union reactions
The European Union clearly had some difficulty in reacting to the Zanzibar election results. Eventually it decided to maintain minimal contact with the government of Zanzibar’s President Ali Mohammed Shein because of the decision of the ZEC to annul the election results without providing evidence to justify “this unprecedented decision”.

The second election was boycotted by 9 out of 14 political parties, which had participated in the November 2015 poll.

Nape Nnauye, the ruling CCM party’s Publicity and Ideology Secretary, said that his party would go to the second polls regardless of any boy­cotting because ‘not all political parties have been fielding candidates in every election’.

by Enos Bukuku

The implementation of a new Tanzanian constitution has been left in limbo since April 2015 when the draft constitution was supposed to be put to a national referendum.

We now have some news which suggests that there is still a possibility that Tanzania will have a new constitution. President Magufuli announced on 23rd June that the government would ensure that the constitution making process would continue where it left off and that the final draft “Katiba” would be presented to the nation in the refer­endum.

This move has surprised many observers, who thought that the govern­ment had given up on passing the largely controversial and divisive draft. There had been suggestions that the government would go back and arrange for a further redraft of the constitution which would look more like the previous draft created by the Warioba-led Constitution Review Commission (CRC).

There has been no date given for the referendum and so it is not yet certain that it will take place this year, if at all. However, the longer the process takes, the more criticism and opposition the current draft constitution will face. This in turn will make it less likely that it will be voted for.

Already Joseph Warioba has warned the government that its attempts to stamp out corruption would be difficult without a supportive constitu­tion, and that some sections of the previous draft, now removed, con­tained provisions which could be used in Magufuli’s war on corruption.

Regarding democracy, veteran political journalist Jenerali Ulimwengu has been more outspoken and is quoted as saying, “Despite the actions that President Magufuli is taking and has been commended for, if you look at the bigger picture we have now gone back 50 years in democracy issues…..He (Kikwete) should come and explain ….if former ministers were taken to court for causing a loss to the government, Honourable Jakaya Kikwete should also be taken to court to answer charges for occasioning a huge loss to the government and destroying the hopes of citizens…by failure to get a new constitution”.

It is only a matter of time before Chadema and other opposition parties start attacking the government on constitutional matters.

Magufuli is between a rock and a hard place. The current draft constitu­tion has cost over TSh 116 billion (around $50 million) and counting. To go back and make further amendment will only add to the huge cost and will not guarantee a new agreed draft. To do nothing would be to waste the money spent so far. To push ahead with the current draft will antagonise the opposition. It is well known that the President does not like to waste money. We therefore wait for news of a referendum.

by David Brewin

President Magufuli helps clean the street outside State House in Dec 2015 (photo State House)

The seemingly tireless new President Magufuli of Tanzania has started his term of office with a number of spectacular measures most of which are not only proving extremely popular in Tanzania but also attracting interest in other East African countries and beyond.

It could be described as a huge ‘cleansing’ operation in which the main features include: a drive to eliminate corruption (in response to widespread demands from the electorate during the November 2015 elections); a cutting out of elements of low priority in the expenditure of government funds; and a better work ethic amongst government employees.

The President has changed so many policies and practices since taking office in November 2015 that it is difficult for a small journal like ‘Tanzanian Affairs’ to cover them adequately. He is, of course, operating through, and with the help of ministers, regional commissioners and others, who have been either kept on or brought in as replacements for those removed in various purges of existing personnel.

Changes under the new President
The following is a list of some of the President’s changes. Some were not carried out by him directly but by subordinates. It is clear however where the inspiration for them came from.

