THE ECONOMIC PROSPECTS OF ZANZIBAR

The islands of Zanzibar and Pemba, on account of their geographical location off-shore and their differences of history and ecology, their economic performance and their growth prospects, differ somewhat from those of the mainland. Zanzibar has a population many times as dense as the mainland outside Dar es Salaam, that in Pemba being 40% greater even than Unguja. Population growth is now believed to be running at about 3% overall, a rate of growth greater in Unguja than in Pemba. Today the islands are estimated to have a joint population of 680,000 and an average population density of 260 per square kilometre. Zanzibar does not suffer from the problems of sheer distance which seriously affect economic activity on the mainland. On the other hand, for historical reasons, the economy of Zanzibar depends substantially on a single export crop, cloves, the export of which is still responsible for 90% of Zanzibar’s foreign exchange earnings.

In the sixties the export of cloves, of which Pemba was the main source, earned Zanzibar a healthy foreign exchange balance. But times have changed. Zanzibar has lost its near monopoly advantage and in common with other tropical export crops the price of cloves in world markets has fallen drastically. The volume of export sales fell from 10,800 tonnes in 1973 to 3,510 in 1990. At the beginning of the eighties cloves were selling at $3,000 per tonne, but by the end of the decade the price had fallen to $2,000 per tonne.

This state of affairs has been reflected in the unfavourable balance of trade that has arisen since 1986 with a deficit of Shs. 859.17 million, rising to Shs. 4,037.98 million in 1990. The disastrous effect on the balance of payments has severely constricted the country’s ability to import food, medicines, raw materials, machinery and other necessary items and has only been mitigated by foreign import support estimated to amount to Shs 9,294 million over a period of 5 years, rising from Shs. 692. 4 million in 1986 to Shs 4,942.24 in 1990. No country, certainly not Zanzibar, welcomes this degree of economic dependency.

Zanzibar’s trade with the mainland of Tanzania has, on the other hand, been increasing in recent years. From a deficit of Shs 48 million in 1987, trade went into a surplus of Shs 689.7 million in 1990. This favourable trade relationship, if continued, will help to ease the liquidity problems that have encumbered the Zanzibar economy in recent years. Moreover, as the mainland economy develops, the range of products for which Zanzibar will be able to look to the mainland will gradually increase. The maintenance of the surplus is therefore crucial for Zanzibar . One way in which it can be maintained is through a reduction of food imports from mainland Tanzania by increasing local production. A policy along these lines is well in hand, but in view of rate of population increase, it is by no means easy to achieve results.

The rising population growth and falling gross domestic product during the eighties resulted in a marked fall in the standard of living in monetary terms. In 1976 the average GDP per head was in the region of Shs 2,240, falling to Shs 1,188 in 1989. Over the same period the contribution of agriculture to the GDP fell from Shs 572 million in 1976 to Shs 384 million in 1989. The inhabitants of Pemba are especially vulnerable. Near complete dependence on cloves exposes them to a real risk of hunger when the harvest is poor and the dominance of cloves in the economy of Pemba acts as a disincentive for private investment on the Island.

As in mainland Tanzania, the solution to the foreign exchange problem lies mainly in the Islands’ ability to diversify exports. This will call for unremitting effort over a substantial period of time. The present scope accorded to private enterprises will help to stimulate non-traditional exports by providing room for initiative, but it would be misleading to suggest that such enterprises can become a major factor in Zanzibar’s foreign trade in the short term. Meantime, the Zanzibar Government is pressing for increased food production within the short term. With the ultimate goal of self-sufficiency in food, the Government has launched a programme called “Mtakula”, which has already shown some results. The programme includes diversification into such products as cardamom, red pepper and other agricultural items for export. In the industrial field, current plans provide that any expansion and any new enterprises are designed to reduce reliance on imports. At the same time the Presidential Commission of Enquiry into the Monetary and Banking System of Tanzania has included within the scope of its recommendations the Zanzibar People’s Bank and measures to alter its status and its efficiency are under consideration.

The Plan for Economic Revival in Zanzibar of 1988 resembles in broad outline measures now being taken on the mainland. The budget for 1988/89 showed savings of 5.41. in comparison with the previous year; subsidies were removed from foodstuffs such as rice, sugar and wheat flour; there has been a reduction in government employment brought about by retirement and the control of new appointments; banking services are being extended by opening branches throughout Unguja and Pemba; new impetus is being given t o a law of 1986, which aims at stimulating the activities of domestic and foreign companies; and a study is being made of such matters as a free port , an export processing zone, off-shore investment and banking and ship registration. Following a relaxation of trade regulations, substantial benefits have been recorded, including a growth of activity year by year among individual traders.

Government plans give careful attention to measures designed to mitigate the adverse effects of structural adjustment and provision has been made for investment in the economic and social infrastructure. An interesting component of social policy is the attention that is given to widening the productive opportunities open to women and also the attempt made to harness for productive purposes the energies of young people. An independent foundation known as Mfuko wa Kujitegemea has been established under the Land Perpetual Succession Act to collect funds from all manner of voluntary sources for the purpose of providing soft loans for promotion of productive enterprises. Priority is given to unemployed men, women and young people, to the development of the informal sector and to assisting the handicapped and the underprivileged.
J. Roger Carter

THE ZANZIBAR DECLARATION

The Leadership Code and Party Membership Rules associated with Julius Nyerere’s famous ‘Arusha Declaration’ which laid out Tanzania’s political philosophy for the last 24 years were revised significantly at a meeting in February 1991 in Zanzibar of the National Executive Committee of the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) Party. Under whet hes come to be known as the ‘Zanzibar Declaration’ Party members are now authorised to participate in private economic activities.

They can earn more than one salary, buy shares and take up directorships in private companies and build houses to let – things which were expressly forbidden under the Arusha Declaration.

Explaining the changes CCM Secretary General Horace Kolimba said they would encourage more individual participation in economic activities and thus reduce the pressure on government institutions and parastatal organisations. He said professionals were expected to seize the opportunity to apply themselves fully in income-generating side jobs, the impact of which would be to create more employment opportunities.

He admitted that many leaders and members of the CCM Party had been involved in corrupt activities and dubious accumulation of wealth contrary to the ‘Ujamaa’ policy. Many members had also started poultry schemes and housing projects in order to improve their economic conditions. He said that the trend now was for the Party to create conditions in which CCM members and Tanzanians in general could lead prosperous lives. This, he said, was the essence of the decisions taken in Zanzibar on the Leadership Code and party membership and they were not contrary to the Arusha Declaration. Mr Kolimba went on to say that when regimes are behind the times then it was necessary to ‘legitimise common sense’.

Many Party members have expressed their dissatisfaction about the changes and National Executive Committee members have been visiting the regions to explain the changes.

DIGGING UP ZANZIBAR

Inscriptions from a prayer niche in the mosque on Tumbatu island.

Of all the things that Zanzibar is famous for, its archaeology is probably not one. Yet for 1989, African archaeology was essentially Zanzibar’s with no less than three major international projects in the Isles. The results of last summers ‘ diggings promise to change much of what we thought we knew about the history of the East African coast. During the British period there was a very ambivalent attitude towards the past. On the one hand careful records were made of the standing antiquities accompanied by some sober and, more often, wild speculation. A museum was built but many of the objects there were poorly catalogued and many coins were lost. Colonial officials did their best to demolish the most important ruins – parts of the Marahubi Palace were taken down in the fifties as unsafe, while only the Revolution in Zanzibar saved the Chake Chake Fort whose fate had been almost sealed by 0 proposed hospital expansion in late 1963. A little archaeology took place at Ras Mkumbu, which Sir J. Gray thought was the ancient city of Kanbalu. Dr James Kirkman showed that he was wrong. After 1963 all research stopped, and responsibility shifted from one Ministry to another. Many of the monuments fell down; a few more were destroyed for their stones.

In 1984 we were invited by the Ministry of Information, Culture and Tourism to undertake a survey of Zanzibar’s archaeological sites and monuments. In collaboration with Abdulrahman M Juma, the Anti qui ties Officer of the Ministry, we found over 60 sites during the next two years. At many of these we dug ‘test pits’ (small holes a metre square) which produce a sequence of pottery and stratigraphy that provide a clear indication of the date range and wealth of the community.

One find was especially spectacular. At Mtambwe Mkuu, a large town of the 11th century in Pemba, which is even mentioned by Arab geographers by the name of Tamby, we found intact a large hoard of gold and silver coins, buried in a cloth pouch. The gold coins were all Fatimid dinars from Egypt, the latest dating to 1066 AD. But the silver coins, which numbered over 2,000, were of greater historical interest. They were locally minted – probably at Mtambwe itself – and give the names of nine local rulers living in the 11th century.

The next stage was detailed mapping and area excavation work. In 1989 three different groups were each allocated a major site. The Ministry itself worked at Unguja Ukuu, with help from SAREC and the Urban Origins Project; the University of Dar es Salaam worked at Pujini in Pemba; we worked with the British Institute in Eastern Africa on Tumbatu island.

Unguja Mkuu may well turn out to be the earliest site on the whole African coast. It covers a massive area of at least 30 hectares, with middens, buried walls, and what appears to be part of a fortification.

A burial site was also excavated with clear evidence of a spear wound in the skull. Abdulrahman Juma was able to identify a wide range of pottery and glass finds, including Chinese Tang Stonewares and very early Islamic moulded wares, possibly as early as the 7th century. Languja is mentioned by Al Jahiz in the 9th century, as one of the most important ports on the coast. Abdulrahman Juma seems to have found it at Unguja Ukuu.

The work at Pujini identified a rather different site, probably dating to the 15th century. Traditions link Pujini with a tyrannical ruler of Pemba, Mdame Mkume, who, among other things, forced the workers who built Pujini to carry the stones on their heads while shuffling on their buttocks. The work here, led by Dr. Adria LaViolette, found no direct archaeological evidence for such practices but a large and quite unique fortress was uncovered. Surrounded by large ramparts and a ditch, a square enclosure contained a number of stone houses, as well as two subterranean chamber s . Such fortifications are very rare before the arrival of firearms on the coast and the only explanation is that Pujini was the product of fantasy.