President Magufuli:

• issued a 7-day ultimatum to businessmen who have evaded tax, to pay up or risk arrest and court charges – “pay now so that we can leave you in peace”;

• ordered police to lock up 20 state employees who turned up late for a meeting in Dar es Salaam;

• made surprise visits to ministries and hospitals, and fired several civil servants after finding citizens waiting for assistance being unattended to;

• reduced the budget allocation for a government cocktail party by 90% because “it makes no sense to have an expensive party when patients are sleeping on the floor in government hospitals”;

• banned unnecessary foreign trips by government officials;

• dismissed several top government officials including the Director of Prevention and Combating of Corruption Bureau because of inefficiency, plus four other senior officials for defying the government’s ban on foreign travel as part of the new austerity measures;

• dismissed the Head of the Tanzanian Ports Authority and the top official in the Ministry of Transport over allegations of corruption and tax evasion;

• ordered an official delegation to the recent Commonwealth conference to be reduced in size from 55 officials to just 4; this has come as a shock to many government officials who have often used foreign trips as a means of subsidising their incomes;

• on the day of the inauguration of the new parliament, cut the cost of
the reception from some $350,000 to $10,000; the money saved, some of which was probably contributed by individuals and/or institutions was to be sent to the National Hospital in Dar es Salaam;

• arrested illegal immigrants from different countries for allegedly working without work permits and engaging in work that could be done by Tanzanians: 25 of these were Chinese, 5 Congolese, 3 Ghanaians, 3 Nigerians, 3 Somalis and 1 from the Ivory Coast; two Tanzanians were arrested while they were allegedly in the process of transporting 6 girls to the Middle East;

• planned a special court to fast-track the prosecution of those accused of corruption;

• warmly welcomed the President of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, Comrade Truong Tan Sang on a four-day state visit to Tanzania;

• on arrival at a regular meeting of the EAC Heads of State, questioned the rationale of holding such meetings at exclusive resorts when there were offices in each of the member countries; “I do not want to be a parasite” and added that he would be as ‘hands-on’ in the affairs of the EAC as he had been with Tanzanian public affairs; he added: “there is no justification for the summit to be held at a luxurious Safari Lodge at a cost of $45 for each delegate per-day”; during the meeting he brought what was described as ‘rare urgency’ to the proceedings; he was not, he said, a ‘protocol person’ and he hoped that the EAC heads of state would make hard decisions rather quickly;

• assured residents of Mwanza and Kagera regions that his government would purchase a new ship to operate between the two ports in the next financial year in accordance with his election pledge;

• directed the staff of the government newspapers “the Daily News” and “Habari Leo” to emphasise the various measures he was advocating and become leaders in the fight against networks connecting local and international drug dealers; “Those who have too much wealth must explain their sources,” he added;

• made it clear that he would deal with ethical failings by ministers through the ethics secretaries in his office;

• arranged for the Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology to oversee the printing of two million new authorised text-books in view of the poor quality, especially the col-ours used and poor page layout, in existing books; and to direct the publisher to remove the books from the government warehouse under government supervision; the ministry should ensure that the copies are destroyed and not sold on the market;

• took steps to revoke the establishment of the Arusha campus of the St. Joseph University in Tanzania;

• during the inauguration of a new 240 megawatt electric power plant project – which is using a new technology under which electricity will be generated from natural gas and the heat obtained from the plant will be used to heat water – instructed TANESCO to come up with constructive ideas on how businesses could set up their own electricity plants and stop paying for expensive hired plants; he said that there had to be a point when the country could produce its own reliable electricity and be able to sell the surplus to other countries; he went on to say; “experts or consultants who advise us to hire power plants instead of buying our own are not fit for the job and their employment should be terminated”; The President thanked Japan, the World Bank, the African Development Bank and other development partners for their help; The Japanese Ambassador to Tanzania, Masharu Yoshida, said that this project would be the first of its kind in East Africa;

• during his swearing in ceremony gave authorities 15 days to eliminate ghost workers (people who do not exist but receive a salary – at least 1,680 ghost workers have now been removed). He said that the youth in the country should work instead of playing games, such as pool, during the day, while leaving adults to work on the land.