The third project on Tumbatu attempted to uncover parts of the best preserved medieval town on the islands. Tumbatu is, almost certainly, the Tumbat, mentioned by Yakut as the place where the ruler of the Zanj lived in the 13th century. It is a large town covering 20 hectares with over 40 ruined houses and mounds. There are at least four mosques of which three were discovered last year. In one of the mosques, the mihrab or prayer niche was excavated and found to contain an almost complete inscription collapsed on the floor. This was carved in local coral, using floriate Kufic script. Only one other example of such a script is known from East Africa and that is at Kizimkazi, where it is dated to 500/1107 AD. We are sure that the Tumbatu inscription was by the same craftsman. The style used is very close to recently discovered tombstones from the Persian Gulf port of Siraf, which was the seaport for Shiraz. Here, for the first time, we have some archaeological proof behind the many Shirazi traditions in Zanzibar, which were echoed in modern times, for example, in the name of the Afro-Shirazi Party.

We are sure that 1990 will yield more from, the buried soils of Zanzibar and Pemba where further work is planned at all three sites. Meanwhile, some of the more spectacular finds have already been put on display in the Zanzibar Museum. (Further information is available from the British Institute in Eastern Africa, Pitt Rivers Museum, Oxford OXl 3PP – Editor).
Mark Horton

ZANZIBAR CHIEF MINISTER AT BRITAIN-TANZANIA SOCIETY SEMINAR

Considerable importance was attached by the media in Tanzania to the speech given by Zanzibar Chief Minister Omar Ali Juma at a seminar in London organised by the Britain-Tanzania Society on May 20th 1989. Dr. Juma said that it was high time Zanzibaris ignored past socio-political sentiments and set about strengthening unity in the interests of developing the country.

In a follow-up news item under the heading ‘London Society Clear on Isles’ readers of the Daily News were informed that members of the Society had developed a new outlook on the current political and economic situation in Zanzibar following the Chief Minister’s address. The writer went on to state that ‘several society members interviewed explained that the Chief Minister’s speech has checked opposite views held by some of the society members, particularly on reports spreading here that Zanzibar was violating human rights …. seminar participants seemed to agree with the speech which explained the sources of the current problems and their objectives’. Dr. Juma said that the Isles’ disturbances were caused be racial sentiments, former political outlooks and the notion by some people that Zanzibar was being turned into an Arab country. The Chief Minister said that many of the problems were caused by discontented politicians, opportunists and self-exiled persons.

Members of the Britain-Tanzania Society have received a full account of the speech and the subsequent day-long discussion which covered almost every aspect of life in Zanzibar.

NO REFERENDUM
In a later development reported in the Daily News (on June 16th) the Chief Minister restated the view of the Zanzibar Government on the holding of a referendum on the fate of the Union between Tanganyika and Zanzibar. Dr. Juma criticised Government adversaries who had appealed to the United Nations to arrange a referendum. Dr Juma said that the Union was ‘our own creation and all along we have been perfecting it without seeking the advice of anybody abroad … no foreign institution can suggest, leave alone dictate to Zanzibaris how they should govern themselves … political activities in the isles operate on established procedures …. problems arising in the Union are tackled using the machinery we have set up’.

FORMER CHIEF MINISTER (SEIF SHARIFF HAMAD) ARRESTED

Zanzibar’s former Chief Minister Mr Seif Shariff Hamad was arrested with three others on May 10, 1989 for holding illegal political meetings on Pemba island. According to the African Economic Digest, four days later he faced a further charge of illegally obtaining state secrets. The Chief Public Prosecutor was said to have told a magistrates court that the police had uncovered 10 kilos of secret documents. These were said to be intelligence reports and descriptions of military installations. Hamad leads a group that was expelled from the ruling party (CCM) in May 1988 (Bulletin No.31). Government and Party leaders were said, according to the article, to have accused the group of trying to break up the Union between Zanzibar and the mainland and of advocating a referendum on the matter.

A few days before these dramatic events (throngs of people were said to have lined the route to the packed courthouse, according to another report) the Daily News stated that the Zanzibar branch of the Tanzania Workers Organisation (JUWATA) had deplored at a rally ‘political cheats and opportunists’ who were undermining the stability of the Isles. The misguided elements ‘must be fought with all vigour’ the workers declared.

Later, according to Africa Analysis, the charge of conducting an illegal assembly was dropped and a lengthy dispute between prosecution and defence developed on the subject of bail. At time of going to press it is understood that the accused had not been granted bail.

The Daily News took up the story in a number of articles stretching through until mid August. It was learnt that charges against Hamad’s co-accused had been dropped but that legal aid for Hamad, which was being provided by the University of Dar es Salaam Legal Aid Committee, had been withdrawn. The police had threatened to bring Hamad to court in handcuffs to stop him waving to the people but the magistrate had said it was not a crime to wave to people. On August 1st the paper said that 25 state documents described as top secret which should have been handed over had been found at Hamad’s house. Hamad still faced a charge of holding an illegal meeting in Pemba. Just before the Bulletin went to press in late August the state prosecutor was said to have applied for future hearings to be held in camera because of the sensitivity of the documents. The magistrate was considering the matter.

Meanwhile, Africa Events published five articles under the headings: ‘Tense But Calm’ (immediately after the arrest), ‘Fears of a Drift’ (referring to financial changes in Zanzibar which might slow down the integration of the Zanzibar economy with that of the mainland), ‘Upstairs Downstairs’ (referring to the ‘dizzying, whirlwind’ career of Hamad), ‘Zanzibar Handcuffed To Its Own Indecisions’ (on the handcuffing of Hamad) and ‘Too Hot To Handle’ (speculation as to why legal aid had been withdrawn).