• appointed Mr Hamza Johari as the new Director General of the Tanzanian Civil Aviation Authority (TCAA); the previous holder of the post had been suspended for massive financial and procurement irregularities;

• condemned the killing of a British conservationist after his helicopter was shot down while he was chasing suspected poachers in the Maswa Game Reserve;

• at the opening of a new Police Station at Tengeru near Arusha it was announced that no more firearm licences would be issued until all existing licences had been checked;

• the Minister of State in the President’s directed ministries to open registers in which public officials will declare all gifts of a value exceeding TSh 50,000 ($23) they receive; the Commissioner of the Ethics Secretariat commented that, although the law was specific on the matter, he had not come across any gift declaration by any civil servant!

Dr. Magufuli and his family are said to live modestly. His wife is a primary school teacher and the children go to state schools. It is understood that the President travelled abroad only 5 times during the 20 years he was in the Cabinet.

by Ben Taylor

Sarah Cooke

Sarah Cooke, pictured, has been appointed British High Commissioner to the United Republic of Tanzania in succession to Dianna Melrose, who will be leaving the Diplomatic Service. Sarah will take up her appointment in July 2016.

This was announced by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in early February, and was followed by rumours that the current High Commissioner had been recalled at the request of the Tanzanian government. The FCO later issued a second statement, denying that this was the case.

“Contrary to some media reports, the British High Commissioner, Dianna Melrose, will not be ending her mission in Tanzania until the end of July 2016, at the normal conclusion of her posting,” read the statement.

Sarah Cooke has worked for the Department for International Development for the past 11 years, since 2012 as Country Representative for DfID in Bangladesh. This will be her first posting in the Diplomatic Service.

Relations between the diplomatic community and the Tanzanian government have been tense since the disputed Zanzibar elections, and perceived interference of diplomats in domestic matters. See Foreign Relations section for further details.

by David Brewin

Reactions to the Zanzibar election results
Following the second Zanzibar elections, relations between Tanzania and the western powers (the USA and EU) have cooled.

Among the many changes being proposed and/or implemented under the new Magufuli regime, the government has announced restrictions on the movement of diplomatic personnel and consular staff as well as the staff of international aid, other aid agencies and other organisations.
In future, they will have to obtain government clearance for all their planned activities, including any meetings with leaders of various political parties. They will also have to seek permission from the Ministry of Foreign affairs before travelling upcountry and meeting local government authorities. The government said that this is normal diplomatic practice.

The government was not pleased by the action of 17 Western countries
in issuing a statement asking President Magufuli to intervene in solving the electoral controversy in Zanzibar.

Burundi Refugees
The post election stalemate in Burundi continues to cause concern in Tanzania because of the number of refugees crossing over the border from Burundi. Some 85,000 are understood to have been registered. Some of the old refugee camps in Tanzania are being used again but there is overcrowding and a lack of hygiene as there is an acute water shortage in the border area. The refugees are said to have no fire wood and their make-shift shelters cannot withstand rain storms. A statement by the UN Office in Tanzania has said that $11 million have been allocated to respond to urgent needs.

The media
At almost the same time as The East African was being allowed to be sold again in Tanzania, another ban was imposed on the Swahili weekly newspaper Mawio, which was accused of publishing seditious material. The new Information Minister Nape Nnauye said that the paper had published alarming and inciting content over the elections.

International praise for the President
Tanzania’s new president has been receiving plaudits from around the world for what he has achieved in attacking corruption and reducing unnecessary government expenditure in a very short period of time.

The founding Father of the Country, Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, who ruled Tanzania in the days when Apartheid still existed in South Africa, always tended to put foreign policy at the top of his list of priorities as he used his influence to bring about the fall of the Portuguese Empire in Mozambique and Angola, and brought China into Africa to help build the Tazara railway. Succeeding Presidents followed his example by making sure that Tanzania’s voice was heard around the world. In the first days of President Magufuli’s rule, however, he has indicated that he has other immediate priorities.

Since his inauguration, there have been four global summits and a mini- SADC summit, none of which he attended. There have also been the Commonwealth Heads of State and Government Summit (CHOGM) held in Malta in November 2015; the Paris Climate Change Summit in December 2015; the Africa-China Summit in South Africa in December 2015; and the African Union Summit in January 2016. The first two were attended by the Tanzanian ambassadors in London and Paris respectively. The other two were attended by the new Tanzanian Vice-President, Samia Suluhu Hassan. A mini summit of the SADC organ on peace and security in Botswana in December, was attended by Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa. By the President not attending the CHOGM summit in Malta and cutting the size of Tanzania’s delegation from 55 to only 4, the government saved an estimated TSh 750 million.

As regards the African Union (AU) two summits are held each year compared with its predecessor (the OAU) which held only one. A Tanzanian proposal to reduce it to once every two years was rejected by other members.

President Magufuli did not attend his regular annual meeting with members of the diplomatic corps at State House in Dar es Salaam in February 2016, although he was represented by his Minister for Foreign Affairs.

As far as Zanzibar is concerned, the President has presided over several meetings to try and resolve the situation but the participants were unable to reach a compromise solution.

Foreign aid
The results of the second Zanzibar election have caused much dismay in America and Europe and the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), which controls most of America’s $472,000 aid programme (this year), immediately stopped aid. This had to be done because, under US law, these funds can only be provided to countries with clearly democratically elected governments.

Finance Minister Philip Mpango reacted by saying that the government had anticipated the move by the MCC and had worked out alternatives. Dr. Mpango stated that Tanzania was looking for other funding for the projects and added that when President Magufuli took office he had laid emphasis on revenue collection with the aim of reducing dependency on foreign aid.

He said that he hoped to engage in discussions with the MCC in order to know why it had made its decision and what Tanzania should do in order to be reconsidered.

The MCC also sought assurances from Tanzania that the new Cyber Crimes Act would not be used to limit freedom of expression and association.

The US claimed that Tanzania had moved forward with a new election in Zanzibar that was neither inclusive nor representative, despite the repeated concerns expressed by the US government and the international community. Tanzania had also not taken measures to ensure that freedom of expression and association were respected in the implementation of the Cyber Crimes Act.

Expulsion of Foreign Teachers
It is reported that an estimated 5,000 teachers said to be illegal immigrants, most of whom came from the East African region, are to be expelled from the country. This has caused concern amongst educators. Private schools are largely dependent on foreign teachers, particularly for English and Science, and these expulsions are expected to have a major negative impact on private English Medium schools.

by Enos Bukuku

Two tiers or not two tiers? Will it all end in tears?
It was in 2011 when President Kikwete initiated the process of reviewing the current constitution with a view to ensuring that Tanzania would be equipped with a new constitution which would be fit for modern day Tanzania. That was of course five years ago.

“Why is this taking so long?”, you may ask. I feel you will not get a straight answer to that question through official channels. If you do manage to get any kind of response, depending on whom you ask, it is likely that either the government or the opposition will be blamed. The former will be blamed for hijacking the process, ignoring the so called “people’s draft constitution” produced by the Constitutional Review Commission (CRC) led by retired Judge Warioba. The opposition, and in particular, UKAWA, are accused of trying to frustrate the whole process for political gain.

This is not an argument over proposals in the draft over education, health, gender equality, children’s rights etc. Sadly, those issues have been paid little attention by those responsible for debating and approving the final draft. The big bone of contention in the proposed constitution has always been the structure of the Union: whether there should be a two-tier government as there currently is, or a new three-tier government which, amongst other things, gives more autonomy to Zanzibar. Warioba’s CRC included a three-tier government because their consultations indicated that the majority of both mainland Tanzanians and Zanzibaris were in favour of it.

On the other hand, CCM were always against a three-tier government and managed to controversially push a final draft through the Constituent Assembly which kept the current structure. This led to the formation of the opposition UKAWA coalition. The Civic United Front (CUF) boycotted the re-run elections in Zanzibar in March and has made it clear that it does not recognise the new Zanzibari government; they are likely to fight CCM on most issues.