In the article on Hamad’s career the writer wrote of him, during his time as Chief Minister as ‘young (43), dynamic, educated, extremely diligent …. he demanded more and more from his people.. he developed the habit of turning up unannounced at different Zanzibar offices and meting out instant punishment to those not at their desks; he became very popular’. But ‘Zanzibar politics are insular in the extreme. People are highly aware politically but their view seldom extends beyond the Zanzibar Channel ‘ . .. . Hamad was thought not to have sufficiently mobilised support behind the Party’s choice for President in the last elections. He came into disfavour at the highest levels’.

MWALIMU NYERERE TAKES A TOUGH LINE IN PEMBA AND ZANZIBAR

Party Chairman Julius Nyerere spent the first five days of March 1989 in Pemba, The front page headlines in the Daily/Sunday News tell their own story of what happened.

March 2: Nyerere Dismisses False Propaganda
March 3: Mwalimu Warns Agitators
March 4: Pemba Elders Want Severe Punishment For Detractors
March 5: Regional Commissioners Free To Detain Trouble Shooters

He is reported to have made the following remarks in addresses to various Party meetings in Pemba. (He was responding, among other things, to the demand by Party elders for punitive action to be taken against ‘traitors, detractors and hypocrites’ on the island).

He said that Party members should ignore false propaganda being spread by disgruntled elements against the Party and its leaders. Government organs would book opportunists disturbing political stability on the pretext of promoting democracy. “Democracy is not chaos …. Frankly, I personally don’t care what he (referring to former Zanzibar Chief Minister Seif Shariff Hamad’s reported mud-slinging campaign against the Party and its leaders) says … He can stand on top of Kilimanjaro and shout himself hoarse, but there is a limit to which the utterances will be tolerated” . Hamad and his clique, who were expelled from the Party last year, were motivated by impetuous greed for power … they had been given every opportunity to reform. Mwalimu said that Hamad had written abusive letters to him and to Party Vice Chairman Mwinyi. Mwalimu added however that the Party would protect the constitutional rights of Hamad and his group.

Later, in Zanzibar island, Mwalimu told Regional Commissioners to apply state powers, including detention, against political cheats and opportunists who were waging a smear campaign. He warned that Commissioners failing to book the culprits would be treated as accomplices using their positions to protect the detractors. The Party Chairman said that the culprits should first be warned to desist from the slander campaign, failing which they would be detained. He said the R.C’s should renew the initial 48 hour detention orders on a given culprit as often as necessary to bring him under control. Under the law R.C’s can seek presidential approval to hold culprits for longer periods.

Responding to questions in a wide ranging 40 minute interview on Television Zanzibar, Mwalimu denied accusations that he was spearheading a crusade to turn the CCM Party into a Catholic Church movement. He said it was sinful for a grown-up person to tell lies and wondered how people could speak of such serious charges when both Christianity and Islam preached against lies.

Mwalimu also denied that he had influenced the appointment of Seif Shariff Hamad as Isles Chief Minister in 1984 or that of his successor, Dr. Omar Juma. “It was President Mwinyi who picked Seif. As for Dr. Omar, I did not even know him. Why give me credit for things I did not do, Mwalimu wondered. He admitted however that, after the 1985 elections he had strongly argued for the re-appointment of Seif following the misunderstandings created by Seif and his clique aimed at stopping the election of Zanzibar President Idris Abdul Wakil. “I did this not because I feared Seif but for national unity. If this was a miscalculation on my part, I accept the responsibility” he explained.

Various organs of the press outside Tanzania have been giving their views.

Sometime before these events African Concord stated that tension in Zanzibar was under control but that security measures had had to be taken in response to rumours of impending strife. It quoted President Mwinyi as having said that “The government is not taking any risks. Every possible precautionary measure is being taken to guarantee public safety and the security of the state”.

The Financial Times in its January 17 issue stated that Zanzibar feels that it deserves a larger slice of development aid than the US$ 50 million which was allocated to island projects in 1988-89. It quoted an economist in the Zanzibar Finance Ministry as complaining that the case put to the IMF was not based on the economy of Tanzania but on that of Tanganyika. But the newspaper went on to state that Zanzibar, despite a more liberal economic policy than that of the mainland, would be hard pushed to go it alone. ‘Zanzibar currently relies on import of food, electricity and fuel from the mainland for which it pays in shillings, while it spends more than a third of its foreign exchange on rice from Thailand for the discerning local palate. Perhaps more pertinently, Zanzibar does not control its own defence. To overthrow the government would be impossible. For the opposition leaders, who drink tamarind juice beneath the Sultan’s old palace and gaze out across the sea to the mainland, this must be all too clear.’

Africa Analysis, however, in its March 17 issue stated that it considered that Mwalimu Nyerere’s recent public utterances were unlikely to dampen widespread agitation against the Party and the Tanzanian authorities.
Editor

IF THE UNION HAD NEVER HAPPENED

Tanzanians (and friends of Tanzania) have just been celebrating the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Union between Tanganyika and Zanzibar which created Tanzania. It happened on April 26, 1964, and, by intent or by chance, a revealing new book has just been published (US Foreign Policy and Revolution: The Creation of Tanzania by Amrit Wilson. Pluto Press) which takes us back to the days of the founding of the Union.

The book gives us the author’s interpretation of the events of the time on the basis of declassified US State Department and CIA documents . It also provides (in an Introduction and an Appendix) a typically combative view of the events as seen by one of the main protagonists – A.M. Babu – although, apparently, he was away abroad at the time that the Union was created. We have dealt with this matter before in Bulletin No. 30.