The political unrest in Zanzibar has always been a source of frustration for the government. The constitution review process has not helped in bringing calm. If anything, it has reopened old, deep wounds – the type which leave permanent scars. In simple terms, the balance of power distributed between the mainland and Zanzibar is seen as very unsatisfactory by many Zanzibaris. In the eyes of politicians, this has become much more than ensuring that basic and fundamental rights are enshrined in a new legal document. This is a power struggle.

A national referendum on the constitution was due in April last year, but was postponed indefinitely. There had been suggestions that the referendum would take place at the same time as the elections last October, but this did not happen.There has been a deafening silence from the current government regarding a new constitution.

CHADEMA’s new Secretary-General, Dr Vincent Mashinji, in his first speech as leader, has already called for a fight for the new constitution. Whilst he was of course referring to a metaphorical fight, it is possible that actual fighting over this issue could be in store over the coming months. “From now on, all MPs will have to embrace an agenda for the new constitution while in the House. The rest of us will do so outside the House by exercising all our civic and constitutional rights and, if need be, staging demonstrations in demand for the same,” he passionately demanded.

The nation awaits a response from President Magufuli or CCM.

by David Brewin

Map showing the results of the Parliamentary Elections by district (Ben Taylor http://www.uchaguzitz.co.tz/)

The elections
The leaders of Tanzania’s ruling Chama cha Mageuzi (CCM) party must have been worried last October, in the face of what many expected to be a greatly strengthened opposition. There was the possibility that it might face defeat on election day – October 25. They must be happy with the results (which are given below).

The main opposition party CHADEMA had acquired a new and dynamic leader, Edward Lowassa, a former CCM Prime Minister under President Kikwete. Further, the party had joined with three other parties to form a coalition, called UKAWA (Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi) or ‘Coalition of Defenders of the People’s Constitution’, which promised to present a strong challenge, and which had access to sufficient resources to run a formidable campaign. UKAWA must have been disappointed by the results and Lowassa refused initially to accept them.

(Details of what happened in the period leading up to the elections were given in Tanzanian Affairs No 112).

In fact, the elections turned out to be peaceful and the management by the National Electoral Commission (NEC) was generally good. In Zanzibar, the elections were also well managed but, as is usual in the Isles, the actions of the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) described below, raised many questions.

A leading article about the elections in The East African, which is still banned in Tanzania, described Tanzania as still the most stable and peaceful country in an otherwise turbulent region. The paper looked forward to a smooth transition of the kind that had been the hallmark of Tanzanian politics for many years.

Presidential Election results:
Candidate – Party – Votes (%)
John Magufuli – CCM – 8,882,935 (58.5%)
Edward Lowassa – CHADEMA – 6,072,848 (40.0%)
Anna Mghwira – ACT–Wazalendo – 98,763 (0.65%)
Lutalosa Yembe – ADC – 66,049 (0.43%)
Hashim Rungwe Spunda – CHAUMMA – 49,256 (0.32%)
Machmillan Lyimoo – TLP – 8,198 (0.05%)
Janken Kasambala – NRA – 8,028 (0.05%)
Fahmi Nassoro Dovutwa – UPDP – 7,785 (0.05%)
Total 15,193,862 (100%)
Registered electors 23,254,485 Source: NEC

Parliamentary elections
Here again the UKAWA coalition must have been disappointed – while the overall percentage of votes for CHADEMA rose from 24% (2010 election) to 32% (2015 election) and the vote for CCM fell from 60% to 55%, the coalition had been expecting to have many more of their candidates elected as MPs. The number of MPs elected (subject to change after some by-elections and legal challenges by some losing candidates) was as follows:

Party Votes (%) No. of seats* (change from 2010 Election)
CCM 8,021,427 (55.0%) 189 seats (+3 from 2010)
CHADEMA 4,627,923 (31.8%) 34 seats (+11 from 2010)
CUF 1,257,765 (8.6%) 32 seats (+8 from 2010)
ACT Wazalendo 323,112 (2.2%) 1 seat (+1 from 2010)
NCCR-Mageuzi 218,209 (1.5%) 1 seat (-3 from 2010)

*Based on data from http://www.parliament.go.tz/ and http://www.ipu.org/. Numbers do not include the 110 special seats (women) and MPs nominated by the President which brings the total number of MPs to over 370.

National trends and regional results
Senior Researcher in the Africa Research Institute Nick Branson has produced a paper, which first appeared on the Institute’s blog in November 2015. It analyses the results and gives details from the main cities and regions.

It also contains ideas on what the future of Tanzania might look like and expresses Branson’s opinions on some controversial issues. Extracts from his paper:

‘United behind a common cause, and boasting a harmonised list of candidates UKAWA was able to compete in urban constituencies where CCM had hitherto been able to profit from a divided opposition.

‘The opposition exceeded expectations in Dar es Salaam, where its MPs now outnumber those from CCM. CHADEMA retained its seats in Ubongo and Kawe, won the new constituency of Kibamba, and took Ukonga from CCM. CUF candidates ousted CCM incumbents in Kinondoni and Temeke. CCM won only four of the ten seats in the city: Ilala, Kigamboni, Segerea and Mbagala.

‘Uniting behind the opposition presidential candidate, Edward Lowassa, who is from the Northern Zone, enabled CHADEMA to win a swathe of seats across Arusha, Kilimanjaro and Manyara regions. The opposition Civic United Front (CUF) a mainly Zanzibar party secured the constituency of Tanga Urban and control of Tanga District Council on the Tanzanian mainland.

‘Yet, opposition advances were cancelled out by Magufuli’s popularity in his native Lake Zone, limiting CHADEMA’s gains in Mara and Shinyanga regions. Mwanza, Tanzania’s second city, where he used to work as a chemist and teacher, remains in the hands of the ruling party.
‘The opposition failed to challenge CCM hegemony of the rural Central Zone, with the exception of one seat in Tabora, won by CUF, and two falling to the opposition in Kigoma.

‘However, remarkable progress was made in the Southern Highlands, where CHADEMA won four parliamentary seats in Mbeya and one in Iringa region, in addition to taking control of the Mbeya and Iringa town councils.

‘The Coast Zone also saw opposition gains: CHADEMA took five seats in Morogoro region; CUF took four in Lindi region; and both parties secured MPs in Mtwara.

‘Nationally, CCM’s Magufuli proved more effective at “getting out the vote”. Of the 6.5 million additional votes cast in 2015 compared with 2010, 3.6 million went to Magufuli.’

Some other significant results
In the hotly contested Bukoba Urban seat Wilfred Lawakatare (CHADEMA) beat the previous MP Khamis Kagasheki (CCM) by almost 10%.

The candidate for Vunjo, (Moshi) James Mbatia, leader of the small NCCR – Mageuzi party, won the seat easily with 60,187 votes. The CCM candidate obtained 16,617 and the one time very famous politician Augustine Mrema 6,416. In spite of this result Mrema filed a petition at the Moshi High Court to challenge the results. He said he ‘wanted justice’.

The result in the Serengeti constituency was an unexpected setback for CCM. Many observers felt that the previous MP Dr Stephen Kebwe ran a poor campaign. He got only 5,980 votes compared with the 9,268 for CHADEMA.

The ambitious leader of the new ACT – Wazalendo party, Zitto Kabwe MP, who was also Chairman of the influential Public Accounts Committee in the previous National Assembly and gained fame for his attacks on corruption, did well. He got 31,546 votes in his Kigoma Central constituency compared with 17,344 for CCM and 12,077 for CHADEMA. But he will be a lonely voice in parliament, as he was the only one of the ACT party candidates to win election. Kabwe said that he would support President Magufuli on the corruption issue. “Why should we oppose him?” he asked.

An opportunity for reconciliation
Branson’s paper goes on: ‘An influx of new legislators – with 40% female representation – will make the eleventh parliament the most representative and dynamic yet. This should provide constituents with a new opportunity to raise hitherto neglected grievances and ensure the proper scrutiny of legislation. However, an increased opposition presence in the chamber will also renew calls for debate over the country’s constitutional settlement’.