The creation itself was clearly a matter of immense International importance at the time because, according to the book, the United States Government was intent on ensuring that, under no circumstances could Zanzibar, which only three months earlier had had a violent revolution, be allowed to become another Communist Cuba. It is important to remember that we are talking about the period when the ‘Cold War’ was at its coldest. Some of the most revealing documents indicate the intense world-wide repercussions of what was happening in Zanzibar:

February 4, 1964: US Secretary of State Dean Rusk to US Ambassador, Tanganyika: The President continues to be gravely concerned about the Zanzibar situation ….

February 5: US Secretary of State Rusk to British Prime Minister Douglas Home: I am sending you this personal message to let you know of my deep concern over the possibility that Communists may consolidate a strong position on Zanzibar ….

March 30: US President writes to British Prime Minister. (The British Government seems to have been remarkably resistant to American pressure on Britain to take action but the book does not contain any British official communications): The US ambassadors in Nairobi , Dar and Kampala have seen Kenyatta, Nyerere, Obote respectively and stressed desirability their acting promptly to make Karume (the then President of Zanzibar) see dangers of present trend towards Communist domination. State Department has instructed US Embassies approach Nigeria, Liberia, Ethiopia, Congo and Tunisia attempt to get them establish physical presence on Zanzibar. Following Embassies requested reemphasise to host governments desirability assigning resident representatives Zanzibar and offering aid if possible: Brussels, Copenhagen, Oslo, Paris, Rome, Stockholm, The Hague. Circular telegram sent following posts in attempt stimulate responsible Asian countries establish missions in Zanzibar: Tokyo, New Delhi, Canberra.

April 3: State Department cabled US ambassadors in Bangkok, Canberra, Kuala Lumpur, New Delhi, Tokyo, Wellington and Manila urging them to establish diplomatic presence Zanzibar soonest.

The book is not able of course to reveal the content of telegrams then being exchanged between Communist countries but we learn from it that the Soviet Trade Mission had agreed to purchase 500 tons of Zanzibar cloves, that China was providing US$ 500.000 in assistance and that the East Germans were very active in the housing field. There were also rumours about East bloc arms being introduced into the country. In the context of a cold war none of this is surprising. The book makes virtually no reference to any action the Eastern Bloc was presumably making to frustrate American aims. The book is concerned strictly with US interference in Zanzibar’s business. The author also seems to have been unsuccessful in making contact with any of the main participants in the events described except for Mr. Frank Carlucci who was then US Charge d’Affaires in Zanzibar and subsequently became President Reagan’s Secretary of Defence. He was interviewed by the author in August 1986 and described the person at the centre of the drama – the then President of Zanzibar, Karume – as “a very decent, somewhat phlegmatic man … I spent a lot of time with him on a one to one basis”. The book quotes however a cable from Mr. Carlucci to Washington on March 30th urging them to make an ‘impact offer’ (or, says the book, in plain language, a bribe ) to Mr. Karume to help separate him from ‘the radicals surrounding him’ . A possible offer might be a helicopter with an American pilot!

Babu asks why the US was more worried about a possible socialist success in Zanzibar, a small island perched off the coast of Tanganyika, than about Mozambique, Madagascar, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe or the Seychelles. The answer he says is to be found in the role Zanzibar has played historically in influencing neighbouring countries. It used to be said ‘When they flute in Zanzibar they dance in the lakes (Lake Victoria and Lake Tanganyika)’. According to Babu the Zanzibar revolution had been the first of its kind in modern Africa. ‘Zanzibar patriots did not revolt simply to overthrow a politically bankrupt government and a caricature monarchy. They revolted in order to Change the social system which oppressed them and for once to take the destiny of their history into their own hands … the revolution turned Zanzibar into that s ingle spark that would start a prairie fire.’

He goes on to write about the Union. ‘Even if the masterminds of the Union between Zanzibar and Tanganyika were motivated by the best intentions (the book implies that the Union was instigated largely by the US government) the manner in which it was effected was far from conducive to a stable unity’ … it was sprung on the people of the two countries in the form of an indigenous coup d’etat…. the arbitrariness, secrecy and resultant suspicion coupled with the colonial and alien nature of the constitution that was to bind the two countries together, all constituted essential ingredients for the tensions that have accompanied it ever since’

The American objective was achieved. Zanzibar did not become a Communist state. But one wonders what would have happened if it had. Would it have been a success? The book, which is dedicated to ‘the people of Zanzibar in solidarity with their struggle’, hints that it would have been. Babu writes lyrically about ‘a huge vista of hope and potential to create a new social order’. Would Zanzibar have become another Cuba? Would it have been totally isolated from most of its neighbours for a long period? Would the Soviet Union have been able to afford to give to another island aid on the massive scale it provides to Cuba? Would it have become a show place for socialist values? Would it have got into very serious trouble after being accused of fomenting revolution elsewhere in the continent? Armed intervention was a serious policy option being discussed by the western powers according to the book. Would Mwal1mu Nyerere have had an easier or a harder time in steering Tanganyika through all the problems it has faced in the last twenty-five years? Would Mr. Gorbachev have been visiting the island in 1989 and recommending its government to adopt Perestroika and Glasnost? We can never know.
David Brewin

IMPROVED LINKS BETWEEN ZANZIBAR AND THE MAINLAND

THE MAIDEN FLIGHT OF THE VIRGIN BUTTERFLY
The “Virgin Butterfly” picked up speed at the mouth of Dar es Salaam harbour and rose magnificently onto her hydrofoils. Onlookers along the shoreline gaped in astonishment and the crew of a nearby dhow leapt to their feet in panic. Inside the cabin, stewardesses began to sell soft drinks, and the Captain appeared on the video screen to welcome us aboard. The mainland coast rapidly shrank to a thin ribbon along the horizon.