Technology
The election campaign was unlike earlier campaigns because of the widespread use of new technology.

All parties and their members have made great use of social media which has been a powerful influence to complement the traditional posters, newspapers, radio and television advertisements. All parties and their members were wooing voters on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and WhatsApp. A CHADEMA spokesman was quoted as saying that his party were employing every technology at its disposal to detect, stop or otherwise curtail vote-rigging.

About 75% of the 48 million population have access to mobile phones and it is estimated that Tanzania has about nine million internet users, thanks to the technological revolution fueled by fibre-optic cable and the substantial decline in the cost of using the internet.

Lowassa’s future
After the results were announced Lowassa refused to recognise the victory of Magufuli. He said: “I have lost the battle but not the war”. He added that he would remain in active politics after losing the elections which he said had been rigged. However, in view of the size of the victory of Dr Magufuli, most Tanzanians appeared to accept that he did win.

Promises
During the campaign the candidates promised many things. Among them that hawkers would be free to display their wares wherever they chose, small traders would have unlimited access to loans and education would be free. Lowassa promised that petty traders and motorcycle taxi operators would not be harassed by the police. Dr Magufuli added women food vendors to this list. He also promised TSh 50 million to every village for lending to entrepreneurs.

Lowassa would reduce income tax. He also promised to form a committee to resolve conflicts between pastoralists and farmers. He would have a removal of traffic jams in the capital and have electricity and piped water across the country.

The predominant word during the election was ‘CHANGE’, used by all parties. The opposition coalition of CHADEMA, CUF, NCCR – Mageuzi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) largely held together during the campaign as parties negotiated about the actual seats in which they would be allowed to stand.

Under new rules, the presidential results published by the Electoral Commissions on the mainland and Zanzibar would be final and no challenges would be allowed in the courts.

Defections
During the campaign several well-known members of the CCM party defected to the opposition group of parties in UKAWA. They included the party’s ideological guru Kingunge Ngombale-Mwiru, former Prime Minister Frederick Sumaye, Hassan Moyo who was prominently involved in the 1964 Zanzibar revolution, Lawrence Masha, a former home affairs minister, and a former Secretary-General of the East African Commission, Juma Mwapachu. In most cases, these defections were seen as linked to Lowassa’s decision to leave CCM and join CHADEMA.

Police action
During the final stages of the election count the police raided and seized 24 computers from an office used by the ‘Tanzanian Civil Society Consortium on Election Observation’. They also arrested 36 data clerks at the centre. They suspected the centre was collecting, tallying and distributing election results to the public, contrary to a recently passed law. After five hours the personnel were released but the equipment remained in the possession of the Police.

The police also entered a CHADEMA election data centre and arrested 166 people, in connection with unlawful posting to the social media network of unverified election results’ contrary to new regulations. The police said that they were trying to establish the motivation behind their action, who the results were for, who paid for them and what they wanted to do with the results in future. The police said that, if mishandled, the figures could result in a breach of the peace if they were different from those published officially.

The inauguration
At a big ceremony in the Uhuru Stadium in Dar es Salaam, former President Kikwete arrived in a State House open car, waving from right to left to applause across the stadium. He received a 21-gun salute before inspecting his last guard of honour as Head of State. Deafening cheers greeted him as he proceeded to the dais to witness the swearing in of Dr Magufuli and Vice President-elect Samia Hassan Suluhu from Zanzibar, both of whom took their oaths of office before Chief Justice Mohammed Othman. Dr Magufuli took the oath and was then presented with the country’s Constitution before sitting on a traditional stool and being presented with a shield and spear.

President Magufuli’s inauguration

Women
53% of all registered voters in the election were women compared with 48% in 2010. However, women made up only 19% of those nominated by their parties as candidates. This is one of the reasons why in Tanzania a number of special seats are allocated in parliament for persons nominated by their parties in numbers proportional to the number of seats they have won in parliament.