I could not believe my own good fortune. On a short stop-over in Dar es Salaam, I had reluctantly ruled out the possibility of visiting friends in Zanzibar – so close yet so far ! Air Tanzania’s service to the island is notorious for being cancelled at the last minute. The old ferry “Mpundusi” sails only twice a week and takes six hours or more. By contrast, the 35 metre long hydrofoil, which can cruise at up to 95 kilometres an hour took just seventy five minutes. At the cost of US$ 20 each way (Shs 1500 for locals) my weekend visit was not just possible but completely effortless.

The combination of lush tropical vegetation, fine beaches and an old Arab town – full of haunting reminders of past trading wealth – must give Zanzibar tremendous tourist potential. Linked by plane to Nairobi and by hydrofoil to Mombasa as well as to Dar es Salaam, it could become an extra link in the tourist circuit that takes in the Kenyan coast, the Serengeti and Kilimanjaro. Tourist facilities on the island are limited but the Aga Khan has recently promised to finance a new luxury hotel.

First however, the Norwegian operating company and the shareholders in the new service (who include the Tanzania Tourist Corporation and a number of Zanzibar businessmen) must make the new service pay. To do so, they will have to stick to the timetable and operate close to the hydrofoil’s 330 seat capacity. If they succeed, and it is a tall order, then there is little doubt they will transform Zanzibar.

As for me, I had a marvellous and unexpected week-end break which I would thoroughly recommend to anyone.
James G. Copestake

ZANZIBAR – THE SITUATION DETERIORATES

Tensions in Zanzibar have continued despite the recent change in Chief Minister (Bulletin No. 30). They reached crisis point on May 13, 1988 when a large demonstration (mostly of young people) approached State House in Zanzibar and presidential guards opened fire. Two people were killed and several others seriously injured. Damage was done to an office building and Party vehicles.

Tanzania’s very open press has covered the story in some detail. The following items are taken from various articles in the Daily and Sunday News.

April 9. KAWAWA EXPOSES ANTI-PARTY MOVES. CCM Party Secretary General
had stated in Pemba that some individuals in the Zanzibar Government were opposing the Party. Some people had even torn up Party flags and were threatening the people.

April 11. ENEMIES NOISE WON’T AMEND CONSTITUTION. Mr. Kawawa had been asked in Zanzibar if the Constitution could be amended to allow more Zanzibaris on the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the Party. Yes, he had replied, but only if it was the result of a well discussed and fully considered need. The need could not come from outside the country. Mr Kawawa complained that there had been lots of literature discrediting Tanzania’s top leaders particularly Party Chairman Nyerere.

April 15. EXPOSE AGITATORS. Zanzibar Chief Minister Dr. Omar Ali Juma had urged Zanzibaris to expose agitators so that the Government could take action against them.

Friday May 13 after prayers. The demonstration.

May 15. SEIF HAMAD, SIX OTHERS FIRED. PROBE ON ZANZIBAR STARTS. Former Chief Minister Seif Hamad the Zanzibar Minister for Agriculture and Livestock Development (who was interviewed in Bulletin No. 27), the Zanzibar Deputy Minister for Finance, Planning and Economic Affairs (both of the latter are also members of Tanzania’s NEC), the Deputy Speaker of the Zanzibar House of Representatives, a Union MP and two members of the Zanzibar House had all been sacked. This action had been taken as a result of a report submitted to the NEC by Mr. Kawawa after his April visit to Zanzibar. These people were said to have worked to destabilise the Union and the Party.

May 16. ISLES DEMO CULPRITS FACE GOVERNMENT ACTION. President Mwinyi had announced that those who had participated in the demonstration would be punished. Apparently the demonstrators had attacked remarks made by Mrs Sofia Kawawa. Chairman of the UWT (the Tanzanian Women’s organisation) in Dodoma on May 7th to the effect that it was high time Tanzania critically examined customary laws, traditions and Islamic practices which oppressed women. President Mwinyi said that Mrs Kawawa’s views had been personal and in no way reflected the position of the Party and Government. Three Muslim Sheikhs had admitted to devoting the greater pan of their sermons on the day of the demonstration to Mrs Kawawa’ s remarks.

May 18. WAKIL BLAMES EXILES FOR ILLEGAL DEMO. Zanzibar President Wakil had said that self-exiled Government critics tried to use religion in their schemes to recolonise the Isles. They had made great inroads in the Civil Service and had polarised it into opposing camps. He had directed the Security Services to crack down on unruly youths.

May 19. 29 ISLES ILLEGAL DEMONSTRATORS APPEAR IN COURT. Eight people in Pemba had also been questioned about an attempt to set fire to a Government vehicle. Zanzibaris holding anti-Government video and radio cassettes were threatened by the Government with legal action.

May 21. SIEVE CCM MEMBERS. The Zanzibar Chief Minister had called for a mechanism to review regularly CCM member’s records to ensure their loyalty to the Party.

May 23. REPS (in the Zanzibar House of Representatives) SALUTE NEC ON EXPULSIONS (from the party). We must stop the habit, one Representative had said, that the Mainland is all out to swallow Zanzibar.

May 28. TEAM TO PROBE ISLES DEMO. A seven-member Special Commission had been set up by the Government and would be under the Chairmanship of the former Chief justice of Zanzibar, Mr. Abdulwahib Masoud Borafya.

June 4. ISLES CONCERNED OVER PLOT TO BURN CLOVES.

June 15. COURT FREES 15 IN ISLES ILLEGAL DEMO. Fifteen of the 43 alleged demonstrators had been set free due to lack of evidence against them.

June 21. NO COMPROMISE WAKIL TELLS ENEMIES OF UNITY

Africa Events in its June/July issue, under the heading ‘The Twenty-Five Year Itch’ wrote that “A twenty five year itch is a nuisance some people have learnt to take with stoic dignity. A quarter of a century of life with a bone stuck in one’s craw is, however, a different kettle of fish … When Julius Nyerere cajoled Abeid Karume, Zanzibar’s first President, into signing the articles of unity in April 1964, little did he imagine that the tiny offshore islands, no bigger than the smallest county on the mainland, were to be his eternal bugbear. The demonstration ….. was yet another flare to illuminate a long-standing trend of political tension in the rather wobbly relationship between the central authorities in Dar and the people of the islands …. most of the islanders are for the Union but in their lexicon, integration (with the Mainland) is a dirty word ….. Chief Minister Dr. Omar Juma has conceded that following the recent unrest, Party membership had plumetted by 85% .. “with this loss of support for the Party and the breakdown of intelligence gathering through the ten cell leaders the chances of influencing the islanders …. seem dicey.”

Under the heading ‘Rumble on the Island’ African Concord (June 14) wrote that “The Spice Island of Zanzibar is becoming a cake too hot to be handled by Tanzania’s Union Government, the Isles Government itself and the ruling CCM Party.”

According to Africa Confidential (June 17) “Zanzibar is now presenting President Mwinyi with his most serious challenge yet – and no one in power seems to have any idea what to do about it.” – Editor

ZANZIBAR – GOVERNMENT CHANGES

Zanzibar was hitting the headlines in the media in Tanzania throughout the month of January this year:
Sunday News, January 3. WAKIL WARNS DETRACTORS
Daily News, January 4. VIJANA HAIL SPEECH
Daily News, January 6. WAKIL REAFFIRMS ISLES UNITY
Daily News. January 6. EXPOSE DETRACTORS ISLANDERS URGE xxxxx
Daily News, January 13. PLOT TO INVADE ZANZIBAR REVEALED
Daily News. January 23. WAKIL SUSPENDS CABINET
Sunday News. January 24. WAKIL RESTRUCTURES ZANZIBAR MINISTRIES
Daily News. January 26. WAKIL NAMES NEW CHIEF MINISTER
Daily News. January 27. WAKIL PICKS NEW CABINET
Daily News. January 29. WAKIL NAMES PRINCIPAL SECRETARIES

WHAT HAPPENED?
Readers of this Bulletin will recall that developing differences of opinion in Zanzibar first came into the public eye in July 1987. We quoted from a Daily News column (Bulletin No 28) to the effect that Zanzibar Chief Minister, Seif Shariif Hamad had “blamed the restive political situation on disgruntled elements who are disillusioned by the socio-political changes which have steadily whittled away their personal prestige and economic interests”. Mr Hamad had denied that by accepting aid from Gulf countries or by liberalising trade the Zanzibar Government had abandoned socialism or compromised on the Isles’ sovereignty.

Readers will recall also that political rivalry between Mr. Hamad and the President of Zanzibar, Mr. Idris Wakil, goes back at least to the time before the last Presidential elections in 1985 when Mr. Hamad was beaten by Mr. Wakil as Party candidate for the Presidency of Zanzibar. Mr. Hamad received 80% support in Pemba; Mr. Wakil got almost the same in the other island, Unguja. The fact that Mr. Wakil was subsequently elected President by a very small majority (Bulletin No 23) indicated the strength of Mr. Hamad’s support.

The subsequent appointment by President Wakil of Hr. Hamad as Chief Minister was clearly a brave attempt to ensure Zanzibar’s future unity. For it to succeed however the two main parties (Wakil and Hamad) had to work closely in tandem. This apparently did not happen.

And so we come to the bombshell of January 12, 1988. President Wakil revealed that the Government had information that funds were being secretly collected to buy arms and hire mercenaries to invade Zanzibar. He said that those behind the plan were going about telling people that they wanted to liberate the island from foreign rulers. He reminded the people that Zanzibar was part of the United Republic of Tanzania and that any invasion of the Isles would be an invasion of Tanzania as a whole.

WHY THE CHANGES?
Observers of Zanzibar’s always volatile political scene have suggested that various factors may have influenced the recent Government changes.

It was Pemban nationalism say some. Many people in Pemba have long felt that their island is neglected by those in authority in Zanzibar. It was Zanzibar nationalism say others. A feeling that Zanzibar is an unequal partner in the Union.

Or, perhaps the changes were linked to different attitudes to Tanzania’s trade liberalisation policies and, in particular, to the former Chief Minister’s encouragement of increased Omani and Arab investment in the islands.

To Mlamali Adam in Africa Events it was a case of obsession with the past and racism. “The summary dismissal of Chief Minister Seif Shariff Hamadi, the purge of his presumed sympathisers from the Civil Service coupled with the ill-disguised court intrigues are a sideshow, a diversion even, from what lies at the heart of the matter. The trouble with the islands, or with some of its leaders at any rate, is obsession with the past and – not to put too fine a point on it – with racism . . …. The truth is that Hamadi was unwanted from the beginning. Coming from Mtambwe, Pemba, he is the wrong shade of black, has wrong ancestors and his parent’s relatives made the mistake of enrolling in the wrong Party, all of thirty years ago. Therefore, Seif, like blacks in South Africa, must now pay for ‘original sin'”.

Tanzania’s official News Agency, SHIHATA, was clearly angry. In an article headed ‘Hands Off Zanzibar’, published at the beginning of the January events, it wrote:

“The people of Zanzibar last Monday spat on the face of the country’s detractors when they staged a mammoth rally in support of President Wakil’s speech to the House of Representantives. In the speech, the President decried elements of confusion inside and outside the islands ‘and the mainland and called for collective determination to frustrate the detractor’s moves.

In a show of support unprecedented in the history of their young country, the Zanzibaris called for the blood of the divisive elements, urging the Government to expose them, remove those inside the country from their responsible positions and punish them to save the people from unnecessary problems. In a no-nonsense speech, which registered it’s message in no uncertain terms, Wakil warned the detractors that the people of Zanzibar were wide awake and were waiting for them. The people were alert and would crush any move to undermine their unity under the leadership of the CCM Party. He added that some external enemies were using local agents and the media to create dissent between the people of Pemba and Zanzibar as well as between the Isles and the Tanzania mainland. Whatever their pretexts, he said, those trying to destabilize the political setting in Zanzibar were colonial agents who wanted nothing less than the re-introduction of foreign rule and feudalism. Zanzibar had not achieved miracles (in recent years) ….. but the basis for an egalitarian society had been firmly laid and is discernible through improved health, education, better communications and transport, reliable power supply and enhanced agricultural and industrial development. Above all, there had been the unprecedented revolution in the democratic process whereby, now, people had a full share in the decision-making mechanism, whose policies are governed and implemented by the people’s own institutions”.

The SHIHATA article concluded with these words: “And those inside the country who think everything is going wrong in Zanzibar are very free to leave and go to join their mentors. Good riddance!”

THE CHANGES
Mr. Seif Shariff Hamad was replaced as Chief Minister by Dr. Omar Ali Juma (47) who was previously Principal Secretary in the Zanzibar Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock Development and Natural Resources and also comes from Pemba. Dr. Juma obtained a Doctorate in Veterinary Medicine from the Moscow Veterinary Academy together with an MSc degree during the period 1961 to 1968. He took a post-graduate degree in Tropical Veterinary Medicine in Edinburgh between 1976 and 77. He has also studied at Reading University. He is married with eight children.

The new Cabinet has 11 Ministers with 4 new faces. Five former Ministers were dropped. The Cabinet now includes the following persons:

Omar Ali Juma – Chief Minister (new)
Idi Pandu Hassan – Minister of State, President’s Office and Chairman of the Revolutionary Council
Taimur Saleh Juma – Communications and Transport (new)
Jaffar Mfaume Ali – Finance and Planning (new)
Rufeya Juma Mbarouk – Minister of State, Chief Minister’s Office (new)
Soud Yussuf Mgeni – Agriculture, Livestock Development and Natural Resources
Maulid Makame Abdullah – Health
Abubakar Khamis Bakary – Water, Construction and Energy
Ramadhani A Shaaban – Information, Culture and Tourism
Abdullah S Mugheiri – Trade and Industries
Omar Ramadhani Mapuri – Education

AND THE SITUATION NOW
At the time of writing – early April 1988 – calm seems to have returned to Zanzibar. If indeed it ever departed.

The new Chief Minister appears to have been making a good impression with an energetic and no-nonsense approach. In recent speeches he has been quoted in the Daily News as having said : “The time has gone for the Youth Organisation VIJANA to prepare long and impressive messages at public rallies”.

“Zanzibaris are free to criticise both the Isles’ and Union Governments provided they use the proper fora. Grievances should be put down in writing, with proper details and genuine names if they are to be treated seriously”

“The economic situation is so bad that the time might come when the Government will fail to meet it’s obligations to the people … People must increase the spirit of hard work. There are people who right now do no work deceiving themselves into thinking they are boycotting the Government”

TO SUMMARISE
It seems that there has been too much political passion in Zanzibar during recent weeks and that there is a good chance of things now settling down. The former Chief Minister appears to have been over-ambitious in his pursuit of his policies, somewhat impetuous and lacking in the spirit of compromise necessary if progress is to be made in a divided country. One must wonder whether, in certain of his public statements, the President also might have over-reacted.

Meanwhile, in London, senior Government officials, asked to comment on the Zanzibar events, pointed out that what had happened was that a new Chief Minister had been appointed and a few Cabinet changes had been made. There was nothing unusual in that. In neighbouring Kenya, at about the same time, the country’s Vice-President had also been removed from office and given a post of lower status.

And the Zanzibar Government has indicated that the former Chief Minister remains a free man and is continuing to represent his Mtambwe constituency in the Zanzibar House of Representatives.
David Brewin